Ektachrome is back......

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trendland

trendland

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Not that I am a pessimist or anything, but I can't help but wonder after the initial pipeline is filled with the new Ektachrome, how long Kodak will be able to justify making it.
I doubt if the demand for it today will be even close to the demand for it when they decided to pull the plug.
Fortunately, they have less overhead to contend with, but..........
Yes demand is of course highest at the beginning roll out. I guess 50% are New People 50% are familar with old Ektachrome. In the longer term not all of the New People will stay - but some others beginn to fill up their freezer and that Ektachrome is just at this point relative cheap (it will not hold very long with 10bucks) is also quite clear.
with regards
 

BrianShaw

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Yes demand is of course highest at the beginning roll out. I guess 50% are New People 50% are familar with old Ektachrome. In the longer term not all of the New People will stay - but some others beginn to fill up their freezer and that Ektachrome is just at this point relative cheap (it will not hold very long with 10bucks) is also quite clear.
with regards
As long as we are engaging in idle speculation... I think...

90% had prior experience with both transparency film and Ektachrome in particular

Of that 90%: 20% are actually shooting it and the rest are squirreling it away... either to have in the future as a novelty or to later sell at exhorbinant prices on EBay.
 

jim10219

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As long as we are engaging in idle speculation... I think...

90% had prior experience with both transparency film and Ektachrome in particular

Of that 90%: 20% are actually shooting it and the rest are squirreling it away... either to have in the future as a novelty or to later sell at exhorbinant prices on EBay.
I strongly doubt your numbers. Maybe 90% of people on this forum. But in general, most older photographers who would have had experience with Ektachrome have moved on to digital and haven’t looked back. The majority of people in the real world who are interested in 35mm film these days are people who grew up with digital cameras being the primary option. They’re the ones who appreciate small format film. Whenever I see a film camera out in public, it’s usually in the hands of someone under 35. I looked at joining the two large local camera clubs in my area a while back, but they were both made up of entirely retirement aged people, and none of them shot film anymore. And none of them could comprehend why I’d shoot film in this day and age. I got lectured so many times on why film was worse than digital, I quit going.

And I highly doubt that many people will be squirreling away Ektachrome. At least smart people. It won’t fetch huge numbers on eBay anytime soon. It’s a new formula. It hasn’t had time yet to gain a cult following. And even if it does, it won’t be discontinued anytime soon unless Kodak exits the film market entirely. It’s a hit for them right now, so there’s no reason to kill it. And if people decide it’s not as good as other options and it’s sales drop low enough to warrant its exit from the market, no one will be interested in buying it. If you want to stock up on film to resell at crazy prices later down the road, I think Provia would be a better bet. Kodak is looking for reasons to expand their line of film right now. Fuji is looking for reasons to contract. And since Ektachrome’s closest rival is Provia, that’s the one in most danger of disappearing. Hence that’s the one most likely to command high prices on eBay in the future.

This site is an extremely poor representation of real world demographics. Hence why it there aren’t any other sites like it in the world.
 

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I can respect your opinion, Jim#####.

The problem is... trendland, me, and you are all guessing with little-to-none in terms of real data/information. We all have our past experience, impressions of the current/future situation, and our individual biases/opinions. You could be right... who knows.

I agree with you, though, that most old film/Ektachrome users have moved on with little interest in returning to that as a primary media. But over heard a bunch of codgers express interest in “trying a roll” out of curiosity or nostalgia.

Only time will tell, it seems...

One of the observations that colors my opinion is that Kodak released two new emulsions yet there isn’t a swell of “look at how great this new film is... look at my pictures with it” postings. There have been a few on social media by folks blessed to be pre-release testers, a guy on large format film site, and maybe one here. Not as many as I’d expect for a film enjoying an overwhelming success, as some describe the sales. Nobody even has a good guess as to the number of rolls released, but we all know it was insufficient to satisfy the demand... which we also can’t quantity or even estimate.

Repeated hand waving and unabashed enthusiasm can take the conversation so far...
 
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BrianShaw

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17B035B0-DB12-4452-9F36-B2B74AD41C07.jpeg
5091BEA9-4F89-4551-B052-D3D75667B634.jpeg
The aperture card (there were many) cropped for the desired final print size, offered s place to record exposure and other printing information, and fit into certain enlarging systems. Plus they were compact storage. Old-skool wedding photographer’s dream. Apparently so archaic that I can’t even find a picture of one on the Internet. I think they are still made for microfilm but at one time they existed in many different crops for 35mm and several 120 film formats. If I can find a pic I’ll attach a link.

