Where do you see Analogue photography in (say) 20 years time ?
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There will still be threads about bring Kodachrome back, there will threads about bring Kodachome back in 50 years from now!
We are doomed! We are doomed! We are doomed! We are doomed! We are doomed! We are doomed!
False equivalence. "Opinions" aren't equal are they? Do you think some photographers offer nothing but technique?
Hope you had a good flight back from Finland.
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I think it will continue being a niche. Shops etc .. are not going to suddenly increase focus with film photography. Prob easier with larger places with more shops etc.
Here in New Zealand other than maybe Auckland there is actually no one that repairs film cameras. There is one in Timaru a small town but they only do 35mm. Or maybe even our largest city Auckland don't even do it. I rang around and they said this small town. So yes, to repair or CLA a medium format or large format camera one here needs to send it to Australia. We cannot get color chemistry anymore, not even press packs. So for us already it is b/w pretty much. There is maybe 2 labs in the country here that does color slide processing a few more C41 places. The place here didn't do E6 but someone else gave up due to earthquake so they bought their machine.
Those who did service film cameras have pretty much here - retired or passed away.
Nikon has pulled out of film cameras. Canon has already too right? I don't know anyone who still sells film cameras, they might still service them like Hasselblad and Mamiya (Phase One) but they still service them.
My thought is that it is going to be pretty much b/w, easier for larger places like USA etc .. HKG, Japan.
E6? Well I send mine overseas in 10 rolls or more to the USA from New Zealand, it's so expensive here. So yeah .. 35mm E6. What's that $18US + $10US processing + freight.
Here in New Zealand other than maybe Auckland there is actually no one that repairs film cameras. There is one in Timaru a small town but they only do 35mm. Or maybe even our largest city Auckland don't even do it. I rang around and they said this small town. So yes, to repair or CLA a medium format or large format camera one here needs to send it to Australia. We cannot get color chemistry anymore, not even press packs. So for us already it is b/w pretty much. There is maybe 2 labs in the country here that does color slide processing a few more C41 places. The place here didn't do E6 but someone else gave up due to earthquake so they bought their machine.
Those who did service film cameras have pretty much here - retired or passed away.
Nikon has pulled out of film cameras. Canon has already too right? I don't know anyone who still sells film cameras, they might still service them like Hasselblad and Mamiya (Phase One) but they still service them.
My thought is that it is going to be pretty much b/w, easier for larger places like USA etc .. HKG, Japan.
E6? Well I send mine overseas in 10 rolls or more to the USA from New Zealand, it's so expensive here. So yeah .. 35mm E6. What's that $18US + $10US processing + freight.
What will really end film use in the future will be the lack of cameras. No one has made a new main stream film camera in several years and no one is likely to in the future. Already hard to get some of them worked on and the folks with that kind of knowledge are getting older and out of that business so no more cameras I'm afraid.
There are enough Nikon FM's, Nikkormats, Canon FTb's, Minolta SRT's, and Pentax K cameras to satisfy all the current and future film photographers for the next 200 years.
I've learned how to fix Pentaxes.
Medium and large format is already in excess. That's why prices are relatively low.
I've learned how to fix Pentaxes.
Medium and large format is already in excess. That's why prices are relatively low.
I did some really rough calculations on available used film cameras.https://www.photrio.com/forum/threads/when-all-of-the-used-film-cameras-are-gone.161098/page-5 . it is #116.
Essentially, the supply is not bottomless.
Essentially, the supply is not bottomless.
No, the supply is finite and decreasing. However, there will always be a supply of old film cameras which I believe exceeds demand. These are cameras such as the Nikon FM, Canon FTb, and others of that era, plus medium format folders, and large format cameras.
The crucial factors for the survival of film photography are (1) the continued production of film and (2) skilled people who can repair cameras and shutters. It is not financially viable now or in the future for any company to produce a film camera with the quality and capabilities of, for example, a Nikon FM. No new film cameras of any significance will ever be introduced again. Just my opinion.
