Where do you see Analogue photography in (say) 20 years time ?

[eddie]

I don't see it being much different than it is now. It will be practiced by those with a passion for it, and who are willing to put in the extra effort to find the materials. Even now, it's not for the lazy, or those needing instant gratification. Jason's plates give me hope, as does the work done by The Light Farm.

 

[Helge]

Film has seen it's hay-day and a half hearted last gasp of interest. Once it's status as the flavour of the month is over with the "hip/cool" people it will return to a minimal steady state. Only the leanest film/paper/chemical suppliers will be able to survive.

It’s been an awful long month then.

Even though I previously said they couldn’t really be compared, in this case the comparison is apt: The LP “fad” has been going for well over ten years now and is still building momentum.

Hipsters wo do it for the wrong reasons will stop in short order. This, is not just that.

Film actually has some image quality to offer that is impossible to get with digital.

 

[Helge]

hope being the only father of this thought.We've heard this for more than a decade and still...

And what makes you think it's not true?

 

[Black Dog]

When I opened this thread my goal was to have brain storming about what the future may bring us. This was definitely not coming out of fear because I didn't even shoot a full roll yet so I am the last person to worry about this among you lot. I see a lot of defensive comments most of them revolves around "carpe diem" which certainly was not address the question as to whether your projections about the future of analogue photography look like. If this is how you live your life, good for you; and if you felt the need of sharing this, that's welcome too but it just is not what we talk about here.
I wonder if the same thread was opened in as digital photography what would be the general approach. I don't think it would be negative quite as much.
This is more like a weather forecast or stock exchange projections based on scientific evidence, which btw rarely comes close to being true .
So far vast majority of people agree that it will be a niche product and b&w will survive longer. One fellow member thinks Ilford will be the only brand that survives and I would like to know why for instance.
Thanks to those who shared their opinions so far.

20 years ago I was wondering if analogue would exist at all...Olympus were running their 'death of film' ads and a lot of pundits were saying the same thing. Now I feel a bit more optimistic, especially when I see HP5 +, in 120 format no less, on sale in Boots the chemist in Kendal. Kendal, btw is a small town in rural Cumbria but we do have a strong artistic community in these parts. The last time I went to buy film there, the lady behind the counter said to me that there was increasing interest in film photography these days. I let her know how pleased I was to find 120 b&w film on the shelves!

 

[jtk]

I don't think film will vanish more than it already has.

I do think many art-oriented photographers will continue to explore video as a means of semi-still display, supplanting any sort of photo print. That has tremendous barely tapped upside potential due to the massive, excellent, flat screen TVs that are so common in so many homes and upscale galleries. Those galleries commonly sell the relevant digital media as well as superb art photo books...if one can't afford the $3000 dedicated hard drive versions, one might be able to afford the $500 books. If you know folks who have gotten married recently you know that the best photographers prioritize video.

 

[David Brown]

We've heard this for more than a decade and still...

If one were to go back a decade on this very forum, one would find threads about the state of film in 5 or 10 years, (i.e., 2013 and today) and many of the same arguments and predictions in this thread. Bottom line: we - don't - know!

 

[RalphLambrecht]

I agree and the older I get,the better the digital workflow suits me.

 

[removed account4]

Why? If you want your film back, ask for it. If you don't, don't. What's the big deal? The big boys are out of the game already. CVS, Walgreens and Target no longer develop film. Walmart does but doesn't return the negative. C41 isn't doomed without them.

hi faberryman

fujilabs is the main national photofinisher for send out at walgreens and rite aid and cvs ( maybe ) and costco and walmart.
spoke with someone at rite aid a few weeks ago, while they ARE owned by WALGREENS they don't have the online kiosks / computer
that walgreens does, so they still will give you film back ( c41 ) the others won't because they process and email the files directly to the stores
to save on the postage / return delivery ... they pick up every 2 weeks ... if it is 120, cine film ( 8mm, 16mm ) b/w, chromes ( 35mm / 120 ) it is sent to dwaynes after fuji gets is
and the negatives &c are returned to the owner ... my minilab down the street gives film back without anyone asking, and she does custom printing
for the price of a machine print .. im sure blue moon, northeast and the rest of the small operators will return the film too

 

[Berkeley Mike]

And what makes you think it's not true?