This is crazy. Can’t find an example to show you. SOMETHING IS MISSING FROM THE INTERNET... The end may be near!
Found an example. This is basic 35mm format. There were many other crop options for 120 film.

I was reminded by a good friend (I hope) that pictures could be attached to posts. My feeble mind...

But now... finally... the Internet is complete. Ha ha ha.
 
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trendland

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View attachment 210195 View attachment 210196
Found an example. This is basic 35mm format. There were many other crop options for 120 film.

I was reminded by a good friend (I hope) that pictures could be attached to posts. My feeble mind...

But now... finally... the Internet is complete. Ha ha ha.

Now I know what an aperture card is.....
It remembered my on a lightmeter I found in a catalogue. But I realy wonder because this catalogue was from 1900 ( so around - max. 1907 ) ,"They had lightmeters at this ttime?"
On the catalogue site it came clear : A table of paper with all kind of parameters. Hope I have this catalogue still - can't find it.

with regards

PS : A light APP out of the year. 190? !
 

AgX

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Lightmeters came up around 1895.
These early meters hade a light sensitive paper (pop paper) darken under exposure to ambient light and then checked against a scale. There were many models.
The next group was optical and based on the visibilty of a scale under varying ND filtration, or similar effect. These were marketed until the 50s or so.
 
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trendland

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I can respect your opinion, Jim#####.

Nobody even has a good guess as to the number of rolls released, but we all know it was insufficient to satisfy the demand... which we also can’t quantity or even estimate.

Repeated hand waving and unabashed enthusiasm can take the conversation so far...

Sure we can, but Brian pls. do me the favour and don't began to laught :

93 3333,33333 Ektachromes !

If I just made no mistake from tipping this is the numbers you need.

with regards

PS : But this numbers on demand/production scale/ pricing calculation is telling not so much to make a prognostic for the future. Because there (in the future) you have some variants wich can be calculated but the culmination of different issues makes a big spread of prognostic incorectness.
(that means the calculation you've made is more and more variable.)
 
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trendland

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I strongly doubt your numbers. Maybe 90% of people on this forum. But in general, most older photographers who would have had experience with Ektachrome have moved on to digital and haven’t looked back. The majority of people in the real world who are interested in 35mm film these days are people who grew up with digital cameras being the primary option. They’re the ones who appreciate small format film. Whenever I see a film camera out in public, it’s usually in the hands of someone under 35. I looked at joining the two large local camera clubs in my area a while back, but they were both made up of entirely retirement aged people, and none of them shot film anymore. And none of them could comprehend why I’d shoot film in this day and age. I got lectured so many times on why film was worse than digital, I quit going.

And I highly doubt that many people will be squirreling away Ektachrome. At least smart people. It won’t fetch huge numbers on eBay anytime soon. It’s a new formula. It hasn’t had time yet to gain a cult following. And even if it does, it won’t be discontinued anytime soon unless Kodak exits the film market entirely. It’s a hit for them right now, so there’s no reason to kill it. And if people decide it’s not as good as other options and it’s sales drop low enough to warrant its exit from the market, no one will be interested in buying it. If you want to stock up on film to resell at crazy prices later down the road, I think Provia would be a better bet. Kodak is looking for reasons to expand their line of film right now. Fuji is looking for reasons to contract. And since Ektachrome’s closest rival is Provia, that’s the one in most danger of disappearing. Hence that’s the one most likely to command high prices on eBay in the future.

This site is an extremely poor representation of real world demographics. Hence why it there aren’t any other sites like it in the world.

Great execution of arguments. Near by reality I would say. (Today's reality because it may soon change)

with regards
 
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trendland

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Sorry, but I’m laughing.

Yes I know . I will came back tomorow and then we will have a short look on Kodak's jan.
statement. (Press relase)

with regards

PS : Coming straight from job.
 
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trendland

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Ok - at first : my math calculator is not lying. Sure it is depending on the information you can give a calculator because if it is wrong the calculator will show you wrong results.

It looks like as it is also here : 93 3333,33333 a funny numbers indeed but we will come back on it!

You might know the today's demand (the remaining demand on film) some say 1% of the sales from the good old days.
These numbers are not published - not anywere published - you will not find it. But what you might know is the year of best sellings of film ever : The Year 2000.
Sure the production of films was at the same scale (from my point we should say : but these scale have had been produced in 1999 ?) it doesn't matter.
A good "guess" as you asked on the highest scales is in "billions" of 135-36 equivalents.
To my it is around 4Billions ! You can estimated from numbers of sales in Europe on the top at 2000 to the world wide sales ! Sure it is not presise because who may calculate the sellings in different markets like Afrika , India , south east, or middle America.
But you can beat me for that 4billions it doesn't matter if it is a billion more or 1,5 billion less.

