So in the first excellent print how far away was the not quite the first excellent print and the better by a bit than the first excellent print from that chosen? The corollary of course being if either of those had been chosen instead how much practical and theoretical, on speed, difference would ensue? Is it implied by PE giving a, and the term safety margin is contentious I know, an extra one third of stop that we are that close? If so I commend the process and am not surprised a large statistical sample was required to obtain a valid result.
The answer is it depends. Such things are always nuanced and in need of qualification. Some of the graphs already presented in this thread can help answer your question. The exposure vs quality curve that ic-racer uploaded is one.
It has the added factor of quality with degree of enlargement. This indicates that quality falls off faster for smaller format films with increased exposure because smaller format films require a larger degree of enlargement. The first excellent print exposure is shown just below the top of the curve. The two safety factors of 2.5 and 4 represent what the range of what the assumed safety factor was for the pre-1960 ASA speed standard. In Safety Factors in Camera Exposures, Nelson noted that is was "
a remarkable fact that the exact size of the safety factor has not been definitely known." Flare played a factor. He later concludes the safety factor was 2.5. There is only one ISO speed method for all general purpose film formats. Something to consider when listening to exposure advice.
Here's an example of print judgement tests from the same paper showing the position of the first excellent print exposure and the metered exposure. Please note that the metered exposure represents the pre-1960 ASA standard that had speeds one stop slower than the post-1960 standard. In other words, it is one stop further to the right than a metered exposure today.
Here is a copy of the same graph as from Fig. 20.5 in
The Theory of the Photographic Process page example. It is from
The Evaluation of Negative Film Speeds in Terms of Print Quality pt 1 by Loyd Jones which is the paper on the First Excellent Print test. I believe the exposures are at 1/2 stop intervals. According to Jones, "
the print quality improves somewhat slowly for the first two or three prints (to the left of the point designated by B), then quite rapidly (to the point designated by A), after which the change in print quality is relatively small and somewhat uncertain in sign. In the region to the right of A there is considerable disagreement among observers as to whether the general tendency is somewhat upward or somewhat downward, or possibly oscillating about a horizontal line, as indicated by the solid curve."
The current ISO standard places the exposure at approximately 1 1/3 stops above the fractional gradient point. I say approximately because it assumes a certain amount of flare. It the flare factor is higher, the exposure will fall higher on the curve and if lower, it will fall closer to the fractional gradient point. If no flare existed, it would fall about 1/3 of a stop above it. This might sound right for people who understand ΔX is 0.296 Δlog-H from the fix density point of 0.10 over Fb+f in the ISO standard which should make a no flare exposure fall on the fractional gradient point. The extra 1/3 stop comes from the 0.80 speed constant in the speed equation. It increases exposure by 1/3 stop over where the speed point is measured.
This is a graph I put showing the ISO speed standard and its relationship to the fractional gradient point which can be determined using the Delta-X criterion.
As mentioned before, film speeds were approximately one stop slower before 1960. Average flare was one stop higher. So exposures before 1960 with uncoated lenses could be 2 stops higher than today. People who use Zone System testing find EIs 1/2 to one stop higher than the ISO rating. This comes not from determining personal film speed but by a different method of testing. They are basically rating their film at the pre-1960 levels.
There is a lot of latitude in the over exposure side of negatives. More for larger formats than smaller. There isn't as much underexposure latitude. Rating the film an extra 1/3 stop in one sense is a good idea. In another, the influence of variations in metering and luminance range usually exceed such a small adjustment. Something usually not mentioned. Shadow placement is based on the average subject Luminance range of 2.20. This is the assumption of where the shadow will fall from the metered exposure (which is Δ1.0 log-H to the right of the 0.10 fix density point). If the luminance range is longer or shorter than the average, the shadows will fall on a different place on the curve.