I think you answered to your question; measure incident at the shadow, expose -3 stops ?
Sunny 16 says 4 stops from sunny to open shadow...
Still those are approximations. We all know that negative film has an ample latitude and it is possible to make take a good shot without metering, AA made his most famous image (Moonrise) with no meter...
But Adams also used the spot meter intensively, John Sexton also uses it:
Photography is an ample platform allowing room for unlimited ways to craft images...
We have to admire how Sexton controls his workflow, but also how Sally Man sometimes refuses to use a meter.
Still, to learn, there is nothing like having accurately metered the scene and taking notes. Later, when judging the result, we know how each spot resulted from its particular over/under exposure, providing totally precise feedback. From that feedback next time, after slecting the exposure, we can check with the spot meter how each spot will be over/under exposed, so we may make a good prediction.
In LF often we want to make accurate predictions, because an LF shot usually commands a way larger effort and cost. But of course this is not the general rule.
My view is that this is not about determining what is the best way to meter.
IMO a LF photographer should master all the possible ways to meter, from smelling the scene to accurate spot metering, including of course Sunny 16. Later one does what he wants, but he does it after treasuring a solid criterion.