Because it is showing the dimentions. We are not talking about 10 Million, we are not talking about 100 billion, and the highest demand on film ever wasn't imense : "Some 100.000 films a year" if you will ask in a Kindergarten-play :laugh:.

So if you would agree in a number between 1 - 5 Billions the rest is easy:pouty:.

Some may at this point state : "nonsence at all Trendland don't care about 1 billion more or 1,5 Billions less " yes that is indeed right and it doesn't matter at all so much:kissing:

BECAUSE WE CAN NOT SAY IF THE TODAY'S REMAINING DEMAND IS EXACT AT 1%!!!!!

I doubt a bit but some bw manufacturers spoke about a stable bottom at 1,5% and beginning higher sales - this is nearly 2 years ago and is it still true today ? Are today's sellings from bw film come up more and more? I "Speculate" it is perhaps more a constantly up and down on this extreme low bottom of sales.
At last higher sales in bw have nothing to say about the demand on slide film:pouty:

That would be the end of any further calculation:sick:....:sick: Game over ?

We have this 4billion films :D....the today's total scale of worldwide demand/sales is nearly 1% =
40.000.000 = 40 Million films. The sales on E6 saw a constantly part between 7-8,5 % of all films in Europe. If we regard the today's situation it has not become less in relation because the today's group of photographers is different to the group of holiday shooting amatheuric photograpers who demand 10 time more E6 Films in comparison to their professionell colleagues within the good old days.

But we shouldd be also think about : it hasn't become more (more demand in relation for example 15%of all films) that is caused from the special situation of E6 in a Europe market (American market should be in the near) and the rest of the world were E6 doesn't exist any longer (Afrika, middle East a.s.o.)

At this point a calculator is fine : Yesterday I used 7,5% and that is 2,8 Million (worldwide demand of E6 Films in 135-36 equivalents per year).

Who can be sure about 7,5 % if it is just 6,9% ? It doesn't matter friends:wink:!

If we remember the jan. statement of Kodak we should remember a special part of the following Interviews (that with the Kodachrome statement) there Kodak stated they are planning to sell
10 Million Ektachrome Films per year !

:D:laugh::D:laugh::D:happy::whistling: yes my friends that was the point I was laughing about numbers - Brian:wink:.

And it is a good example because here is a source (it is still published on the net) it is an official statement (if I remember correct it came from Kodaks production manager for Ektachrome)
But I would give not 5pennys on that. Because it is wrong. If some of you ever would believe on official statements you should not wonder if it will come not to reality.
10 Million Ektachrome per year would mean that from all selling fims each "fourth" is an Ektachrome.
(Remember that 40 Million scale of all the today's Films (per year!) may be this number isn't much correct and in reality it is just 38million? Don't care about!
Bad Times coming to Ilford by the way:D they will louse bw selling because Ektachrome is to be alive!

So official statements may cause sometimes more nonsence in comparison to "own thoughts" ?
I would say yes , definitivly but not allways:wink:!

So what is coming on Fuji next? What are Kodaks plans in regard of getting back parts of the E6 markets.
Remember : The 2 800 000 E6 at this time (realy maximum I would not count on that there are more in numbers today) wich are serving the world wide market per year (in 135-36 equivalents) are coming
from Fuji to 100%.
What are you thinking about - what could be the target of Kodak in the short term (not in the longer term because Fuji have to decide to proceed or not).

The target is to get back 30% of the marked and that is realistic with New Ektachrome every calculation against would had not EKTACHROME come back:cool:!
So 1/3 of 2,8 million is 2,8 : 3 = 93 3333,33333 but I see my calculator is also a bit dyslexic if it is showing the total numbers of Ektachromes a year in that way because better to read is :

933.333,333period = 1 Million Ektachromes calculated sales (per year) read the Jan. Kodak anouncement again - this guy had a bad day or what evever as he talked about 10 Million.

So if you would be Kodak Brian and you would be told : "pleas. bring out a scale of 1 Million Ektachromes ? (we always talking about 135-36 equivalents and that is inclusive Super8rolls)

What would you count on a scale for the first month? The number of calculated 2 mounth for the first period of sellings should be better hmm?

It wasn't enough Brian :kissing:

with regards
 

BrianShaw

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That’s a lot of words... your fingers must be tired.

I think I might be starting to see your point. Not sure I fully understand, but I’ll keep thinking.

