Silver deficit continues

[Alan Johnson]

SILVER INDUSTRIAL DEMAND ROSE 11 PERCENT TO POST A NEW RECORD IN 2023 | The Silver Institute

www.silverinstitute.org

There are some reports of increased demand in China and other Asian countries.
About $600 million worth used in photography in 2023.

 

[abruzzi]

It shows a slight drop in photographic demand--27.5 million ounces in 2022 fell to 27 million ounces in 2023.

 

[koraks]

It shows a slight drop in photographic demand--27.5 million ounces in 2022 fell to 27 million ounces in 2023.

I assume photographic includes things like medical and industrial xray, which are likely declining. Color paper was probably also declining slightly in this period.
It would be interesting to see how the $600M breaks down into applications, but that kind of information is likely not available for free.

Edit: actually, there's some information in the pdf that reports on the survey (page 55):
* Medical xray is indeed declining as I guessed above
* Industrial xray however remained stable
* Sales of color paper apparently rose by about 2% in contrast with what I suggested above
* Sales of film rose by 3% (a far cry from the "double digit growth" I've seen touted by some people over the past few years)
* Demand from the motion picture industry remained stable at a low level

 

[Agulliver]

Sales of film, or sales of silver for film rose 3%?

 

[koraks]

Sales of film, or sales of silver for film rose 3%?

From the source I provided:

demand for consumer and professional rolls rose by 3%, and sales of color negative paper were up by 2%, though all remained historically low

So if you want to nitpick, you could argue that only demand for film rose, so we don't actually know about supply to meet that demand, and it's also quite conceivable that production was massively up or down depending on how stock developed. But taking a more realistic stance, I think it's safe to assume that film sales rose by about 3% and that manufacturing followed suit, and that the silver content of film did not change appreciably.

 

[brbo]

Sales of film, or sales of silver for film rose 3%?

One is probably a good proxy for the other.

Demand for film was obviously still there in 2023. It was largely "satisfied" by price increase(s). Fuji practically exited traditional film business (concentrating on Instax) so maybe others actually did see double-digit growth, like Kodak in colour film and other producers in BW because Kodak's situation with finishing capacities requires them to prioritize colour film and leave BW marker largely to other producers...

 

[koraks]

Fuji practically exited traditional film business (concentrating on Instax) so maybe others actually did see double-digit growth

That would have been prior to 2022. Fuji color negative hasn't been widely available for a few years now.

 

[RalphLambrecht]

SILVER INDUSTRIAL DEMAND ROSE 11 PERCENT TO POST A NEW RECORD IN 2023 | The Silver Institute

www.silverinstitute.org

There are some reports of increased demand in China and other Asian countries.
About $600 million worth used in photography in 2023.

percentage-wise silver is gaining returns similar to gold lately, 20% the last month alone and 20% in the last year!

 

[geirtbr]

Hm! Didnt know medical xray still was used! I thought most was digitized long ago.
The report doesnt state its sources, so their estimate on film sales and color paper sales may be a lot of guesswork. Its not given that Fujifilm would be more transparent to them about their sales and production figures than what they are to the public.

 

[brbo]

That would have been prior to 2022. Fuji color negative hasn't been widely available for a few years now.

That is true. But, did someone really claim double digits sales growth even in 2023? 'Selling' that kind of information in 2023 with all the price increases must've been even harder than 30+ EUR roll of E100...

 

[koraks]

But, did someone really claim double digits sales growth even in 2023?

More or less; if you root around on the forum a bit, you can find remarks along these lines. But I'd rather not start an argument on this; what I think is important to note here is that it's a fairly reliable insight into what's really happening at a macro level.

their estimate on film sales and color paper sales may be a lot of guesswork.

Educated guesses, though. They seem to rely on (and are sponsored by) major silver metal supply chain actors. You don't actually have to talk to e.g. Fuji directly in order to figure out approximately how much paper they must be producing. If you know how much silver goes in, you already know quite a bit. And there are ways to figure that out if you know the right parties.

 

[geirtbr]

More or less; if you root around on the forum a bit, you can find remarks along these lines. But I'd rather not start an argument on this; what I think is important to note here is that it's a fairly reliable insight into what's really happening at a macro level.

It may be be double digit growth in value, not in volume, while the report concerns volume. It is known that film producers struggle to gear up their production of color films.

 

[koraks]

It may be be double digit growth in value, not in volume, while the report concerns volume.

The wording was overly optimistic IMO. Again, it's on the forum if you look for it.

 

[ant!]

Hm! Didnt know medical xray still was used! I thought most was digitized long ago.

It might be digital in North America and Europe, but in other regions film x-ray is still used more commonly. A friend who was operating an MRI here in Montreal had to learn during her studies (I guess around 15yrs ago?) all the darkroom x-ray stuff (and hated it due to the dark), but this has likely switched all to film by now.

 

[Luckless]

Hm! Didnt know medical xray still was used! I thought most was digitized long ago.
The report doesnt state its sources, so their estimate on film sales and color paper sales may be a lot of guesswork. Its not given that Fujifilm would be more transparent to them about their sales and production figures than what they are to the public.

Film xrays still have their uses, and I know some dental clinics in Canada were still using film simply because they already had a setup for it paid for, and their monthly costs in film and supplies was less than upgrading to the most basic digital option and all the systems that go with it.

