Incandescent/halogen ban?

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pentaxuser

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When a manufacture quotes 50,000 hours that does not mean any given LED will last 50,000 hours. It means in a population of lamps every 50,000 hours a failure occurs. So if you have 10 LED lamps in your house expect one failure every 5000 hours. (50,000/10).

So in the total population of LEDs which may be say a million Does the expected failure rate become 50,000 /100,000,000?

I has always assumed that this was an average life before failure figure so 50,000 hours represented bulbs that lasted longer than 50,000 and some that lasted less

Thanks

pentaxuser
 

DREW WILEY

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Most LED bulbs being marketed to consumers through common retail outlets are just plain BS labeled; so don't expect anything remotely close to the rated hours of usage they imply. You get what you pay for. But the statistical odds of individual components in an large composite LED array going bad are probably beyond anyone's range of experience here. It would taking from ferreting out of the most reputable primary sources, and seeing is they have published documented tests or not. There are just so many variables of quality control, wiring, ambient heat, specific application. etc. I'd distrust any generic answer.
 
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Sirius Glass

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Most LED bulbs being marketed to consumers through common retail outlets are just plain BS labeled; so don't expect anything remotely close to the rated hours of usage they imply. You get what you pay for. But the statistical odds of individual components in an large composite LED array going bad are probably beyond anyone's range of experience here. It would taking from ferreting out of the most reputable primary sources, and seeing is they have published documented tests or not. There are just so many variables of quality control, wiring, ambient heat, specific application. etc. I'd distrust any generic answer.

Stated more politely than I would have. The emphasis is on "just plain BS".
 

DREW WILEY

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I'm used to it. A tube of caulking which guarantees lifetime performance costs $1.99. If you are unsatisfied with the product, simply return in person the unopened tube along with your original receipt to the customer service desk in Kabul, Afghanistan. They will gladly give you a free replacement tube. So it helps to bring your focus loupe with you when you shop, or preferably a microscope to read the fine print. You also need to know what "lifetime" means - life of the product? But if you choose the kind of caulk used for commercial construction, which costs five times more per tube, it comes with no warranty claims at all, but does have a lengthy tech sheet available with all kinds of distinct engineering and application specs. Anything so cheap that it's too good to be true ... well.... When it comes to consumer lightbulbs, I alway bring along a portable math calculator with a BS Coefficient button somewhere on it, to figure out the real number of minutes it might last.
 
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I'd say camera choice is a more relevant analogy, Alan. There have always been consumer cameras, right down to disposable cardboard ones, versus pro gear expected to last reliably for decades. Now its short-term cellphones versus just about everything else, although an amount of cheap plastic film camera mfg is still going on. Being a tool distributor, I was keenly aware of the distinction. I've known of workmen being fired on the spot for bringing a home center power tool to the jobsite. "how ya gonna get any real work done with that thing?" Often the most expensive option, twenty times more expensive, would pay for itself within two days due to its dramatically better efficiency. The fact a cheap substitute might be warranty replaced for free, over and over again if necessary, means less than zero if the labor rate is tied up running back and forth to Cheapo Depot or whatever getting replacements. The junk version ends up being the most expensive option nearly every time.

And in fact, many junk "warranties" have some very deceptive fine print, not in fact always honored. For example, you buy a tool with a "lifetime replacement warranty", and they change the color of the switch or some other silly thing every few months, and with it, alter the model number too. So you bring in your failed tool, and they tell you that specific model no longer exists, so cannot be warranty replaced. Happens all the time.

Likewise, I don't want to spend a whole lot of time and money and gasoline expense, let alone days of strenuous backpacking, guessing whether or not my camera is going to keep operating properly. Nor do I want enlarger bulbs going brown and popping during printing sessions, especially making big expensive prints. Needing to replace a bulb once a decade on average, for any of my enlargers, is certainly tolerable, and what I'm accustomed to. But the cheap versions of the same bulbs sometimes don't last half an hour. So it's important to recognize such qualitative distinctions, and whom sells which.

