This Bodes Bad Things For Film & Papers

polaromar · Oct 16, 2025

Todd Niccole said:
I have casually come across other articles over the years that forecasted silver reserve depletion by the end of this decade or early the next. In historical terms I think we have stepped into the beginning of steep decline. I wouldn't be surprised if the photographic industry is near dead in less than ten years.

A Forecast of When We’ll Run Out of Each Metal

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks Podcast. Financial commentary of stocks, equities, real estate, and commodities such as gold, silver, and other precious metals.

mikesmoneytalks.ca

Silver Inventories Could Be Depleted as Early as 2025

According to some predictions, silver inventories could be depleted as early as 2025 due to surging industrial demand, which will have far-reaching implications for the silver market, investors…

nai500.com

Another day, another article warning about the end of the world

7 years in the extractives industry doesn't literally mean that it's all over by then. To sum it up briefly, a figure like that, in the industry, means that there are enough resources proven to exist, to sustain profitable extraction for the next 7 years, at today's market price & without any improvements in technologies or discovery of new deposits. What happens when those 7 years are up? The price goes up, and deposits that didn't use to be profitable, are now profitable. This is what happens frequently with oil, the shale revolution is a good example of how new processes and the rising market value of oil made it profitable to extract.

Silver is going up but I highly doubt that it will have much effect on the industry at this moment. Maybe if it quadrupled then things would be different.

Pioneer · Oct 16, 2025

Don't kid yourself. The price of film is going up. But so is the price of everything. At least the price of eggs have dropped a bit recently.

I have to pay over $150 for a 100 foot roll of Kodak TMAX now. It wasn't all that long ago that I was paying about $60 for that 100 foot roll. But people must still be buying it because they are still selling it!

As long as they are selling it I'm happy.

chuckroast · Oct 16, 2025

Pioneer said:
Don't kid yourself. The price of film is going up. But so is the price of everything. At least the price of eggs have dropped a bit recently.

I have to pay over $150 for a 100 foot roll of Kodak TMAX now. It wasn't all that long ago that I was paying about $60 for that 100 foot roll. But people must still be buying it because they are still selling it!

As long as they are selling it I'm happy.

The last few times I've done the analysis, cost of film, at least, when normed for inflation is higher than it was in, say, 1975, but not insanely so. In fast, it may be lower. I asked my friendly, neighbourhood AI about this and ..

The price of a roll of 135-36 Kodak Tri-X film in 1975 was about $2.05 (single roll price from a 1975 list with processing included). Adjusting for inflation with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the inflation factor from 1975 to 2025 is about 6.08. This means a roll costing $2.05 in 1975 would be approximately $12.46 in 2025 dollars.

Today, the price of Kodak Tri-X 135-36 film is estimated to be around $7 to $10 per roll after a price reduction announced in 2024. This is significantly lower than the inflation-adjusted price from 1975.

These are US numbers and are likely lower both in absolute and relative terms internationally.

Hassasin · Oct 16, 2025

Inflation is not linear to all products & services. There are usually few, often very few, market factors that drive inflation up. At same time some products & services can actually go down in price.

Would you invest in something that is at all time high (gold) or something that has, likely, long way to get there (silver). Market value ceiling for silver is absolutely unknown, but sure thing, factors that upped its price recently have no connection to film production or related demand.

Greg_E2 · Oct 16, 2025

Todd Niccole said:
I have casually come across other articles over the years that forecasted silver reserve depletion by the end of this decade or early the next. In historical terms I think we have stepped into the beginning of steep decline. I wouldn't be surprised if the photographic industry is near dead in less than ten years.

A Forecast of When We’ll Run Out of Each Metal

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks Podcast. Financial commentary of stocks, equities, real estate, and commodities such as gold, silver, and other precious metals.

mikesmoneytalks.ca

Silver Inventories Could Be Depleted as Early as 2025

According to some predictions, silver inventories could be depleted as early as 2025 due to surging industrial demand, which will have far-reaching implications for the silver market, investors…

nai500.com

Remember when I said the price of silver is often manipulated for gains? These articles are generally part of this process? Having lived the past 20+ years monitoring prices since my dad has a bunch of coin based investment, the averages are low with short term spikes while rich people are getting more wealthy.

mshchem · Oct 16, 2025

It's all going to be fine.

DREW WILEY · Oct 16, 2025

Hassasin - It has little to do with what "you" would invest in or not. All kinds of illogical things are done in a panic, and there are plenty of interests all too willing to create a stampede. Regardless, those truly industrially dependent on something like silver aren't going to buy it at the top of the swell, even if it comprises only a few percent of the final product. Mfg corporations live or die on small percentage differences of profit, especially when everything else they need is rapidly going up in cost.

And Greg - 20 years is a tiny blip. I've still got a few boxes of film in the freezer older than that.

Hassasin · Oct 16, 2025

DREW WILEY said:
Hassasin - It has little to do with what "you" would invest in or not. All kinds of illogical things are done in a panic, and there are plenty of interests all too willing to create a stampede. Regardless, those truly industrially dependent on something like silver aren't going to buy it at the top of the swell, even if it comprises only a few percent of the final product. Mfg corporations live or die on small percentage differences of profit, especially when everything else they need is rapidly going up in cost.