Plus you still get a few people who just like their film more than digital.


Other points I remember from a random conversation with someone who was working with some medical relief program:
- Film can be read with almost any source for light in a pinch, and takes less power to run off batteries than a computer xray system. Useful if you're working somewhere prone to rolling blackouts or other unreliable power issues.
- A cabinet of film records aren't a target if a clinic gets robbed. Fancy looking computer gear is.
- Film doesn't care about cyber security.
- Training for handling film is fairly universal between any different system. Digital xray software can radically change after an update to the same system, let alone different vendors.
- You can field fix or replace a lot of critical issues that might harm a film based xray rig, and can spread your critical consumables out more in transit. You smash the computer running a digital your xray rig and you're waiting on a replacement.


But I'm curious if something like a need for a signed/logged physical copy for the xrays might be propping up its continued industrial use, or if that's also just "upgrades would cost us more than sticking with what we got" sort of thing.

 

[Truzi]

A few years ago I went to a podiatrist for a gout attack. He still used film for x-rays. He said he was too close to retirement to get a digital setup - he'd never be able to pay it off, and film worked just fine for his purposes.

 

[ant!]

On the other side, I'm happy the clinic which scanned my son's leg a half year ago was digital. He had pain getting more every day over a few weeks, from very weak in the evening to not using the leg anymore. The radiologist saw no broken bone, but had a doubt. He sent the images to the local kids hospital (the largest in Canada) to have someone look over it. The next day we got a call he should come to the emergency room. Over many tests and within a week it was confirmed there were some (benign) tumors in his leg bones. A crazy half year with many treatments followed, but now things are nearly back to normal (not totally done, but chemo and stereoids only every few weeks now, no more cast from toe to above the belly, back to school,...).
I guess without a digital scan, this initial forwarding to an expert would have taken longer.

Sorry, bit of topic... But while I love film photography, I do love the modern day medical possibilities even more.

 

[eli griggs]

On the other side, I'm happy the clinic which scanned my son's leg a half year ago was digital. He had pain getting more every day over a few weeks, from very weak in the evening to not using the leg anymore. The radiologist saw no broken bone, but had a doubt. He sent the images to the local kids hospital (the largest in Canada) to have someone look over it. The next day we got a call he should come to the emergency room. Over many tests and within a week it was confirmed there were some (benign) tumors in his leg bones. A crazy half year with many treatments followed, but now things are nearly back to normal (not totally done, but chemo and stereoids only every few weeks now, no more cast from toe to above the belly, back to school,...).
I guess without a digital scan, this initial forwarding to an expert would have taken longer.

Sorry, bit of topic... But while I love film photography, I do love the modern day medical possibilities even more.

Ant!, my Best Wishes, Hope and Prayers for your son's full recovery and your family's Well Being.

Similar in nature, I've recently, (this last year) experienced the same basic scenario, in that the fracture/break in my Right hip did not show up in X-ray detail, how extensive it was, while digital images from a CAT scan gave my emj room doctor a clear view of what was going on and i got the treatment i needed in a couple weeks of hospital and rehab.

 

[koraks]

It might be digital in North America and Europe, but in other regions film x-ray is still used more commonly.

Exactly. Don't forget the other 6 billion.

 

[Agulliver]

I believe it was Henning who had figures for Kodak C41 film that showed double digit increases in recent times. B&W was increasing slower, more like 3-5%. How that all translates to silver purchases is anyone's guess. We do know how much value of silver Harman/Ilford purchased last year because it's in their published accounts.

 

[pentaxuser]

percentage-wise silver is gaining returns similar to gold lately, 20% the last month alone and 20% in the last year!

Can we be sure that this gain is solely production related in terms of those good that require silver or might it be related to the "rush to precious metals" phenomenon that we see every time that the world is perceived as entering a more uncertain and dangerous period which would seem to be the case in the last 2 years?

pentaxuser

 

[Alan Johnson]

Can we be sure that this gain is solely production related in terms of those good that require silver or might it be related to the "rush to precious metals" phenomenon that we see every time that the world is perceived as entering a more uncertain and dangerous period which would seem to be the case in the last 2 years?

pentaxuser

Quite a few youtubers make a living out of trying to answer that question.
Relevant to film photography is market forces affecting the price of film and paper.
IIRC the cost of silver is only a small part of the cost of film.

 

[koraks]

IIRC the cost of silver is only a small part of the cost of film.

Small enough not to be a real problem.
Big enough to give a credible reason to manufacturers to 'index' prices once in a while.

 

[Agulliver]

Small enough not to be a real problem.
Big enough to give a credible reason to manufacturers to 'index' prices once in a while.

We do know that Harman bought £1m worth of the stuff in 2023, for example. Which is probably their biggest single outlay, though spread across every roll of film that leaves the factory.

 

[koraks]

We do know that Harman bought £1m worth of the stuff in 2023, for example. Which is probably their biggest single outlay

Their total cost of sales in 2022 was around 16.5MGBP. This makes silver around 6% of the product cost. If you add costs of distribution and administration, silver is around 4% of total cost. A 25% increase in the silver price would thus result in about a 1% increase in product cost. Like I said, big enough to be a credible reason to increase prices once in a while, small enough not to be a major concern.