Can you show data that proves that film is one the rise? "Film is making a comeback," seems less a reality-based claim than a statement of hope made by those invested in that sentiment.

A comment by an Ilford rep suggest that the demand for film was up 8-10%. Then he followed with the proviso that he wasn't at all sure that this was generalized throughout the market. Kodak mentions that demand for their film had risen 8%, 4% per year over 2 years. The obvious question is, up from what?

The only data I've seen is from an Ilford survey that described the age of film users. It said nothing about volumes. And, while they touted (along with BH and other vendors trying to create buzz) 35% of analogue users were under 30, that segment represents ages 18-30; how many of those will continue in the craft? Simple aging, busier lives and changing interests will cut into that pretty quickly.

 

[Berkeley Mike]

Can you show data that proves that film is one the rise? "Film is making a comeback," seems less a reality-based claim than a statement of hope made by those invested in that sentiment.
A comment by an Ilford rep suggest that the demand for film was up 8-10%. Then he followed with the proviso that he wasn't at all sure that this was generalized throughout the market. Kodak mentions that demand for their film had risen 8% over 2 years. The obvious question is, up from what?

The only data I've seen is from an Ilford survey that described the age of film users. It said nothing about volumes. And, while they touted (along with BH and other vendors trying to create buzz)
35% of users were under 30, that segment represents ages 18-30; how many of those will continue in the craft? Simple aging, busier lives and changing interests cut into that pretty quickly.

At our college we used to have 4 sections of Basic Photo (actually film-base photo). 33% of faculty could only teach film. We started an Intro to Digital class in 2011, increasing that to 2 sections in 2015. 2016 we were down to 3 film sections due to low enrollment. In 2016 we extended Digital to 1, then 2, then 3 local high schools. (2 of them had old darkrooms that had become storage, not having been used since 2002.)

Last Spring (2018) the 3 sections of Film enrolled 93 students. By Census Day (headcount for state funding) 2 weeks later it was down to 57. At the end of the semester it was down to 31. This summer (2018) the Film class was cancelled due to insufficient enrollment (only 8.) This fall (2018) 1 of 3 sections was cancelled due to insufficient enrollment (only 8.) Even the film-bound are finally admitting that film classes do not fill the student need/desire. Though one suggested, a former BW lab owner who doesn't even use film in his Pro classes, that "film is making a comeback. This attitude is seen as self-serving for people who want to keep their jobs.

We have taken Film out of the requirements for our Photo Degree, replacing it with digital. We have created a new Film Certificate that includes additional classes in Intermediate Printing and Alternative Processes, taking advantage of whatever cache our school and darkroom facility might have in the area to devotees. I spoke to Brooks Institute the summer just before they closed their doors. I asked about their film program. They said that they only had 1 darkroom open but were thinking of opening more to serve "gallery" work.

Making a comeback? I think, rather, that it found its bottom after a precipitous fall and is stabilizing, amongst devotes, amidst the entrance and exit of film manufacturers. The new academic attitude is one of trying to secure the niche users as a market.

 

[Berkeley Mike]

If one were to go back a decade on this very forum, one would find threads about the state of film in 5 or 10 years, (i.e., 2013 and today) and many of the same arguments and predictions in this thread. Bottom line: we - don't - know!

Well, we do know. We are at 2%or less of the high tide level of 1 billion rolls or 2,000,000 rolls. Ilford, Kodak and Adox want a piece fo that. Fuji doesn't seem to and Ferrenia is working towards manufacture. We have Ukranian and Czech producers, Tasma and Foma; pretty small production. Agfa and Svema make aerial film. All the others draw from that source, effect an art approach, and rebadge.

 

[jtk]

fwiw I just got another 3 rolls of 10/2019 Acros. Film's good for something, that's for sure (it's portraits IMO). On the other hand, lighting is more important than medium, and artistry is infinitely more important than technique.