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My point is that" finite" does have a number and that number gives us a sense of proportion. The number of film users currently active will drop, of course, if only by changes in interest, time, or departing this mortal coil; this is true of all enterprises.
Infill from the young set is critical for many such endeavors. Just listen to Golf institutions. While Ilford suggests that 35% of film users are new to the craft and under 30, that number is less than the 39% of shooters of all types being under 30 according to Statista.
Of interest to me is your projection of 200 years. I'm guessing that some of that is hyperbole as opposed to a blue-sky guess or a systematically calculated determination. In any case it is far beyond the 12-20 years I've heard suggested. How did you get to your number?
Infill from the young set is critical for many such endeavors. Just listen to Golf institutions. While Ilford suggests that 35% of film users are new to the craft and under 30, that number is less than the 39% of shooters of all types being under 30 according to Statista.
Of interest to me is your projection of 200 years. I'm guessing that some of that is hyperbole as opposed to a blue-sky guess or a systematically calculated determination. In any case it is far beyond the 12-20 years I've heard suggested. How did you get to your number?
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Maybe there is nuance in the phrase "main stream" that is lost on me but, I'm very much inclined to disagree. We have many examples of new 4x5 and larger cameras in recent years. Another was just announced on kickstarter a little bit ago.
Yes, it's hyperbole. As I mentioned in the other thread, my view may be skewed because I have several friends who repair and sell film cameras - they've been through the camera repair schools of long ago (1980's?) and have been certified by Nikon, Pentax, and a few others. They are the ones who personally maintain my modest collection.
Anyway, I understand why it's good to try to quantify how many film cameras are out there, how long they might last, and what the demand for them might be.
To me, I see so many film cameras available: high quality all-mechanical cameras that need little maintenance to keep them operating decade after decade. These will outlast the newer F6's and EOS 1V's, or any other electronic-dependent camera of the mid-1980's and later. If demand for those is increasing, I can understand the reason. Even so, I would like to see evidence of sustained increased interest in film cameras by younger people. Today we might be seeing a growth spurt, perhaps a reaction to digital as "retro cameras" are "discovered" - but to be significant, interest in film cameras needs to be sustained.
Film cameras may be like mechanical watches: initially they almost disappeared due to newer technology, then there was a resurgence by a select group that appreciated them.
Even so, the last time I actually saw someone (not a friend) with a film camera was 2013. Even at places such as the zoo or the waterfront, I see only cellphones - not even digital cameras.
For these reasons, I think demand for film cameras will always be low in comparison to the supply. It's also why I think the real danger is the loss of film manufacturing.
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I'm guessing that "mainstream" means 35mm DSLR/Mirrorless/prosumer.
Probably. Though I did not use the term "mainstream" in what I wrote.
Fascinating how people, even paid "futurologists" always only can seem to extrapolate the present (perceived) tendencies, or declare the inevitable continuation of status quo, when asked about development of anything over any length of time.
I see a good chance of film becoming ever more important in ways that is hung up on future technical developments, and on the changing attitude of the global civilization toward photos and their status and use.
It is tempting for many to make an analogy to other recent revival media like vinyl, but there is some fundamental differences I think.
For one, film is vastly superior on a number of ways as a image recording medium, and not all of them theoretical.
Whereas vinyl is at best as good as CD/digital with a few negligible advantages and the 45 rpm LP formats as a possible, but niche exception.
Relying mostly on the "candlelight effects" and romanticism.
(If any audio format should make a comeback based on quality of sound it would be reel to reel tape).
Think of Marshall Mcluhans theory of media, which has been much ridiculed, half-read and over-loved by tinfoil hats and people looking for "different", but nevertheless has the interesting ideas of the reversal (of import and use) of old and new media, at their introduction, maturation and in them being pushed to extremes.
I see a good chance of film becoming ever more important in ways that is hung up on future technical developments, and on the changing attitude of the global civilization toward photos and their status and use.
It is tempting for many to make an analogy to other recent revival media like vinyl, but there is some fundamental differences I think.