I agree with you. I thought I made the distinction between commercial/institutional (or professional) use vs. residential (or personal).
 
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I'm used to it. A tube of caulking which guarantees lifetime performance costs $1.99. If you are unsatisfied with the product, simply return in person the unopened tube along with your original receipt to the customer service desk in Kabul, Afghanistan. They will gladly give you a free replacement tube. So it helps to bring your focus loupe with you when you shop, or preferably a microscope to read the fine print. You also need to know what "lifetime" means - life of the product? But if you choose the kind of caulk used for commercial construction, which costs five times more per tube, it comes with no warranty claims at all, but does have a lengthy tech sheet available with all kinds of distinct engineering and application specs. Anything so cheap that it's too good to be true ... well.... When it comes to consumer lightbulbs, I alway bring along a portable math calculator with a BS Coefficient button somewhere on it, to figure out the real number of minutes it might last.

YouTube has been very helpful in learning how to repair things and pick out the right equipment. Of course, you have to read between the lines and be very selective on who and what you watch.

Speaking of caulking, if I may divert a moment, the caulking between my kitchen sink granite counter and the exterior wall keeps opening (cracking), probably due to the changes in expansion due to heat and cold outside. What's the best caulking (in off-white color) for this application?
 

Don_ih

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Thanks Don, I'll check it out.

As for commercial construction, Tremco 558 and similar is the standard for exterior grade caulking and is (by volume) cheaper to buy in the big sausages than buying the plastic tubes of DAP (aka, Crap) at Home Depot.
 

DREW WILEY

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We classified Dap with a word which rhymes with it, which Don already mentioned. I refused to stock it; but the youngsters who now run the show don't know the difference, so do. But for exterior caulking we stocked at least a dozen pro brands, including four moisture-cure urethanes in multiple colors each, kraton-based ones too, terpolymers. Acrylic caulks were way down down the line. I once asked a GE engineer what they really meant by a siliconized acrylic caulk (versus actual silicone); he replied, "Once in a while we blow a few molecules of silicone on it from across the room", cynical himself about it. Quart tubes were more popular than sausages. The expansion joint trade pumped theirs from A&B drums. Countertop caulks need to have mildewcide added and be a little firmer than regular caulks. There are also tintable versions of those, for better color matching.

For some my high-wattage colorheads, I used special high-temp aerospace silicones. It's amazing what was available around here back then. We possibly had the largest retail selection of caulks and sealants in the entire country. Two big high-rise and expansion joint commercial caulk distributors were only a few miles away - pre-catalyzed refrigerated tubes, A&B pumped brands & application equip, all kinds of sausages. Across the Bay in Silicon Valley was a supplier for specialty aerospace and technical sealants. I handled the largest pro equipment selection for removing the stuff. We also dominated the window repair business in the whole of northern Calif, as well as being a major door & window seller. Plus sold to the military and military contractors clear across the Pacific. So I made myself and my projects a guinea pig for just about every kind of caulk or sealant that came into my hands, sometimes with real regrets afterwards! But that's how one sorts out the facts from the BS. I tried to test every single product we sold. Nowadays nobody even bothers to read the label.
 
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Chan Tran

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Why do they have to ban them? I've been buying LED for most of my lighting need but for some application the incandescents are better. I bought a number of $400 plus LED fixture and they failed in a year or so. It's not so much the LED went bad but the driver did.
 

DREW WILEY

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The phase-out of traditional residential tungsten light bulbs is relative to reducing the cumulative energy consumption of the entire country, when there are now more energy efficient alternatives to a number of applications, including lighting. But again, this has nothing to do with specialty bulbs like enlargers use. There are pros and cons to the transition, but it's inevitable, and was legally mandated quite awhile back, with a temporary grace period, which is now running out.
 
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This is the siliconized acrylic caulk used by the installer originally that cracked.
 

