This Bodes Bad Things For Film & Papers

[polaromar]

I have casually come across other articles over the years that forecasted silver reserve depletion by the end of this decade or early the next. In historical terms I think we have stepped into the beginning of steep decline. I wouldn't be surprised if the photographic industry is near dead in less than ten years.

A Forecast of When We’ll Run Out of Each Metal

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks Podcast. Financial commentary of stocks, equities, real estate, and commodities such as gold, silver, and other precious metals.

mikesmoneytalks.ca

Silver Inventories Could Be Depleted as Early as 2025

According to some predictions, silver inventories could be depleted as early as 2025 due to surging industrial demand, which will have far-reaching implications for the silver market, investors…

nai500.com

Another day, another article warning about the end of the world

7 years in the extractives industry doesn't literally mean that it's all over by then. To sum it up briefly, a figure like that, in the industry, means that there are enough resources proven to exist, to sustain profitable extraction for the next 7 years, at today's market price & without any improvements in technologies or discovery of new deposits. What happens when those 7 years are up? The price goes up, and deposits that didn't use to be profitable, are now profitable. This is what happens frequently with oil, the shale revolution is a good example of how new processes and the rising market value of oil made it profitable to extract.

Silver is going up but I highly doubt that it will have much effect on the industry at this moment. Maybe if it quadrupled then things would be different.

 

[Pioneer]

Don't kid yourself. The price of film is going up. But so is the price of everything. At least the price of eggs have dropped a bit recently.

I have to pay over $150 for a 100 foot roll of Kodak TMAX now. It wasn't all that long ago that I was paying about $60 for that 100 foot roll. But people must still be buying it because they are still selling it!

As long as they are selling it I'm happy.

 

[chuckroast]

Don't kid yourself. The price of film is going up. But so is the price of everything. At least the price of eggs have dropped a bit recently.

I have to pay over $150 for a 100 foot roll of Kodak TMAX now. It wasn't all that long ago that I was paying about $60 for that 100 foot roll. But people must still be buying it because they are still selling it!

As long as they are selling it I'm happy.

The last few times I've done the analysis, cost of film, at least, when normed for inflation is higher than it was in, say, 1975, but not insanely so. In fast, it may be lower. I asked my friendly, neighbourhood AI about this and ..

The price of a roll of 135-36 Kodak Tri-X film in 1975 was about $2.05 (single roll price from a 1975 list with processing included). Adjusting for inflation with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the inflation factor from 1975 to 2025 is about 6.08. This means a roll costing $2.05 in 1975 would be approximately $12.46 in 2025 dollars.

Today, the price of Kodak Tri-X 135-36 film is estimated to be around $7 to $10 per roll after a price reduction announced in 2024. This is significantly lower than the inflation-adjusted price from 1975.


These are US numbers and are likely lower both in absolute and relative terms internationally.

 

[Hassasin]

Inflation is not linear to all products & services. There are usually few, often very few, market factors that drive inflation up. At same time some products & services can actually go down in price.

Would you invest in something that is at all time high (gold) or something that has, likely, long way to get there (silver). Market value ceiling for silver is absolutely unknown, but sure thing, factors that upped its price recently have no connection to film production or related demand.

 

[Greg_E2]

I have casually come across other articles over the years that forecasted silver reserve depletion by the end of this decade or early the next. In historical terms I think we have stepped into the beginning of steep decline. I wouldn't be surprised if the photographic industry is near dead in less than ten years.

A Forecast of When We’ll Run Out of Each Metal

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks Podcast. Financial commentary of stocks, equities, real estate, and commodities such as gold, silver, and other precious metals.

mikesmoneytalks.ca

Silver Inventories Could Be Depleted as Early as 2025

According to some predictions, silver inventories could be depleted as early as 2025 due to surging industrial demand, which will have far-reaching implications for the silver market, investors…

nai500.com

Remember when I said the price of silver is often manipulated for gains? These articles are generally part of this process? Having lived the past 20+ years monitoring prices since my dad has a bunch of coin based investment, the averages are low with short term spikes while rich people are getting more wealthy.

 

[mshchem]

It's all going to be fine.

 

[DREW WILEY]

Hassasin - It has little to do with what "you" would invest in or not. All kinds of illogical things are done in a panic, and there are plenty of interests all too willing to create a stampede. Regardless, those truly industrially dependent on something like silver aren't going to buy it at the top of the swell, even if it comprises only a few percent of the final product. Mfg corporations live or die on small percentage differences of profit, especially when everything else they need is rapidly going up in cost.

And Greg - 20 years is a tiny blip. I've still got a few boxes of film in the freezer older than that.