For one, film is vastly superior on a number of ways as a image recording medium, and not all of them theoretical.
Whereas vinyl is at best as good as CD/digital with a few negligible advantages and the 45 rpm LP formats as a possible, but niche exception.
Relying mostly on the "candlelight effects" and romanticism.
(If any audio format should make a comeback based on quality of sound it would be reel to reel tape).
Think of Marshall Mcluhans theory of media, which has been much ridiculed, half-read and over-loved by tinfoil hats and people looking for "different", but nevertheless has the interesting ideas of the reversal (of import and use) of old and new media, at their introduction, maturation and in them being pushed to extremes.
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analog photography will be as dead as a doornail as soon as the current analog communities have died off.
And so am I when the time comes.
So we have to define "current analog communities" as young as possible. Does that include the lomography folks?
I'll be looking at alalogue photography thru the eyes of an 84 year old -- I have no idea what I'll see...perhaps I will still be making prints.
If I am still around in 2038 (which I doubt) I will be so old as to be beyond caring about pretty well everything and certainly photography, unless of course I have a tripod and one of my eternally functioning Nikkormats bolted to a motorized wheel chair.
If, if, if. The most important 'if' being, will I still be able to buy film and have it processed? This is the biggest the elephant in the room. Going by current film film prices down here in Australia and New Zealand, and the relative scarcity of film retail outlets in most Asian countries I nowadays visit (which I consider odd, given their proximity to film producers in China and Japan and the absence of high tariffs and taxes such as my own country and most other Western nations impose on photo products), film will be a niche product and certainly a rich man's item.
As for equipment, I would expect my 1960s Rolleifexes and Rolleicord, my Nikkormats, my Zeiss Nettars and my Voigtlander Perkeo I to still be functioning. Whether 120 roll film will be around and available is, again, the question.
My Nikon D700, D90, F65s and my Contax G1s like all other electronic digital or film cameras, will probably be toast.
Digital photography will have progressed by several (or even several dozen) generations so as to be improved out of all our current expectations, to a point we currently have no notions of. Cameras as we know them now will most likely be curio items with many by then non-functioning models found in secondhand and charity shops, if these still exist.
Ultimately, however, given the dismal climate change projections we are now facing, I seriously believe the world will be in such a mess, that films, shooting and even photography in general will be the last thing on most survivors' minds.
Yes, dismal, I know. But going on the evidence in front of our noses...
Let us heed the old saying about making hay.
If, if, if. The most important 'if' being, will I still be able to buy film and have it processed? This is the biggest the elephant in the room. Going by current film film prices down here in Australia and New Zealand, and the relative scarcity of film retail outlets in most Asian countries I nowadays visit (which I consider odd, given their proximity to film producers in China and Japan and the absence of high tariffs and taxes such as my own country and most other Western nations impose on photo products), film will be a niche product and certainly a rich man's item.
As for equipment, I would expect my 1960s Rolleifexes and Rolleicord, my Nikkormats, my Zeiss Nettars and my Voigtlander Perkeo I to still be functioning. Whether 120 roll film will be around and available is, again, the question.
My Nikon D700, D90, F65s and my Contax G1s like all other electronic digital or film cameras, will probably be toast.
Digital photography will have progressed by several (or even several dozen) generations so as to be improved out of all our current expectations, to a point we currently have no notions of. Cameras as we know them now will most likely be curio items with many by then non-functioning models found in secondhand and charity shops, if these still exist.
Ultimately, however, given the dismal climate change projections we are now facing, I seriously believe the world will be in such a mess, that films, shooting and even photography in general will be the last thing on most survivors' minds.
Yes, dismal, I know. But going on the evidence in front of our noses...
Let us heed the old saying about making hay.
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What makes you think film technology will stand still, and what makes you assume that digital still images has that much more room for improvement within the current paradigm and materials commonly used?
The same could be said for the digital communities, or any community for that matter.
There's a steady and even growing influx of new recruits all the time to film.
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