This Bodes Bad Things For Film & Papers

[chuckroast]

Fear is a good reason.

It's not really just fear, though that's how it's often described.

In some cases, it's hedging - buying something now at a lower price (or buying the option to do so) because you believe the price is going up and you need the good to have a stable and predicable price to you. Airlines do this all the time with fuel.

In some cases, it's speculation - working on the Buy High, Sell Higher theory of trading.

 

[chuckroast]

To find an analogous case, go back in time to when the Hunt Brothers gained a monopoly over the silver commodity

They tried to corner silver and the market slapped back, eventually into bankruptcy. By 1979 they controlled about 1/3 of the world's non-governmental silver (never the whole market nor a true monopoly). In March of 1980, the prices of silver melted down (so to speak), they got their margin called. They filed bankruptcy in 1988 after they got sued in civil court and lost.


I do not recall film and paper being remarkably expensive before- or after this time.

 

[Hassasin]

It's not an issue of just ramping up production. The mineable silver in the ground is just about depleted.

Can you link your sources ? All indications are there is lots left to mine.

 

[DREW WILEY]

Even the supply of recycled steel is gamed, and that is a built-in factor, unlike current tariff implications. All commodities are gamed by their brokers and shippers. That's what they do.

What is so different about metals like silver and titanium today is they're also in high demand in tech and defense. Gold is tied to perceived wealth security. But rare earths are more likely to spark mining expansion these days, along with lithium. Most of the gold which came out of California in the 20th C, after the former gold rush days, was a byproduct of tungsten mining when that was in high demand. It's still there in them thar hills, but outdoor recreation which preserves the scenery rather than tearing it apart it is actually a lot more profitable and sustainable to local economies than mining. Large scale silver mining is still going on in Nevada.

 

[chuckroast]

Even the supply of recycled steel is gamed, and that is a built-in factor, unlike current tariff implications. All commodities are gamed by their brokers and shippers. That's what they do.

What is so different about metals like silver and titanium today is they're also in high demand in tech and defense. Gold is tied to perceived wealth security. But rare earths are more likely to spark mining expansion these days, along with lithium. Most of the gold which came out of California in the 20th C, after the former gold rush days, was a byproduct of tungsten mining when that was in high demand. It's still there in them thar hills, but outdoor recreation which preserves the scenery rather than tearing it apart it is actually a lot more profitable and sustainable to local economies than mining. Large scale silver mining is still going on in Nevada.

Not to mention the tremendous amount of gold Russia is holding as a backstop for their economy.

In any case, I am still hedging my film and paper supply, building toward what I am likely to use until EOL, since prices seem unlikely to go down in absolute terms.

 

[DREW WILEY]

I haven't printed anything since June. I'm holding back paper consumption until I have the opportunity to get some fresh 8x10 shots. Ordinarily, this would be a wonderful time of year for a road trip. I even just got my truck suspension overhauled, with new tires too. Film holders are already loaded. But my go-to location options seems to be getting flash flooded badly, or are now past their prime in terms of fall foliage, or are just plain too rainy wet at the moment. Then there's the Govt shutdown dilemma, which has ironically inundated some of our Natl Parks with hordes of people eager to break rules of conduct. And I'm anxious about an 82 yr old friend who went backbacking by himself right before the season's first significant snowstorm hit; he probably has enough food with him to wait out the storm in his tent, but I'd still like to know. Maybe there will be a mild Indian Summer around the corner soon. The nice thing about being retired is having flexibility of scheduling.

Many of our mountain locations are far less populated today than they were in the apogee of mining days. My mother's uncle was a circuit preacher with a congregation of about six to ten grubby miners, back when Silver City, Nevada was a boom town with over 200 bars and brothels, and at least two murders a day.