DREW WILEY

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That whole class of caulk is an inexpensive compromise, Alan. There is little solids in them, so they shrink over time and embrittle too. Hard to say who made that particular brand; they probably didn't do it themselves, but farmed it out. And once you add ordinary paint pigment to them, especially if too much, that introduces a further compromise into the performance. True silicones only come in a limited number of colors. Sashco makes a tintable version too. They have an outdoor product they advertise as having a modulus or stretch capacity of about 1000%, and it's true, for about a week that is, and then it get stiff within six months. So again, one needs to have a calculator along with a BS coefficient function.
 
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MattKing

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I never thought I would ever have the need to post this:
"Folks, please start your own thread about "caulk" - either in the Lounge, or outside Photrio."
I just hope no one is reviewing this thread with a text to voice reader - that last statement would be easy to misinterpret!
 
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Cinema

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Drew is really on his game… used dap once and NEVER again. I’m a lowly homeowner and switched to GE 100% silicone stuff and haven’t had an issue…but now i’m curious. Whats the best caulk a man can get? And what color should i be buying?

Back to to bulbs—i found a couple sites you can still get great deals on incandescents for a month or two until they go away. Build.com and 1000bulbs.com . Put your lights on dimmers and you can probably buy a lifetime supply from build.com for less than $100. Dimming incandescents make them look warmer and exponentially prolong their life
 
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Kilgallb

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So in the total population of LEDs which may be say a million Does the expected failure rate become 50,000 /100,000,000?

I has always assumed that this was an average life before failure figure so 50,000 hours represented bulbs that lasted longer than 50,000 and some that lasted less

Thanks

pentaxuser
50000/1000000 which mean a failure every three minutes.

If the manufacture sell 50,000 lamps there will be one failure every hour of operation. No one operates a lamp 24/7. If most operate 4 hours a day, a lamp would fail every 24/4=:6x3 or every18 minutes.

It will take many years for all the lamps to fail. You might own the the unlucky first lamp or the lucky last lamp. Most will own the mean or average Middle lamps.
 

tih

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If the manufacture sell 50,000 lamps there will be one failure every hour of operation. No one operates a lamp 24/7. If most operate 4 hours a day, a lamp would fail every 24/4=:6x3 or every18 minutes.

Not really. Hardware failure statistics tend to follow what we call a bathtub curve: relatively many very early failures, then a long period of few failures, and then a high failure rate past a certain age. The curve looks sort of like \______/ , thus the name.

-tih
 

Kilgallb

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Not really. Hardware failure statistics tend to follow what we call a bathtub curve: relatively many very early failures, then a long period of few failures, and then a high failure rate past a certain age. The curve looks sort of like \______/ , thus the name.

-tih

Wiebold curve actually.
 

Ivo Stunga

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Second, specialty bulbs are exempt from the incandescent ban

Came to verify this. Can buy specialty bulbs no problem. When it becomes problem, you just import from a country where that isn't a problem.
 

DREW WILEY

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Alan, you should have phrased your question, "I have a granite darkroom sink that's leaking, but can't see where because my room bulb is out...". Next time I'll put a coin in the parking meter.
 

Helge

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CRI is BS.
Incandescent ban is BS.

CRI is based on very naive, old fashioned positivist color sensitometry. Also totally neglecting decades of new knowledge on psycho optics.

For private lighting (would never argue against LED use in liminary space, roads and industry), the change from filament to LED has immediate energy savings in the range of 3 - 5 percent.
So pretty close to nothing in the grand scheme. And that is not including the increases in production complications and waste handling.

What’s more filament bulbs contribute to
indoor heating in the cold months and at night where they are used the most.

Worst of all black body/incandescence light is what humans have coevolved with. Lots of IR and a smooth drooping spectrum is very likely a hugely integrated part not only of the circadian rhythm but also for a lot of other functions in skin and eye regulated. Stuff we are only starting to dip into.

The ban on filament lamps is purely a symbolic political move for the sheep and virtue signalers.
And of course as always they places that would really matter like heavy industry and container freight get off the hook for another couple of decades.
 
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