Won't AI allow newcomers to start their own editing sites pretty easily and compete with Adobe and others?
You could prompt it by saying: "Reduce the brightness of the sky and increase contrast in the foliage on the right side. Eliminate all dust spots. etc. Slightly blur the background behind the person. Add a small black border around the picture."
There's two ways AI can and will affect this. The first is by what you said; i.e. integration of AI/LLM technology into the editing suite as such. This is already happening; the kind of prompt you just made can already be given to Copilot, Claude etc. and it will give a re-made image back to you with your specifications. Like @_T_ points out, it will technically not be the original photo anymore, but we have plenty of other threads to address that issue...(so please, let's stick to the question of Photoshop alternatives here and by extension, the ecosystem of photo editing suites, not photographic philosophy/ontology; thanks).
The second is also happening: AI enables smaller teams with less competence than before to build apps, including image editing apps. In the foreseeable future (12-24 months or so) I estimate that it is within reach of an amateur user with a modest budget to have e.g. Claude build an alternative to something like Affinity that maybe not yet covers all of its features, but enough of them to constitute a viable alternative for many users. It's very hard to tell how this may/will affect the landscape. Presently, the codebase is a bit of a bastion; it's complex, takes experience to navigate & modify and thereby represents an encoding of the collective application wisdom of the developers into an implementation. If this codebase becomes more of a flexible sideshow that anyone with a Claude sub can re-generate to their own desire, instead of a crucial asset, the net result may be something like a huge proliferation of 'editing suites' that are tailored to the individual needs of the user. In other words - we may no longer be using Photoshop, Affinity etc. as such, but instead use a self-generated derivative that suits our own needs, where these needs may evolve on a daily and on a job-by-job basis. That horizon seems further away than the 1-2 years I mentioned; in that timeframe I expect the landscape to be dominated mostly by 'indie' alternatives popping up and making a mark on competition in the industry.
To illustrate the second point, please see the several apps and solutions that have been popping up for specific purposes here on Photrio already. We have people coming in who have presented their own negative scan inversion software, web-apps for film and paper calibration, someone posted an interface utility to use old ProPalette film recorders the other day...and surely, there's no end this in sight. Quite the opposite. I think it's a matter of time before we see the first real alternative to a photo editing suite emerge on this forum or Reddit made by a private individual who up to a year ago would not have been capable of producing even a simple desktop app.
