This Bodes Bad Things For Film & Papers

OP
OP

chuckroast

Subscriber
Joined
Jun 2, 2023
Messages
2,867
Location
All Over The Place
Format
Multi Format
koraks said:
And one with a very indirect link to the photographic industry and the long term. I read nothing particularly new or more worrying than what we've been hearing for months years on that page.
Click to expand...

This doesn't seem faster/worse that previous such cycles? I don't track commodities, so I honestly don't know.

For clarity, I should have said it bodes badly for prices of film and paper.
 
Last edited:

koraks

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Nov 29, 2018
Messages
25,658
Location
Europe
Format
Multi Format
chuckroast said:
This doesn't seem faster/worse that previous such cycles?
Click to expand...
I think we need to be clear on what we're looking at in that blog. Here's the 5-year development:

As said, this has been going on for quite some time.

The charts shown in the blog are a bit more ambiguous in their interpretation. Note also that the discussion is very specifically about one aspect of trade (and a very small one at that; note the total assets in these funds, which are...well, tiny), and that the article notes that...
Goldman believes this squeeze will be temporary expecting that within 1-2 weeks we’ll see significant physical inflows from China and the US into LBMA and the curve ultimately eases
Click to expand...

I'd be cautious in drawing any conclusions from this for the photographic industry. Are precious metal prices on the rise? Yes, absolutely. That's nothing new, though.

PS: for some more historical perspective:

It's not unprecedented that silver is skyrocketing. It does this every once in a while, generally for fairly obvious reasons - i.e. increased risk perception in the stock trade and/or general lack of confidence in the economy, resulting in a flight into noble metals.
 
Last edited:

MattKing

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Apr 24, 2005
Messages
54,500
Location
Delta, BC Canada
Format
Medium Format
Unfortunately, the current market discourages use of silver for commercial and industrial purposes, and encourages use of silver as an investment vehicle, better hoarded than put to productive use.
I expect the various other global economic disruptions - including in particular disruptions to the petrochemical supply markets in Europe - probably have as much or more effect on photographic film and paper costs.
 

Greg_E2

Member
Joined
Sep 19, 2025
Messages
48
Location
Usa
Format
Medium Format
Hmmm... I guess I better call my dad, he has a bunch of coins bought as an investment and now looks like a good time to ditch them before the price drops again.

Keep in mind that the price of silver and gold is often artificially manipulated, it could be down to $20 an ounce next month (again).
 

Greg_E2

Member
Joined
Sep 19, 2025
Messages
48
Location
Usa
Format
Medium Format
Not very much, I'd guess less than a gram in an 8x10.
 
OP
OP

chuckroast

Subscriber
Joined
Jun 2, 2023
Messages
2,867
Location
All Over The Place
Format
Multi Format
Alan Edward Klein said:
How much silver is in a roll of 35mm or an 8x10"?
Click to expand...


Silver content of BW film in g/cm2

I've been searching the web for some data on silver content of film to see whether these price rises in film are really justified by the increase in the silver price. Please can someone contribute a figure for the mass of silver bromide in film in g/cm2. I have been using a figure of...
www.photrio.com
 

DREW WILEY

Member
Joined
Jul 14, 2011
Messages
14,677
Format
8x10 Format
To find an analogous case, go back in time to when the Hunt Brothers gained a monopoly over the silver commodity.
Lots of b&w photographers had to stop printing entirely because paper had gotten so expensive. It's pretty nuts already, right now, while the price of silver keeps climbing. Most metal indexes are getting ridiculous, due to irrational tariffs. But precious metals, as a kind of security - gold, platinum, and silver, have really gone over the top. Keep in mind that coaters like Kodak and Ilford have to acquire significant stockpiles of silver ingredients at propitious intervals. They don't make one sheet of film at a time! And at that point back in time, when they were in head to head competition with the Hunt Brothers, they lost. Now they're a far smaller business entity with far less leverage. It's gonna hurt.

Time to pull some of your teeth and sell any gold or silver fillings. That won't work for me, since the cheapo insurance dentists I had to go to probably substituted lead solder instead. It's easier to polish with a Dremel tool.
 
Last edited:

DREW WILEY

Member
Joined
Jul 14, 2011
Messages
14,677
Format
8x10 Format
That's like calculating the cost of a new car bumper according to the amount of raw unprocessed chrome that goes into the plating. Then you also have to factor that bumpers are produced thousands at a time, or not at all, and all of that involves a lot of expensive machinery plus wages.

And because you only scan your shots, you might not be aware of how silver based print papers have themselves risen dramatically in price in recent years, and it's unlikely to get better.
 

Greg_E2

Member
Joined
Sep 19, 2025
Messages
48
Location
Usa
Format
Medium Format
I don't think anyone is claiming that paper or film is only worth the amount of silver present. Of course there are expenses, the coating process is pretty involved, especially since it needs to be done in the dark.
 

DREW WILEY

Member
Joined
Jul 14, 2011
Messages
14,677
Format
8x10 Format
Not much different from economics, which often seems to be done in the dark too.
 

Hassasin

Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2023
Messages
1,607
Location
Hassasstan
Format
Multi Format
Maybe the time has come to find the "windmill" for making light sensitive emulsion.
 

mshchem

Subscriber
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Messages
15,517
Location
Iowa City, Iowa USA
Format
Medium Format
Everything is relative. EK and Ilford have their backs covered. I think Kodak is still manufacturing silver nitrate, they might be sitting on a "gold mine" so to speak, I doubt that these guys are going to be hurt in the near term.

It's always doomsday. No worries.
 

koraks

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Nov 29, 2018
Messages
25,658
Location
Europe
Format
Multi Format
Which is exactly why the cost of the bumper isn't affected very strongly by the cost of the chrome itself, and the cost of the film isn't (shouldn't) be affected very strongly by the cost of the silver alone.

DREW WILEY said:
Not much different from economics, which often seems to be done in the dark too.
Click to expand...
There's a difference between economics being in the dark on something, and someone being in the dark on economics.
 

Alan Johnson

Subscriber
Joined
Nov 16, 2004
Messages
3,340
Demand has exceeded supply since 2022. Production is not very price sensitive, much silver being a by product from the production of other metals.

SILVER SUPPLY & DEMAND - The Silver Institute

The Silver Institute provides leading research on silver supply and demand, including current and yearly data on silver demand, pricing, and production.
silverinstitute.org
 

John Wiegerink

Subscriber
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
3,859
Location
Lake Station, MI
Format
Multi Format
My biggest fear is this will be an "EXCUSE" to raise prices and sometimes even on things not even closely related. You put fear into the consumer and they are already bracing for a price hike. A good example of this was several of our Meijer's Stores gas stations raised the price of gas very shortly (with in a few hours) after the attack on 9/11, for no reason other than fear. Luckily our Attorney General stepped in and Meijer's Corp. ended up paying a big fine. Unfortunately many other retailers and companies got away with it. We'll see what happens I guess. All I know is that being on a now fixed income I might just be pushed to either start hoarding film and paper or just take to the alternative, which is dusting off my hardly used Sony A7RII. God forbid!
 

Arthurwg

Subscriber
Joined
Dec 16, 2005
Messages
2,843
Location
Taos NM
Format
Medium Format
Silver price now about $54/ oz.That's rather expensive. Up from $11 when I started photography. And BTW, gold is also depleted. That's why it's $4400/ oz today.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Menu
Log in
Register