And Greg - 20 years is a tiny blip. I've still got a few boxes of film in the freezer older than that.

My point was silver has been on sidelines for a long time, copper is far better commodity and far more useful on many levels, but with so much (fake) money floating around, we can only hope this spike in silver, as display of market greed, is indeed just a bleep. For now it is unlikely to have any effect on sensitive material pricing for a few more years, but if this does become a new investors' girlfriend, it will eventually affect everything it is used for.

Silver or any commodity dependent industries, don't buy at peaks, as typically they have long term supply deals. Time will tell how long this run will last though. For now we're seeing some 25% up-trend in a month, things were rather quiet before Sep 18. I'm not worried, not my thing anyways.

DREW WILEY · Oct 16, 2025

The problem with volatility is that it is volatility, and hard to predict. All these precious metals are somewhat subject to the tantrums of international feuds and politics, perhaps now more than ever. The US no doubt has plenty of hypothetical or even known reserves of silver left, but it's not necessarily easy to get, especially from an enviro impact aspect. Large scale copper extraction can be hellish if it gets into watersheds. Gold extraction needs lots and lots of water; and it doesn't help that much of it in the US is on water-impoverished landscapes with multiple users and wildlife needs bitterly competing for the same diminishing supply.

The copper commodity can be extremely volatile. I remember when someone took a shot at the dictator Pinochet in Chile, where much of it comes from, and the price of copper doubled in a single day. And that applied to anything mainly copper, whether electrical wiring or copper pipe already manufactured.

The only gold I use is 1% gold chloride. But that has more than doubled in price in just the last few months, in effect, potentially costing me another $100 a year. But I have nearly a year's worth on hand already, so will use that first, and hope it won't go up even worse in the meantime.

Pioneer · Oct 16, 2025

chuckroast said:
The last few times I've done the analysis, cost of film, at least, when normed for inflation is higher than it was in, say, 1975, but not insanely so. In fast, it may be lower. I asked my friendly, neighbourhood AI about this and ..

The price of a roll of 135-36 Kodak Tri-X film in 1975 was about $2.05 (single roll price from a 1975 list with processing included). Adjusting for inflation with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the inflation factor from 1975 to 2025 is about 6.08. This means a roll costing $2.05 in 1975 would be approximately $12.46 in 2025 dollars.

Today, the price of Kodak Tri-X 135-36 film is estimated to be around $7 to $10 per roll after a price reduction announced in 2024. This is significantly lower than the inflation-adjusted price from 1975.

These are US numbers and are likely lower both in absolute and relative terms internationally.

Thanks chuckroast...that is interesting information. All I really worried about though are two things; 1) are they still selling it and; 2) can I afford it. So far the answer is still yes but speaking as an old fart that is retired, the answer to number two is that Kodak is getting very, very close to pricing me out of their market. As such I may have to start buying overseas products and I have really been trying to avoid that. I like most Kodak films so I prefer to use them if I can.

DREW WILEY · Oct 16, 2025

I have plenty of sheet film still stashed away in my freezer, mostly purchased at about a fourth of current prices, yet still fresh enough to be fully usable. Roll film is best purchased closer to the time of use; so I don't keep a lot of that around at any one time. But it's the price of paper itself causing me to significantly slow down its rate of use. The skyrocketing prince of good museum board is even worse. I'm on a retirement fixed income myself, and the stash of nuts and acorns I've got squirreled away in the ground at the base of the tree has to last the duration. I'm also bracing for the hit on my wife's health insurance, since she won't be eligible for Medicare for a number of years more. It all adds up.

gbroadbridge · Oct 16, 2025

Pioneer said:
the answer to number two is that Kodak is getting very, very close to pricing me out of their market. As such I may have to start buying overseas products and I have really been trying to avoid that. I like most Kodak films so I prefer to use them if I can.

Overseas product prices have not gone up more than local?

Pioneer · Oct 16, 2025

gbroadbridge said:
Overseas product prices have not gone up more than local?

Even though it has gone up the cost was always lower. Ilford is about the same as Kodak but other discount films are less.

Alan Edward Klein · Oct 17, 2025

polaromar said:
Another day, another article warning about the end of the world

7 years in the extractives industry doesn't literally mean that it's all over by then. To sum it up briefly, a figure like that, in the industry, means that there are enough resources proven to exist, to sustain profitable extraction for the next 7 years, at today's market price & without any improvements in technologies or discovery of new deposits. What happens when those 7 years are up? The price goes up, and deposits that didn't use to be profitable, are now profitable. This is what happens frequently with oil, the shale revolution is a good example of how new processes and the rising market value of oil made it profitable to extract.

Silver is going up but I highly doubt that it will have much effect on the industry at this moment. Maybe if it quadrupled then things would be different.

I had a relative who was a geology professor at City University of NY. Fifty years ago he bemoaned the fact were going to run out of oil very soon. I think they were saying the same thing about running out of food. Obviously, he was wrong. Now that we're looking for rare earth, we'll find it all over the place. Huge new deposit of gold was recently found.

