News from the "analog revival"

DeletedAcct1

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Analog revival and...
Ah...
Ilford will increase its prices +6% effective from October 16th...
 

DeletedAcct1

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logan2z said:
Does that include chemistry? That already went up in price by something like 15% in the last few months.
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Officially no, the chemistry should be untouched.
There's a new topic open in Ilford section of the forum.
 

flavio81

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This is very important news.

Thus, i quote it again.
 

pentaxuser

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flavio81 said:
This is very important news.

Thus, i quote it again.
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I fear that this supply not being able to keep up with demand may not be the case everywhere. What is the case with ADOX b&w film may not be the same with Ilford film and paper.

Have we really reached the "promised land " in that despite the reduction in most people's income the film makers cannot keep up with demand for b&w film and for the foreseeable future demand will continue to outstrip supply in llford's case?

If this is really the case then b&w Ilford film and its paper must be one of the few, if not the only products, that bucks the trend in that usually reduced income results in a reduced demand.

The b&w Ilford film and paper buyers for whom a 6% increase makes no difference might not reflect the situation for Ilford film and paper buyers as a whole

Just my thoughts of course

pentaxuser
 

DeletedAcct1

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I think the Ilford case it's the norm and what is happening to Kodak is piloted, that is it's not true that the demand is more than the offer. On the contrary, the offer is intentionally reduced so to put the prices higher and have major profits than the other way around.
I will not undergo such this "blackmail" by any means, and I will buy only from Ilford both the chemistry and films. To me only they deserve to be in the market.
Revival?
What revival???
 
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MattKing

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Alessandro Serrao said:
what is happening to Kodak is piloted, that is it's not true that the demand is more than the offer. On the contrary, the offer is intentionally reduced so to put the prices higher and have major profits than the other way around.
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Kdak Alaris' financial statements are publicly available.
Eastman Kodak's financial statements are publicly available.
Neither are making much profit at all - at least partially because they can't meet the demand for the orders they have, and don't have the capital to easily change that!
 

DeletedAcct1

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If Kodak can't make profit with those prices for films, better think of retiring from the market...
 

MattKing

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Alessandro Serrao said:
If Kodak can't make profit with those prices for films, better think of retiring from the market...
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Depends on which local market you are in - prices are highly dependent on distribution. Where distribution is efficient, Kodak prices are competitive or better.
In Canada, the third party distributors of Kodak products are inefficient. I'm assuming that the same applies to Italy.
 

alanrockwood

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Alessandro Serrao said:
If Kodak can't make profit with those prices for films, better think of retiring from the market...
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Wow! I just looked at the prices for a 100 foot bulk roll of Tri-X at freestyle: $98.99 vs. $79.90 for HP5 vs. $54.95 for fomapan 400. Is Tri-X really worth $19 more than HP5 or $44 more than fomapan 400?
 

DeletedAcct1

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ts1000

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Film as well as Vinyl need to have capabilities that are visible to an average consumer, but yet inaccessible to digital users.
We need more differentiators. And, therefore, we need to be a lot more creative than just optimizing existing analog technologies, for price/mass production.

In terms of 'UX' (User eXperience)
Vinyl offers:
- (1) slowing down and selectivity of what you listen
- (2) artistic imperfection (possibly)
- (3) physical affinity to the recording medium (that creates a feeling of ownership)

Film:
(1), (2), (3) are the same
+ (4) -- single copy uniquiness

Both, of course offer very high quality reproduction, and both suffer loss of quality when copying.
I think we, as consumers, manufactures, and service suppliers -- need to come up with more differentiators as compared to digital.
I think these differentiators exists:

- in customization of the capture medium and reproduction, that reflect artistic inclination
- in projecting the analog medium onto more interesting reproduction devices (rather than paper/screen or speakers/headphones)
- in mixing up the surrounding reality with the source of the analog recording, to produce 'localized' experiences
... I am sure we can come up with more than this....
 

pentaxuser

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alanrockwood said:
Wow! I just looked at the prices for a 100 foot bulk roll of Tri-X at freestyle: $98.99 vs. $79.90 for HP5 vs. $54.95 for fomapan 400. Is Tri-X really worth $19 more than HP5 or $44 more than fomapan 400?
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What would appear to be the case in both the U.S. and U.K. is that Ilford has the edge and an appreciable one in terms of pricing and from this you could argue that a 6% increase for whatever the reasons and with or without a pandemic will not cause it to lose its customers.