 

[Peter Schrager]

I have lots of community datkrooms open all over the states in the last 2 years...film will be around a lot longer than most of you

 

[scantech]

"We will all become camera collectors" .
The manufacturing of photographic film and scarcity of processing chemicals and paper will all but kill the medium. The camera equipment and its evolution will reflect on the fine mechanical engineering of the day.

 

[Sirius Glass]

I have lots of community datkrooms open all over the states in the last 2 years...film will be around a lot longer than most of you

I agree but after another twenty years this website will still be debating this.

 

[Berkeley Mike]

I have lots of community datkrooms open all over the states in the last 2 years...film will be around a lot longer than most of you

And there are labs that have managed to remain open who are absorbing the smaller client bases from defunct labs. You must be doing something right.

 

[foc]

The first six months of this year has been the best for film processing in the last 5 years, in our mini lab.

Our film processing has increased 50%.

Film is making a comeback !!!!!

Ok..... the real truth. Yes we increased our processing 50% but it was from 50 rolls per week to 75. We are a small minilab in a small town, in a small country, so it really only a local increase (not global). I know as labs close there should be a bigger pool for the remaining few but it's not always the case. People just throw the film in a drawer " what the heck, I can't get it developed"

Without the correct industry figures to compare we can all guess and wish.

I have often thought is this increase that is talked about the last death throes of film?

With all the labs closing are we making it harder for the customer to get their film developed?

Not everyone want home processing (can be a bit like home brew).

At the moment I am happy with the increase (locally) and can't even think ahead to next week much less 20 years .

 

[scantech]

Yes Film sales are up year to year. However Peak Film is long past.
So the real question is : Who will be making film, chemicals and paper in 20years?
Everyone here knows that the price per roll is increasing, the demand is just about balanced with the reduced production (world wide). Industry studies show when the Hipsters/ Millenniums get over there Analog Photography FAD production will slow with the inevitable consequence...
I used to be so privileged as my "employer" would gift me film (Not any more its a hot commodity) I now buy film, anywhere I find it, Ebay is a sign of the market, crazy prices, but I am filling a fridge to extend the life of the film and my love for the process.
Same goes for the chemicals (I run a Noritsu T15 CN16 the last new line of one hour film processors from 2007 ! (Another topic : Aging Equipment) .
ACROS is gone this year, whats next , EKTAR? .
FILM WILL DIE. Thats business, Its a business I have been in for 50years. It sure is SAD but we can still debate it till our last frame!....

 

[RattyMouse]

Yes Film sales are up year to year. However Peak Film is long past.
So the real question is : Who will be making film, chemicals and paper in 20years?
Everyone here knows that the price per roll is increasing, the demand is just about balanced with the reduced production (world wide). Industry studies show when the Hipsters/ Millenniums get over there Analog Photography FAD production will slow with the inevitable consequence...
I used to be so privileged as my "employer" would gift me film (Not any more its a hot commodity) I now buy film, anywhere I find it, Ebay is a sign of the market, crazy prices, but I am filling a fridge to extend the life of the film and my love for the process.
Same goes for the chemicals (I run a Noritsu T15 CN16 the last new line of one hour film processors from 2007 ! (Another topic : Aging Equipment) .
ACROS is gone this year, whats next , EKTAR? .
FILM WILL DIE. Thats business, Its a business I have been in for 50years. It sure is SAD but we can still debate it till our last frame!....

Demand is NOT balanced because films continue to be discontinued.

Ektar will not be the next film axed, it will be Provia and Velvia. That's my prediction.

 

[Berkeley Mike]

Yes Film sales are up year to year.

Where do you get this information? I've looked pretty widely and there are precious few solid sources of info from within the industry. I've gotten info from Interviews and turned to shooters with broad exposure and some industry contacts.

 

[Berkeley Mike]

I don't say this gladly at all but labs have disappeared from SF. I know most of these folks. I am simply challenging the blythe claim that "film is coming back" based upon reports that lab business is increasing. Here is a list of Labs that I used to do business with in SF that are now out of business:

The New Lab
Robyn Color
Faulkner
Color Pro
South Park Photo
Co-Lab
Red Shoes
Light Waves
Advanced Imaging Services
L’Image
Custom Process
Photo Lab
Monaco (Big motion picture lab on 9th nert to my old studio, switched to Digital)
Monaco (Reza Palavi's color print lab in SF & Berkeley.)