 

[chuckroast]

I haven't printed anything since June. I'm holding back paper consumption until I have the opportunity to get some fresh 8x10 shots. Ordinarily, this would be a wonderful time of year for a road trip. I even just got my truck suspension overhauled, with new tires too. Film holders are already loaded. But my go-to location options seems to be getting flash flooded badly, or are now past their prime in terms of fall foliage, or are just plain too rainy wet at the moment. Then there's the Govt shutdown dilemma, which has ironically inundated some of our Natl Parks with hordes of people eager to break rules of conduct. And I'm anxious about an 82 yr old friend who went backbacking by himself right before the season's first significant snowstorm hit; he probably has enough food with him to wait out the storm in his tent, but I'd still like to know. Maybe there will be a mild Indian Summer around the corner soon. The nice thing about being retired is having flexibility of scheduling.

Many of our mountain locations are far less populated today than they were in the apogee of mining days. My mother's uncle was a circuit preacher with a congregation of about six to ten grubby miners, back when Silver City, Nevada was a boom town with over 200 bars and brothels, and at least two murders a day.

I print 3-8 prints per week either of new work or doing catch up printing for my workbooks. I figure I need to do this now before either silver printing gets unacceptably expensive and/or I go meet my Maker and explain why I did what I did.

 

[MattKing]

I print 3-8 prints per week either of new work or doing catch up printing for my workbooks. I figure I need to do this now before either silver printing gets unacceptably expensive and/or I go meet my Maker and explain why I did what I did.

What will your response be if when you meet your maker you discover that she wears flip flops and tye-dye and has an Instax Mini slung around her neck?

 

[chuckroast]

What will your response be if when you meet your maker you discover that she wears flip flops and tye-dye and has an Instax Mini slung around her neck?

I would be shocked ... I don't think I am going to hell

 

[loccdor]

Gold and silver have always had jumps and starts. They average out to something reasonably stable if you ignore the noise and focus on long timescales. Stable enough that they are considered a poor investment by many in comparison to the stock market, and regarded as ballast or insurance by others.

 

[DREW WILEY]

Flipflops, tie dye, and an Instax? That means you went to the bad place instead. However, the lowest pit of Dante's Inferno is reserved for cell phones and selfie sticks.

And loccdor - sure, just wait it out - six feet under - until the price stabilizes again. Long time scales might favor evolution for better or worse, but not personal plans. We're apparently talking about "survival of the greediest".

 

[jeffreyg]

To find an analogous case, go back in time to when the Hunt Brothers gained a monopoly over the silver commodity.
Lots of b&w photographers had to stop printing entirely because paper had gotten so expensive. It's pretty nuts already, right now, while the price of silver keeps climbing. Most metal indexes are getting ridiculous, due to irrational tariffs. But precious metals, as a kind of security - gold, platinum, and silver, have really gone over the top. Keep in mind that coaters like Kodak and Ilford have to acquire significant stockpiles of silver ingredients at propitious intervals. They don't make one sheet of film at a time! And at that point back in time, when they were in head to head competition with the Hunt Brothers, they lost. Now they're a far smaller business entity with far less leverage. It's gonna hurt.

Time to pull some of your teeth and sell any gold or silver fillings. That won't work for me, since the cheapo insurance dentists I had to go to probably substituted lead solder instead. It's easier to polish with a Dremel tool.

Being a retired dentist I can assure you that we did not use lead or any other solder!!! I was in practice at that time and actually Kodak changed the amount of silver in xray film and increased the price. When the price of silver came down they didn’t lower the price. Now most xrays are digital and most fillings are composite resins. (Actually for quite some time). I was a fee for service practitioner and was never on any insurance plans but did accept insurance with the patient paying the difference. If your fillings were well done and you took proper care of your teeth they should be serviceable for a long time.

 

[Pioneer]

It's not an issue of just ramping up production. The mineable silver in the ground is just about depleted.

Wow! I know of at least 20 properties just in my area alone with very large silver deposits, not to mention gold. Try not to worry too much. Precious metal mining companies are alive and well.

 

[Todd Niccole]

Can you link your sources ? All indications are there is lots left to mine.

I have casually come across other articles over the years that forecasted silver reserve depletion by the end of this decade or early the next. In historical terms I think we have stepped into the beginning of steep decline. I wouldn't be surprised if the photographic industry is near dead in less than ten years.

A Forecast of When We’ll Run Out of Each Metal

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mikesmoneytalks.ca

Silver Inventories Could Be Depleted as Early as 2025

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[loccdor]

And loccdor - sure, just wait it out - six feet under - until the price stabilizes again. Long time scales might favor evolution for better or worse, but not personal plans. We're apparently talking about "survival of the greediest".

