It’s been an awful long month then.Film has seen it's hay-day and a half hearted last gasp of interest. Once it's status as the flavour of the month is over with the "hip/cool" people it will return to a minimal steady state. Only the leanest film/paper/chemical suppliers will be able to survive.
And what makes you think it's not true?hope being the only father of this thought.We've heard this for more than a decade and still...
When I opened this thread my goal was to have brain storming about what the future may bring us. This was definitely not coming out of fear because I didn't even shoot a full roll yet so I am the last person to worry about this among you lot. I see a lot of defensive comments most of them revolves around "carpe diem" which certainly was not address the question as to whether your projections about the future of analogue photography look like. If this is how you live your life, good for you; and if you felt the need of sharing this, that's welcome too but it just is not what we talk about here.
I wonder if the same thread was opened in as digital photography what would be the general approach. I don't think it would be negative quite as much.
This is more like a weather forecast or stock exchange projections based on scientific evidence, which btw rarely comes close to being true.
So far vast majority of people agree that it will be a niche product and b&w will survive longer. One fellow member thinks Ilford will be the only brand that survives and I would like to know why for instance.
Thanks to those who shared their opinions so far.
We've heard this for more than a decade and still...
Why? If you want your film back, ask for it. If you don't, don't. What's the big deal? The big boys are out of the game already. CVS, Walgreens and Target no longer develop film. Walmart does but doesn't return the negative. C41 isn't doomed without them.
Can you show data that proves that film is one the rise? "Film is making a comeback," seems less a reality-based claim than a statement of hope made by those invested in that sentiment.And what makes you think it's not true?
Can you show data that proves that film is one the rise? "Film is making a comeback," seems less a reality-based claim than a statement of hope made by those invested in that sentiment.
A comment by an Ilford rep suggest that the demand for film was up 8-10%. Then he followed with the proviso that he wasn't at all sure that this was generalized throughout the market. Kodak mentions that demand for their film had risen 8% over 2 years. The obvious question is, up from what?
The only data I've seen is from an Ilford survey that described the age of film users. It said nothing about volumes. And, while they touted (along with BH and other vendors trying to create buzz)
35% of users were under 30, that segment represents ages 18-30; how many of those will continue in the craft? Simple aging, busier lives and changing interests cut into that pretty quickly.
Well, we do know. We are at 2%or less of the high tide level of 1 billion rolls or 2,000,000 rolls. Ilford, Kodak and Adox want a piece fo that. Fuji doesn't seem to and Ferrenia is working towards manufacture. We have Ukranian and Czech producers, Tasma and Foma; pretty small production. Agfa and Svema make aerial film. All the others draw from that source, effect an art approach, and rebadge.If one were to go back a decade on this very forum, one would find threads about the state of film in 5 or 10 years, (i.e., 2013 and today) and many of the same arguments and predictions in this thread. Bottom line: we - don't - know!
I have lots of community datkrooms open all over the states in the last 2 years...film will be around a lot longer than most of you
And there are labs that have managed to remain open who are absorbing the smaller client bases from defunct labs. You must be doing something right.I have lots of community datkrooms open all over the states in the last 2 years...film will be around a lot longer than most of you
Yes Film sales are up year to year. However Peak Film is long past.
So the real question is : Who will be making film, chemicals and paper in 20years?
Everyone here knows that the price per roll is increasing, the demand is just about balanced with the reduced production (world wide). Industry studies show when the Hipsters/ Millenniums get over there Analog Photography FAD production will slow with the inevitable consequence...
I used to be so privileged as my "employer" would gift me film (Not any more its a hot commodity) I now buy film, anywhere I find it, Ebay is a sign of the market, crazy prices, but I am filling a fridge to extend the life of the film and my love for the process.
Same goes for the chemicals (I run a Noritsu T15 CN16 the last new line of one hour film processors from 2007 ! (Another topic : Aging Equipment) .
ACROS is gone this year, whats next , EKTAR? .
FILM WILL DIE. Thats business, Its a business I have been in for 50years. It sure is SAD but we can still debate it till our last frame!....
Where do you get this information? I've looked pretty widely and there are precious few solid sources of info from within the industry. I've gotten info from Interviews and turned to shooters with broad exposure and some industry contacts.Yes Film sales are up year to year.
If one were to go back a decade on this very forum, one would find threads about the state of film in 5 or 10 years, (i.e., 2013 and today) and many of the same arguments and predictions in this thread. Bottom line: we - don't - know!
and most predictions were close to 100% spot on. More films would be discontinued and the remaining suppliers be in a perilous state. Two out of the three are, leaving one, the smallest surviving.
Past predictions were pretty accurate I'd say.
I won't see it;I'll be dead then.Hello everyone,
I don't know if this was ever a discussion in another thread but since I am moving myself towards film these days (even though it is very slowly) I was wondering what is your assumption for the future of analogue photography.
I will make my own assumptions based on whatever I learned so far which is profoundly little so please be patient with me.
I think number of people who shoots film will grow in absolute terms however it will still be declining in percentage due to the increase in population and therefore number of people who owns a camera.
I think types of film will be declining but the brands who survive this will be in a much better shape financially.
Some camera manufacturers will introduce new model(s) of analogue cameras since there will be too much competition in digital and there will be so much junk lying around.
These are a few that I can come up with.
Anyways, what is your idea?
and most predictions were close to 100% spot on. More films would be discontinued and the remaining suppliers be in a perilous state. Two out of the three are, leaving one, the smallest surviving.
Past predictions were pretty accurate I'd say.
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