Alan Edward Klein · Oct 17, 2025

chuckroast said:
The last few times I've done the analysis, cost of film, at least, when normed for inflation is higher than it was in, say, 1975, but not insanely so. In fast, it may be lower. I asked my friendly, neighbourhood AI about this and ..

The price of a roll of 135-36 Kodak Tri-X film in 1975 was about $2.05 (single roll price from a 1975 list with processing included). Adjusting for inflation with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the inflation factor from 1975 to 2025 is about 6.08. This means a roll costing $2.05 in 1975 would be approximately $12.46 in 2025 dollars.

Today, the price of Kodak Tri-X 135-36 film is estimated to be around $7 to $10 per roll after a price reduction announced in 2024. This is significantly lower than the inflation-adjusted price from 1975.

These are US numbers and are likely lower both in absolute and relative terms internationally.

The biggest problem with inflation is that salaries are usually the last to go up.

Alan Edward Klein · Oct 17, 2025

Pioneer said:
Thanks chuckroast...that is interesting information. All I really worried about though are two things; 1) are they still selling it and; 2) can I afford it. So far the answer is still yes but speaking as an old fart that is retired, the answer to number two is that Kodak is getting very, very close to pricing me out of their market. As such I may have to start buying overseas products and I have really been trying to avoid that. I like most Kodak films so I prefer to use them if I can.

I think Kodak has heard your complaint. Hence Kodacolor 100 and 200 at $9 a roll. Unfortunately, it's not pro film but they're trying to split the baby.

Pioneer · Oct 17, 2025

Alan Edward Klein said:
I think Kodak has heard your complaint. Hence Kodacolor 100 and 200 at $9 a roll. Unfortunately, it's not pro film but they're trying to split the baby.

I seen that. I guess I might have to try a couple of rolls to see how it turns out before I really start whining. But Kodacolor still isn't black & white.

retina_restoration · Oct 17, 2025

Pioneer said:
Even though it has gone up the cost was always lower. Ilford is about the same as Kodak but other discount films are less.

At B&H today, 120 rolls of Kodak TMY are $8.80 each, whereas Ilford Delta 400 is $12.49 and 35mm prices are similar: Ilford films are considerably more expensive now.
I don't understand how you concluded that Ilford films are less expensive than Kodak in 2025. The reverse was true 3 years ago, but not today.

Pioneer · Oct 17, 2025

retina_restoration said:
At B&H today, 120 rolls of Kodak TMY are $8.80 each, whereas Ilford Delta 400 is $12.49 and 35mm prices are similar: Ilford films are considerably more expensive now.
I don't understand how you concluded that Ilford films are less expensive than Kodak in 2025. The reverse was true 3 years ago, but not today.

Sorry, I haven't used a lot of Ilford film except in large format. I have been going off my older shopping lists but I do see that Ilford prices have jumped as well. I guess they are trying to pay for their newer projects.

chuckroast · Oct 17, 2025

retina_restoration said:
At B&H today, 120 rolls of Kodak TMY are $8.80 each, whereas Ilford Delta 400 is $12.49 and 35mm prices are similar: Ilford films are considerably more expensive now.
I don't understand how you concluded that Ilford films are less expensive than Kodak in 2025. The reverse was true 3 years ago, but not today.

This may be a price distortion due to the new tariffs in place.

In a related note, I read yesterday that the US coffers are now enriched to the tune of almost ~~$1 Trillion~~ (unable to verify this number anywhere, so it is suspect) due to said tariffs. When you see prices increases as above, they should be understood to be "consumer taxation by other means". Whether you support this or not is a matter of your understanding of politics and economics (and how close to the mod's sun you want to fly

Pioneer · Oct 17, 2025

chuckroast said:
This may be a price distortion due to the new tariffs in place.

In a related note, I read yesterday that the US coffers are now enriched to the tune of almost $1 Trillion due to said tariffs. When you see prices increases as above, they should be understood to be "consumer taxation by other means". Whether you support this or not is a matter of your understanding of politics and economics (and how close to the mod's sun you want to fly

I have already hijacked this post enough. I'll stay out of that one.

GregY · Oct 17, 2025

retina_restoration said:
At B&H today, 120 rolls of Kodak TMY are $8.80 each, whereas Ilford Delta 400 is $12.49 and 35mm prices are similar: Ilford films are considerably more expensive now.
I don't understand how you concluded that Ilford films are less expensive than Kodak in 2025. The reverse was true 3 years ago, but not today.

That's likely the effect of tariffs "consumer taxation".
In Canada Ilford Delta 120 is $8.50 ($6.07 USD) less than Kodak TMax /roll.

Arthurwg · Oct 17, 2025

chuckroast said:
In some cases, it's speculation - working on the Buy High, Sell Higher theory of trading.

There's something to that, especially these days.

DREW WILEY · Oct 17, 2025

Ilford's prices jumped considerably in the US even before tariffs, which is now a further compounding factor.

loccdor · Oct 17, 2025

*laughs in 2013* (rebranded Tri-X $2.79 from Freestyle)

This Bodes Bad Things For Film & Papers

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency