Silver deficit continues

[cmacd123]

even a Canadian nickel, is no longer nickel.

Canadian Circulation Coin Physical Specifications

 

[Alan Johnson]

The silver shortage is becoming better known, but since the amount in films is small this market may be somewhat price insensitive.

 

[halfaman]

Silver, gold, cooper, zinc, aluminum... they all are traded playing with its future price by many brokers, hedge funds and metal producers. Many times its price fluctuations have nothing to do with their availability or usage but with pure finantial speculation.

Copper is so expensive and for so many years that some electrical aplications has moved to aluminum even it is worse conductor.

 

[mshchem]

There's no shortage of silver. Currency fluctuates, commodity futures are traded like poker chips.
Too much speculation in commodity futures.

 

[Alan Johnson]

Google AI:
As of late November and early December 2025, Comex deliverable silver supply is considered tight, with recent events highlighting a severe physical market shortage. A trading halt at the CME on November 28, 2025, due to an infrastructure failure reportedly led to a spike in physical silver prices as trading shifted away from paper derivatives. Some reports also noted a transfer of over 12.5 million ounces out of the Comex Registered inventory category on November 26, 2025. For 2025, the global silver market is expected to experience its fifth consecutive annual deficit, further straining above-ground inventories.

 

[TJones]

There's no shortage of silver. Currency fluctuates, commodity futures are traded like poker chips.
Too much speculation in commodity futures.

While there may not be a shortage, demand has exceeded production for several years, and there’s no indication that the deficit (currently at 30% of demand) will be eliminated. Industrial use is increasing rapidly.

 

[Alan Edward Klein]

Film xrays still have their uses, and I know some dental clinics in Canada were still using film simply because they already had a setup for it paid for, and their monthly costs in film and supplies was less than upgrading to the most basic digital option and all the systems that go with it.

Plus you still get a few people who just like their film more than digital.


Other points I remember from a random conversation with someone who was working with some medical relief program:
- Film can be read with almost any source for light in a pinch, and takes less power to run off batteries than a computer xray system. Useful if you're working somewhere prone to rolling blackouts or other unreliable power issues.
- A cabinet of film records aren't a target if a clinic gets robbed. Fancy looking computer gear is.
- Film doesn't care about cyber security.
- Training for handling film is fairly universal between any different system. Digital xray software can radically change after an update to the same system, let alone different vendors.
- You can field fix or replace a lot of critical issues that might harm a film based xray rig, and can spread your critical consumables out more in transit. You smash the computer running a digital your xray rig and you're waiting on a replacement.


But I'm curious if something like a need for a signed/logged physical copy for the xrays might be propping up its continued industrial use, or if that's also just "upgrades would cost us more than sticking with what we got" sort of thing.

How up to date is a dentist with the newest dental procedures if he s still using film for X-rays? What if you ned to send the pictures to a specialist? Would a bride hire a photographer using 40 year old film cameras exclusively and not know how to shoot video?

 

[mshchem]

Google AI:
As of late November and early December 2025, Comex deliverable silver supply is considered tight, with recent events highlighting a severe physical market shortage. A trading halt at the CME on November 28, 2025, due to an infrastructure failure reportedly led to a spike in physical silver prices as trading shifted away from paper derivatives. Some reports also noted a transfer of over 12.5 million ounces out of the Comex Registered inventory category on November 26, 2025. For 2025, the global silver market is expected to experience its fifth consecutive annual deficit, further straining above-ground inventories.

My actual experience,
I stopped in at my friend's coin shop Tuesday, I've haven't seen that much silver in a while. Thousands of ounces of bullion, sterling, coin silver etc. All being shipped.

Problem is that commodity markets no longer demand delivery of the physical products. The result is a casino where traders expect a payday. Classic margin futures trading. Many more ounces being traded than exist in the global inventory.

ETFs actually are required to have physical silver (or gold etc) in a vault.

Right now every refiner who is a referee to benchmark the "Good Delivery" bars for silver are backed up

It's not a shortage of silver, it's a supply issue. Kinda like waiting on the cargo ships to be unloaded during Covid pandemic.

 

[mshchem]

Simple solution is to require a futures contract seller to actually possess the commodity (or be a regular producer) i.e. a corn farmer selling near term contracts based on expected returns.

Interesting

 

[Alan Johnson]

Google AI again, this is old data from April 16 2025, things may have changed somewhat with the recent silver price increases and increased silverware trade-ins causing the logjam you describe. Trading in of old silverware may fall away with time as well.

According to data from the Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2025:

• Mined Supply: Global mined silver production is projected to be around 835 to 844 million ounces (Moz).
• Recycled Supply: Global recycled silver volume is projected to increase to approximately 195 to 200 Moz, the highest level since 2012.

Key Observations

• Dominant Source: Mine production remains the primary source of silver supply.
• Recycling Growth: Recycling is increasing, driven by higher silver prices, but it is still a considerably smaller portion of the total supply.
• Market Deficit: Despite the growth in recycling, the overall silver market is expected to remain in a significant supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.

• Recycled silver is generally broken down into broad categories:
  • Industrial Scrap The most significant source, coming from the processing of spent industrial catalysts and other manufacturing waste.
  • Jewellery Scrap This includes trade-ins from both the general public and commercial sources, and its volume tends to increase when silver prices are high.
  • Silverware Recycling A smaller but notable source, which saw an increase in 2024 due to higher prices and cost-of-living issues encouraging sales in Western markets.
  • Electronics Recycling Another major component, especially prevalent in East Asia, which often includes silver from consumer electronics.

 

[mshchem]

Google AI again, this is old data from April 16 2025, things may have changed somewhat with the recent silver price increases and increased silverware trade-ins causing the logjam you describe. Trading in of old silverware may fall away with time as well.

According to data from the Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2025:

• Mined Supply: Global mined silver production is projected to be around 835 to 844 million ounces (Moz).
• Recycled Supply: Global recycled silver volume is projected to increase to approximately 195 to 200 Moz, the highest level since 2012.

Key Observations

• Dominant Source: Mine production remains the primary source of silver supply.
• Recycling Growth: Recycling is increasing, driven by higher silver prices, but it is still a considerably smaller portion of the total supply.
• Market Deficit: Despite the growth in recycling, the overall silver market is expected to remain in a significant supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.

• Recycled silver is generally broken down into broad categories:
  • Industrial Scrap The most significant source, coming from the processing of spent industrial catalysts and other manufacturing waste.
  • Jewellery Scrap This includes trade-ins from both the general public and commercial sources, and its volume tends to increase when silver prices are high.
  • Silverware Recycling A smaller but notable source, which saw an increase in 2024 due to higher prices and cost-of-living issues encouraging sales in Western markets.
  • Electronics Recycling Another major component, especially prevalent in East Asia, which often includes silver from consumer electronics.

This wasn't just silverware this was bullion, lots of it every sort of 1 ounce devices, poured bars, rounds, bars, 10 ounce bars, sterling collectibles etc etc. For the ETF like SLV and GLD they are required to process physical, Good Delivery, certified, nominally 1000 ounce bars of 99.9 fine silver. This is part of what has got things a bit stirred. up. Takes weeks to melt, assay, refine, pour, weigh, stamp, serialize, issue paper work and distribute the big old bars.

The phrase "market deficit" to me just means that the price being offered is too low. There's so much silver in individual hands it's enormous. Way more than government strategic stockpiles (except maybe China).

The US Mint last I heard required N. American gold for the US gold coin program, that was Canada last I checked (unless we have been cutoff by Mark Carney )

The only point I'm trying to get across is that there's plenty of silver to make film, and Kodak, I believe is still making and selling Silver Nitrate so I'm sure they have plenty.