MF hardware price outlook

[Don_ih]

No, I think 35 or so are worth printing, the day I was there it was somewhat overcast, soft lighting even at midday. As I was shooting handheld even with Foma 400 shot at 320 I wanted to keep my shutter speed up, so depth of field was not ideal. In reality I could have done as well with 6X9.

But at least you had the fun of using the Crown Graphic and all that film.

 

[Sirius Glass]

Here is another one, I found a BRAND NEW Rolleiflex 3003 kit in original big silver box in 1996 (baby medium format ). It was $1700. I'd need to sell it for more than $3,132 to break even today.

Planar-S 120mm cost me $1200 in 2001, now would need to get $1,960 to break even. Realistic price around $300 so I'm keeping it. Still works fine in stop-down mode on the 6008 but won't work on the Hy6.
View attachment 306903

Why think about breaking even? Just use them and enjoy them.

 

[ic-racer]

Why think about breaking even?

Not sure, OP asked for comments on price through time.

 

[guangong]

I’m not sure what”breaking even” means when somebody has owned and used something for several decades before selling. The one camera that will have zilch resale value is my unrepairable, unmaintainable Hassy 2000FCM, although I would like to outlive it.
My beautiful 1983 MB 300D is still in mint condition, but I doubt if the selling price could reach the $ I initially paid for it, adjusted or not adjusted for inflation. Still, overall the cheapest car I have ever owned. But I don’t buy cameras, cars, or anything else for investment, but for use.
Having said that, I feel that the prices of all mechanical MF cameras will rise as circuit boards of electronic cameras die, along with attrition from drops and dunks means fewer used cameras available.

 

[Hayek]

Also, two things that should keep the Rollei 6000 system prices in check are that you cannot really adapt the lenses on Sony bodies and you cannot put a digital back on them, but still, some lenses have just disappeared from the market at any price (Distagon 4.0, Xenotar 2.0, Tele-Xenar 150mm and others) and I also saw some "for sale" posts from 2015 where prices where half of what they are now.

What to do? I would be bitter to see the same lens half the price in 12 months, but it would also be bitter to not see the lens for sale at all...

This is incorrect; the 6008 Integral 2 and AF versions can take digital backs (?Leaf) with minor modification.

 

[cptrios]

As plenty of others have said, there's a finite supply and rising demand, so the only place for prices to go is up.

The one thing that will affect that is the availability of film itself. Prices are trending up pretty rapidly, and emulsions are disappearing altogether (especially Fuji). For example, my memory might not be great, but a 5-pack of Portra 400 in 120 has risen from $48 to $65 in just over a year. A 5-pack of Pro Image 100 in 35mm has gone from $25 to $42 - over 50%! If Ilford and Foma suddenly went under, the gear market would likely crash. And how many of us would want to bother at that point anyway?

Still, that's unlikely - the same demand that's driving camera prices up will probably keep film afloat indefinitely. So yeah, if you think you might want to buy a particular thing some time in the next year, you should probably go ahead and move that timeline up. And, of course, enjoy it!

 

[Hayek]

Too much is being made of the rising costs of film. Yes, seemingly excessive and unfortunate but supply chain issues have affected everything in all our lives. Very few out there are film-only shooters and as such, have developed a shooting discipline long ago because of the cost. Kodak film is being manufactured to make the worker’s retirement fund liquid so there’s no incentive to close shop, and in fact they have expanded or reintroduced emulsions where Fujifilm does the Japanese thing of shutting down the line without explanation or outsourcing to Ilford. Lots of deals out there, like late model Leica R8 bodies if you have R lenses as well as an array of Nikons, Olympus and Canons. M film bodies were begging for buyers 8 or 10 years ago but no more. Same for Hasselblad 500 CM

 

[Pieter12]

Kodak film is being manufactured to make the worker’s retirement fund liquid so there’s no incentive to close shop

Pure conjecture. And would you rather break a contract and stiff the workers so you can pay a bit less for that roll of film?

 

[Sirius Glass]

Too much is being made of the rising costs of film. Yes, seemingly excessive and unfortunate but supply chain issues have affected everything in all our lives. Very few out there are film-only shooters and as such, have developed a shooting discipline long ago because of the cost. Kodak film is being manufactured to make the worker’s retirement fund liquid so there’s no incentive to close shop, and in fact they have expanded or reintroduced emulsions where Fujifilm does the Japanese thing of shutting down the line without explanation or outsourcing to Ilford. Lots of deals out there, like late model Leica R8 bodies if you have R lenses as well as an array of Nikons, Olympus and Canons. M film bodies were begging for buyers 8 or 10 years ago but no more. Same for Hasselblad 500 CM

Gas and food price increases are dominating peoples' budgets worldwide.

Ten years ago Hasselblad bodies and 80mm lenses were less than $400US and most of the other lenses were less than $800US. You should have been buying Hasselblad then when I kept posting to to that. At the time I was laughed at. Are you still laughing about that now??

 

[Pieter12]

Gas and food price increases are dominating peoples' budgets worldwide.

