This Bodes Bad Things For Film & Papers

[chuckroast]

Just one data point, but ...

India Funds Halt Silver ETF Investment Amid Unprecedented Global Shortage | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[koraks]

Just one data point

And one with a very indirect link to the photographic industry and the long term. I read nothing particularly new or more worrying than what we've been hearing for months years on that page.

 

[chuckroast]

And one with a very indirect link to the photographic industry and the long term. I read nothing particularly new or more worrying than what we've been hearing for months years on that page.

This doesn't seem faster/worse that previous such cycles? I don't track commodities, so I honestly don't know.

For clarity, I should have said it bodes badly for prices of film and paper.

 

[koraks]

This doesn't seem faster/worse that previous such cycles?

I think we need to be clear on what we're looking at in that blog. Here's the 5-year development:

As said, this has been going on for quite some time.

The charts shown in the blog are a bit more ambiguous in their interpretation. Note also that the discussion is very specifically about one aspect of trade (and a very small one at that; note the total assets in these funds, which are...well, tiny), and that the article notes that...

Goldman believes this squeeze will be temporary expecting that within 1-2 weeks we’ll see significant physical inflows from China and the US into LBMA and the curve ultimately eases

I'd be cautious in drawing any conclusions from this for the photographic industry. Are precious metal prices on the rise? Yes, absolutely. That's nothing new, though.

PS: for some more historical perspective:

It's not unprecedented that silver is skyrocketing. It does this every once in a while, generally for fairly obvious reasons - i.e. increased risk perception in the stock trade and/or general lack of confidence in the economy, resulting in a flight into noble metals.

 

[Arthurwg]

The silver price should encourage production.

 

[MattKing]

Unfortunately, the current market discourages use of silver for commercial and industrial purposes, and encourages use of silver as an investment vehicle, better hoarded than put to productive use.
I expect the various other global economic disruptions - including in particular disruptions to the petrochemical supply markets in Europe - probably have as much or more effect on photographic film and paper costs.

 

[Greg_E2]

Hmmm... I guess I better call my dad, he has a bunch of coins bought as an investment and now looks like a good time to ditch them before the price drops again.

Keep in mind that the price of silver and gold is often artificially manipulated, it could be down to $20 an ounce next month (again).

 

[Alan Edward Klein]

How much silver is in a roll of 35mm or an 8x10"?

 

[Greg_E2]

Not very much, I'd guess less than a gram in an 8x10.

 

[chuckroast]

How much silver is in a roll of 35mm or an 8x10"?

Silver content of BW film in g/cm2

I've been searching the web for some data on silver content of film to see whether these price rises in film are really justified by the increase in the silver price. Please can someone contribute a figure for the mass of silver bromide in film in g/cm2. I have been using a figure of...

www.photrio.com

 

[DREW WILEY]

To find an analogous case, go back in time to when the Hunt Brothers gained a monopoly over the silver commodity.
Lots of b&w photographers had to stop printing entirely because paper had gotten so expensive. It's pretty nuts already, right now, while the price of silver keeps climbing. Most metal indexes are getting ridiculous, due to irrational tariffs. But precious metals, as a kind of security - gold, platinum, and silver, have really gone over the top. Keep in mind that coaters like Kodak and Ilford have to acquire significant stockpiles of silver ingredients at propitious intervals. They don't make one sheet of film at a time! And at that point back in time, when they were in head to head competition with the Hunt Brothers, they lost. Now they're a far smaller business entity with far less leverage. It's gonna hurt.

Time to pull some of your teeth and sell any gold or silver fillings. That won't work for me, since the cheapo insurance dentists I had to go to probably substituted lead solder instead. It's easier to polish with a Dremel tool.

 

[Alan Edward Klein]

Based on 200 milligrams per square feet at BW at $50 ounce for silver, a 20 sheet box of 8x10 would have about $4 worth of silver.

 

[DREW WILEY]

That's like calculating the cost of a new car bumper according to the amount of raw unprocessed chrome that goes into the plating. Then you also have to factor that bumpers are produced thousands at a time, or not at all, and all of that involves a lot of expensive machinery plus wages.

And because you only scan your shots, you might not be aware of how silver based print papers have themselves risen dramatically in price in recent years, and it's unlikely to get better.

 

[Greg_E2]

That's like calculating the cost of a new car bumper according to the amount of raw unprocessed chrome that goes into the plating. Then you also have to factor that bumpers are produced thousands at a time, or not at all, and all of that involves a lot of expensive machinery plus wages.

And because you only scan your shots, you might not be aware of how silver based print papers have themselves risen dramatically in price in recent years, and it's unlikely to get better.

I don't think anyone is claiming that paper or film is only worth the amount of silver present. Of course there are expenses, the coating process is pretty involved, especially since it needs to be done in the dark.

 

[DREW WILEY]

Not much different from economics, which often seems to be done in the dark too.

 

[mshchem]

Chrome bumpers

 

[Hassasin]

Maybe the time has come to find the "windmill" for making light sensitive emulsion.

 

[mshchem]

Everything is relative. EK and Ilford have their backs covered. I think Kodak is still manufacturing silver nitrate, they might be sitting on a "gold mine" so to speak, I doubt that these guys are going to be hurt in the near term.

It's always doomsday. No worries.

 

[koraks]

That's like calculating the cost of a new car bumper according to the amount of raw unprocessed chrome that goes into the plating. Then you also have to factor that bumpers are produced thousands at a time, or not at all, and all of that involves a lot of expensive machinery plus wages.

Which is exactly why the cost of the bumper isn't affected very strongly by the cost of the chrome itself, and the cost of the film isn't (shouldn't) be affected very strongly by the cost of the silver alone.

Not much different from economics, which often seems to be done in the dark too.

There's a difference between economics being in the dark on something, and someone being in the dark on economics.

 

[Todd Niccole]

The silver price should encourage production.

It's not an issue of just ramping up production. The mineable silver in the ground is just about depleted.

 

[Alan Johnson]

Demand has exceeded supply since 2022. Production is not very price sensitive, much silver being a by product from the production of other metals.

SILVER SUPPLY & DEMAND - The Silver Institute

The Silver Institute provides leading research on silver supply and demand, including current and yearly data on silver demand, pricing, and production.

silverinstitute.org

 

[John Wiegerink]

My biggest fear is this will be an "EXCUSE" to raise prices and sometimes even on things not even closely related. You put fear into the consumer and they are already bracing for a price hike. A good example of this was several of our Meijer's Stores gas stations raised the price of gas very shortly (with in a few hours) after the attack on 9/11, for no reason other than fear. Luckily our Attorney General stepped in and Meijer's Corp. ended up paying a big fine. Unfortunately many other retailers and companies got away with it. We'll see what happens I guess. All I know is that being on a now fixed income I might just be pushed to either start hoarding film and paper or just take to the alternative, which is dusting off my hardly used Sony A7RII. God forbid!

 

[Arthurwg]

Silver price now about $54/ oz.That's rather expensive. Up from $11 when I started photography. And BTW, gold is also depleted. That's why it's $4400/ oz today.

 

[Arthurwg]

....... for no reason other than fear.

Fear is a good reason.

 

[retina_restoration]

It is man’s nature to seek out things to invest his worry in. Invest in the actions that feed your creative nature instead.