10 million per year does seem ludicrous. 1 million... maybe more realistic. And how do you think they are doing at meeting that goal for 2018... which is rapidly coming to a close.

But how much profit do you suppose is in 1 million sales? I’d guess a spit in the bucket in terms of corporate survival.

Now if they could simplify the delivery chain there might be a great opportunity for making more money... for whoever survives the transition.
 
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trendland

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That’s a lot of words... your fingers must be tired.

I think I might be starting to see your point. Not sure I fully understand, but I’ll keep thinking.

10 million per year does seem ludicrous. 1 million... maybe more realistic. And how do you think they are doing at meeting that goal for 2018... which is rapidly coming to a close.

But how much profit do you suppose is in 1 million sales? I’d guess a spit in the bucket in terms of corporate survival.

Now if they could simplify the delivery chain there might be a great opportunity for making more money... for whoever survives the transition.
Aha - you may see just now the oportunity of that business:D......
Let me state in addition : a production scale of "around" 80.000 films (35mm)/month is
JUST NOTHING on a big scaled coating machine (as we ALL ARE knowing for sure).
That was the problem in the past (we also know). On a smaller sized coater like Kodak is using now
that problem seams to be solved.
That means : You have the need of a couple of masterrolls each month (nearly 2 - 3)
[ around 30.000 Films each masterroll if I am "nearly" correct.]
You may prove this if via "emulsion number" if you will compare fresh Ektachrome you perhaps will order in Jan.19 with today's numbers of the very first batch.
(each masterroll is marked with its exclusive number) - but you are knowing this .....

But to be able to compare you should order some Ektachrome now - shouldn't you:pinch:..?

So hurry up Brian:cool:!

with regards

PS : The earnings (profits) in the past (on a big coating line) have had been imense. I guess a single 35mm Kodak Gold (bestseller of Kodaks all time films) has had just a couple of cent ",intern production costs" that means : per film from raw materials, energy for production a.s.o.
Without costs of marketing , reinvestigation for machines a.s.o. in short : That sum wich varies in relation to the scale.:unsure:....no wonder if a big coater eject some 100 milion films within each duration of
10month 24/7 constantly production. If I remember correct " Gold " was named in that way because it was Kodak Gold indeed. And this was one of some films wich Kodak also produced at different factory
locations outside the US because the demand was actualy to much for a single of that biggest coaters. In concern of 24/7 production it was THAT deal of the last century.
Don't come up on the idea that Kodak made much profits with professional films:wink:!
 
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trendland

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Lightmeters came up around 1895.
These early meters hade a light sensitive paper (pop paper) darken under exposure to ambient light and then checked against a scale. There were many models.
The next group was optical and based on the visibilty of a scale under varying ND filtration, or similar effect. These were marketed until the 50s or so.
The one I found was a little different AgX :
It was like a "slide rule" with markings for : location (longitude/altitude) date (month/day) time (hours in 15min. steps) and all kind of weather condition in around 30 parameters like (little clouds/more cloudy/fully coudy/little rain/freezing drizzle a .s . o.)

with regards
 

Lachlan Young

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So much inanity in this thread.

Consider that Kodak felt it worthwhile to make a dozen+ E-6 films until 2009-2012, all in larger than minimum quantities, in the most part on 2 triacetate bases & 1 Estar base. That's a huge amount of film, when a minimum batch is about 35000 135 or 120 rolls. The current batch is being split between 135, S8, 16mm - no one knows the exact percentages outside Kodak I'd imagine, but it's probably a reasonable guess that there's perhaps 20k+ rolls available for 135. Not a lot of retailers need to sell 500-1000 rolls for that batch to be spoken for. But of course it won't stop those whose overarching narrative of persecution needs the sky to be falling.
 

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Or everything to be sunshine and roses.
No, but there's clearly a market for whoever can make E-6 films in the right quantities (not multiple products 5 miles at a time) & some people have a problem with that because the customer profile doesn't match their prejudices.
 

AgX

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The one I found was a little different AgX :
It was like a "slide rule" with markings for : location (longitude/altitude) date (month/day) time (hours in 15min. steps) and all kind of weather condition in around 30 parameters like (little clouds/more cloudy/fully coudy/little rain/freezing drizzle a .s . o.)

Yes, but that is no lightmeter, but a exposure table
 

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No, but there's clearly a market for whoever can make E-6 films in the right quantities (not multiple products 5 miles at a time) & some people have a problem with that because the customer profile doesn't match their prejudices.
I don't see much of that but then I am not overly sensitive. I am happy E-6 is available for those that want to shoot it. Having two manufactures in the E-6 business is better than than one.
 
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