However what is more important, I feel, is that customers believe that this increase is clearly pandemic related and justified on that ground and not a sudden revelation on Ilford's part that its prices can be increased simply because it can exploit the price differences it sees in the market place

Any company shutting down as Ilford did for the time it did will have a demand exceeding supply situation for a period at least but long term demand has to be sustained and customers have to believe that its behaviour is justified by circumstances over which it had no control

It may not be damaging for its bottom line if over the next few weeks none of the other companies announce price increases related to the pandemic but it may well cause doubts about its "up front" reputation which might have longer term consequences on its future

pentaxuser
 

MattKing

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alanrockwood said:
Wow! I just looked at the prices for a 100 foot bulk roll of Tri-X at freestyle: $98.99 vs. $79.90 for HP5 vs. $54.95 for fomapan 400. Is Tri-X really worth $19 more than HP5 or $44 more than fomapan 400?
Click to expand...
To me it might, but that isn't the issue.
The distribution is so fragmented that all sorts of pricing is crazy.
Freestyle may actually be a distributor (not simply a retailer) of foma films. And as a result your ability to buy it from a non-internet source may be a lot different than with the Kodak product.
On the other hand, if you want to buy the Kodak product from a local store, you can probably get it, at a much higher price.
Which is the reason they will have to order it for you - because of the higher price, they won't normally stock it.
My local favourite camera store buys some of their Kodak colour film from a supplier to grocery and drug stores - because their minimum order rules are better for the camera store than the specialized film distributors are.
Initially Harman/Ilford had a great distribution deal in the US with Wynit - the result was that Ilford products were often cheaper in the US than in the UK. Then, without warning, Wynit went spectacularly bankrupt, and the very existence of Harman/Ilford was imperiled.
Distribution is a huge and complex problem.
 

Sirius Glass

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And now the "I hate Kodak" chanting to begin. Please run out and cut your nose off.
 

Bormental

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I just looked at EK financial statement and I don't see the revival.

NOTE 13: REVENUE
Disaggregation of Revenue

Film sales, fist 6 months of 2020: $71MM
Film sales, fist 6 months of 2019: $80MM

They don't report photo chemicals separately, but they bundle film+all chemicals together into "Advanced materials and chemicals" division, and it's not pretty:

6 months of 2020: $80MM
6 months of 2019: $100MM

Moreover, looks like the bulk of their revenue is printing services, and it shrank from $347MM for the first 6 months of 2019 to $273MM for the same period in 2020
 

Bormental

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jawarden said:
I don't think comparing pandemic numbers to non-pandemic numbers will tell us much. I'm shocked the pandemic numbers aren't lower actually.
Click to expand...

It's a good point. However, looking at "first 3 months" YoY the numbers aren't much different: $42MM in 2019 and $33MM in 2020. It is unknown how much and when C19 effect took place. I noticed companies citing C19 on their earning calls only starting in Q2, but I'm in a different industry.
 

DeletedAcct1

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That's right. There is NOT a revival.
 

Agulliver

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It is an "I hate Kodak" narrative from Alessandro. We all know, because Henning has made it very clear, that Kodak cannot manufacture enough film to fill demand. In particular colour negative film but also Ektachrome. Additionally, anecdotal evidence from various posters around the world confirms that these films are often out of stock with retailers unable to get hold of it. That's not because Kodak are evil, it's because they didn't anticipate the revival in sales and can no longer make enough for the demand. Fuji also has issues with C200 and NPH400. It's not conjecture, it's not opinion.

Unless you are calling Henning a liar. In which case just say so.

And honestly comparing sales in the first half of 2020 with 2019 when much of the world was economically shut down for months in 2020 and claiming there is no revival is beneath contempt. Film could not be manufactured, or distributed....some consumers couldn't buy because they were in "lockdown" and it was freakin' illegal for them to visit a camera shop and the online distributors hadn't yet sorted their deliveries out in lockdown conditions.....some lost their jobs and/or were temporarily laid off in countries that weren't generous with furlough schemes and couldn't afford to buy film. The whole world economy was phracked in the first half of 2020.
 

Bormental

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@Agulliver Sorry, I wasn't trying to make a claim, I just followed Matt's advice and looked at their statement. I'm sure there's some kind of explanation for selling less film than last year, and "not meeting demand" at the same time. Whatever that explanation is, it must be a non-trivial issue as manufacturing and distribution of high-tech products is complicated. Maybe one of their suppliers got hit with C19 and they can't run at the same capacity as last year.

You can listen to the recording of their earnings call here:
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/fuo9vefw

Requires registration + time commitment, I need to get back to work
 
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