All spot-meter metering is guessing.
IMO it's the counter, and this is seen when metering a challenging scene, let's see a "relatively challenging" scene.

https://www.nickcarverphotography.com/art/prints/
Incident meter: Total failure, we have a total brick in the hand, we cannot measure incident light on subjects. We have to guess the exposure. No river in the middle this time, still we can go inside the shop to meter, then climbing to reach the sign and later walking to the car...
Averaged meter: What overexposure we'll have in the shop ? in the sign ? will the sign get toasted if a Velvia shot? What detail in the shadows ? We have to guess all that !!! the gues may work... or not... then better if we bracket...
Spot meter: We may adjust -1 for the ground under the shop, then we may inspect the shop and the sign, also the car and the deep shadows to know their local exposure, perhaps we would rectify the manual exposure to balance well the exposure to get the subjects on spot. We know if we are to toast something and up to what amount, we now how the shadows will be. We were able to take a wise decision from precise information.
It will always be hard for the beginner and can seem effortless to the experienced LF photographer.
My 10 years old daughter exposes in spot mode, it took me 15 min to make her undestand it with the DSLR.
If someone if not able to nail an exposure from spot readings better he spends 15min in learning that before going to LF, with a DSLR or even with an smartphone one learns that instantly, then a film roll should be shot to see how under/over exposed levels in an spot results... taking notes.
At all, not saying that one has to use a metering mode or other, this is personal... only saying two things:
> In LF, if not knowing how a metering way works... then learn it... this is very basic knowledge, sheets are expensive and one has to know what he does... If possible, one has to be proficient in incident, averaged and spot, later use what you want.
> In some situations you may need the spot reading of some subject, if we don't have it then we can take some risk making a guess.
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