Don't get me wrong Drew, I'm not encouraging anyone to put their life savings into precious metals. I have about 2% of my savings in it.

 

[loccdor]

I have casually come across other articles over the years that forecasted silver reserve depletion by the end of this decade or early the next. In historical terms I think we have stepped into the beginning of steep decline. I wouldn't be surprised if the photographic industry is near dead in less than ten years.

Sorry, but I believe this is hysterics, similar to the "Peak Oil" craze of the 2000s. The earth is a mighty big place. It's less about the amount of each thing, as it is about our ability to find them.

 

[DREW WILEY]

Hi Jeffrey - the problem with digital X-Rays is that they can be manipulated. I walked out of a Dental office a couple years ago which tried to scam me with a highly suspect one. There were quite a few other red flags, like his office staff getting my paperwork mixed up with someone else's three times in a row, and the dentist himself being a no-show for one appointment. I lost my good insurance once I retired, and all the local Medicare options are horrible. But I used to tease the good one about using a jackhammer, and finding a lot more cavities once his first child entered dental school himself (with 11 more kids to go, needing tuition!).

Todd - I'd take a lot of those web rumors with a grain of salt. Many of them are trying to entice people into investing in this or that. Dan (Pioneer) is from a part of Nevada where considerable mining is still going on. They're more aware than anyone else of the risks and rewards of these cycles. With gold in particular, extraction requires quite a bit of water, which itself is a precious substance in dry climates.

 

[jeffreyg]

Drew I’m sorry you had bad experiences but the vast majority of dentists are honest and caring for their patients. At least I and the ones I associated with were. Florida had rather strict rules and regulations and those who were caught violating them were dealt with by the Dental Board. When I started the board exam was notorious for being difficult and rules about office signage, business cards and stationery were strict. Today things are different with advertising etc but I think the majority are still “old school” and treat their patients fairly and with care. Those I know do. If you were here I could give you good referrals. The cost of new equipment, technology, materials and operating an office is very high so good quality care is costly.

 

[gbroadbridge]

I have casually come across other articles over the years that forecasted silver reserve depletion by the end of this decade or early the next. In historical terms I think we have stepped into the beginning of steep decline. I wouldn't be surprised if the photographic industry is near dead in less than ten years.

There is probably about 10 times more silver in the oceans than has been mined by mankind so far, and about 20 times as much gold.

I'm not losing sleep over running out any time soon.

Of course there are those who would like folks to believe doomsday is at hand.

 

[Hassasin]

I have casually come across other articles over the years that forecasted silver reserve depletion by the end of this decade or early the next. In historical terms I think we have stepped into the beginning of steep decline. I wouldn't be surprised if the photographic industry is near dead in less than ten years.

A Forecast of When We’ll Run Out of Each Metal

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks Podcast. Financial commentary of stocks, equities, real estate, and commodities such as gold, silver, and other precious metals.

mikesmoneytalks.ca

Silver Inventories Could Be Depleted as Early as 2025

According to some predictions, silver inventories could be depleted as early as 2025 due to surging industrial demand, which will have far-reaching implications for the silver market, investors…

nai500.com

We were also told we'd be done as a planet by 2030, that's 5 years from now. I think we have enough silver to make it to the end on film alone, no digital capture required

 

[koraks]

I have casually come across other articles over the years that forecasted silver reserve depletion by the end of this decade or early the next.

Like Peak Oil. Likewise, the end of optical lithography is always 7 years on the horizon, and commercial nuclear fusion has been 40 years in the future for some 70 years by now.
The thing with a concept like 'mineable' silver is that it depends a lot on what we consider 'mineable'. And then there's the other two factors: demand and supply from non-virgin sources. All three factors change over time. One of the simple effects is that as the commodity gets more costly, costlier production methods become more attractive.

 

[Hassasin]

Let's not forget how commodities markets work. SIlver just jumped in price not because of its depletion status, but because of gold going so high, money needed new place to land on. It's possible the trend will continue.