Many of these were huge mainstays of the business with long histories and pedigree.

Gamma (my old savior Peter) has closed its old Russ St. location, then it's Clementina location, in SOMA and is now sharing a space in the Bayview district. It is only open from 12:30-6PM 3 days a week.
Rayko's location on 3rd in SOMA is closed, it reduced its services and classes. It is reported to have closed in August of 2017.

6 of these were BW labs. Oscar's seems to be doing well enough to maintain an expensive location in SOMA. Has a nice following. E-6? My friends at Photolab in Berkeley say that their E-6 is increasing...last (wo)man standing. Shooters are running out of places to go

 

[RattyMouse]

If one were to go back a decade on this very forum, one would find threads about the state of film in 5 or 10 years, (i.e., 2013 and today) and many of the same arguments and predictions in this thread. Bottom line: we - don't - know!

and most predictions were close to 100% spot on. More films would be discontinued and the remaining suppliers be in a perilous state. Two out of the three are, leaving one, the smallest surviving.

Past predictions were pretty accurate I'd say.

 

[removed account4]

and most predictions were close to 100% spot on. More films would be discontinued and the remaining suppliers be in a perilous state. Two out of the three are, leaving one, the smallest surviving.

Past predictions were pretty accurate I'd say.

what most predictions from 2008 are you talking about??

you werne't even on apug in 2008 but as soon as you got here
you were spouting all sorts of negative commentary about manufacturers...
( and STILL DO )

they predicted the death of film since about 2003 ..
they claimed kodak fuji and ilford would be completely out of business
and it would only be russian, chinese and east europe manufacturers supplying the world.
they claimed everything would prettymuch be gone and we wouldn't be here
and the onlything at this point ( 2018 ) would be wet plate or making ones own emulsion

no, they weren't spot on, weren't even close.
kodak is still here and making film and releasing new or re-releasing emulsions
instax is on fire
polaroid film is reborn through the impossible project and type 55 project
new developers ( atomic monobath and galaxy hyperspeed ) have been made and sold
new 35mm and large format film cameras are being designed and sold
high end MF cameras are still being made and sold
holgas and lomos are being sold like hotcakes too

people predicted lots of things on apug 10 years ago and a lot of it wasn't true...

unfortunately like berkeley mike has shown, the pro lab marketplace and film processing infrastructure
is in shambles but there are still places left.. here we had IDK 6 pages of photofinishing places in the yellow pages at one point
i think we have 2 pro labs left and none will develop every day or process bigger than 120
there are still a few 50 miles north to send to ...

not saying its all beer and skittles but film and paper and cameras and labs are still doing their thing...
and reinventing themselves for the modern hybrid marketplace.
==
harold camping predicted the end of the world

and the subgenius church predicted alien invasion in 1996
and the heaven's gate folks predicted something similar in the 90s
=
people predict all sorts of stuff..

 

[RalphLambrecht]

Hello everyone,

I don't know if this was ever a discussion in another thread but since I am moving myself towards film these days (even though it is very slowly) I was wondering what is your assumption for the future of analogue photography.
I will make my own assumptions based on whatever I learned so far which is profoundly little so please be patient with me.

I think number of people who shoots film will grow in absolute terms however it will still be declining in percentage due to the increase in population and therefore number of people who owns a camera.
I think types of film will be declining but the brands who survive this will be in a much better shape financially.
Some camera manufacturers will introduce new model(s) of analogue cameras since there will be too much competition in digital and there will be so much junk lying around.

These are a few that I can come up with.

Anyways, what is your idea?

I won't see it;I'll be dead then.

 

[Sirius Glass]

and most predictions were close to 100% spot on. More films would be discontinued and the remaining suppliers be in a perilous state. Two out of the three are, leaving one, the smallest surviving.

Past predictions were pretty accurate I'd say.

Past predictions mean absolutely nothing. Past predictions told us that Hillary Clinton would easily be Trump in 2016 and that we had nothing to worry about.