Ten years ago Hasselblad bodies and 80mm lenses were less than $400US and most of the other lenses were less than $800US. You should have been buying Hasselblad then when I kept posting to to that. At the time I was laughed at. Are you still laughing about that now??

I am laughing because at this point, I don't feel the need to own a Hasselblad beyond the SWC I already have. Film costs are a bit more concerning, but chemical and paper costs are rising, too. So it goes.

 

[Hayek]

I am laughing because at this point, I don't feel the need to own a Hasselblad beyond the SWC I already have. Film costs are a bit more concerning, but chemical and paper costs are rising, too. So it goes.

Altria was set up to fund the pensions after Kodak’s reorganization and so their fiduciary responsibility is to that task alone. .

 

[Eff64]

I tend to think that as a general trend, analog hardware will just go lower and lower, and also at some point the hipsters with accounts on lomography.com will get tired and put their stashes on ebay.

Based on what? If getting a great deal on MF gear was your goal, buying in 2015 would have been the way to go. Since the beginning of the pandemic, prices have increased tremendously.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but unless people start to worry that film will become hard to get, OR prices make them reluctant to shoot film (in the US right now, a roll of Tri-X 120 is $11, and getting it souped and scanned is about $22, plus the cost to mail it in- $3/frame!) I don’t think you will see prices going lower any time soon.

 

[Sirius Glass]

...​

I tend to think that as a general trend, analog hardware will just go lower and lower, and also at some point the hipsters with accounts on lomography.com will get tired and put their stashes on ebay.

...​

Based on what? If getting a great deal on MF gear was your goal, buying in 2015 would have been the way to go. Since the beginning of the pandemic, prices have increased tremendously.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but unless people start to worry that film will become hard to get, OR prices make them reluctant to shoot film (in the US right now, a roll of Tri-X 120 is $11, and getting it souped and scanned is about $22, plus the cost to mail it in- $3/frame!) I don’t think you will see prices going lower any time soon.

It was based on what he had for breakfast since there are obviously nothing to back up that statement with facts.

 

[Pieter12]

Altria was set up to fund the pensions after Kodak’s reorganization and so their fiduciary responsibility is to that task alone. .

Better than to fund CEO salaries and shareholder returns.

 

[MattKing]

Altria was set up to fund the pensions after Kodak’s reorganization and so their fiduciary responsibility is to that task alone. .

I think you mean Kodak Alaris.
Yes, that entity is owned by the Kodak Limited pension fund, and as its sole shareholder the return on investment from that ownership interest is used to support that fund.
Kodak Limited being the UK subsidiary of Eastman Kodak - its largest subsidiary.
But the fund itself is still worth far more than the Kodak Alaris business - just not quite large enough to completely support the long term funding needs of the pension fund. So the pension fund administrators are using the ROI from Kodak Alaris to try to improve the shortfall.
All UK private pension plans have some government backing. And that government agency has to date approved all the steps taken so far by the pension fund administrators and the management of Kodak Alaris in the interests of improving that ROI. But if an offer came in for the business that was worth more than that projected ROI, it would most likely be accepted very quickly.
One thing that many people overlook is the fact that the majority of employees of Eastman Kodak and its worldwide subsidiaries worked in those parts of its business that were transferred to Kodak Alaris. Effectively, when the Bankruptcy Court approved that transaction, it relieved Eastman Kodak from a large percentage of its legal burdens owed to those employees.
Most Kodak Alaris employees are/were former Kodak employees. And when Kodak Alaris sold the paper and photo-chemical businesses to Sino-Promise Holdings, the former Kodak employees working in those businesses stopped being Kodak Alaris employees and became Sino Promise employees, with similar job responsibilities.

 

[Hayek]

Alas, I meant Alaris.

 

[cptrios]

Gas and food price increases are dominating peoples' budgets worldwide.

Ten years ago Hasselblad bodies and 80mm lenses were less than $400US and most of the other lenses were less than $800US. You should have been buying Hasselblad then when I kept posting to to that. At the time I was laughed at. Are you still laughing about that now??

Why couldn't you have found me and told me this back then? I'd have listened!

It's a shame I didn't get into film until COVID hit. I remember being tempted over and over throughout the years, and distinctly recall almost buying a Mamiya 7 with lens for around $1000 and literally having my hands on a $200 Contax G2/45mm set before deciding against it. Sigh.

 

[flavio81]

As plenty of others have said, there's a finite supply and rising demand, so the only place for prices to go is up.

The one thing that will affect that is the availability of film itself.

You seem to asume that demand will continue rising indefinitely. You assume the demand is based on solid foundations (like, for example, need to transport goods, in the case of demand for oil)

Let me say, from the perspective of somebody who has an instagram account to sell cameras, and whose customers are largely very young, that I believe this market is steered mostly by fads.

Two years ago all my customer wanted SLR cameras like the K1000 and AE-1 and no one, nobody was asking for P&S cameras. Now they're all asking for Point&Shoot cameras, and very few want a SLR.

It's all driven by whoever youtuber or instagram influencer says it's the new stuff now. And I dare to say medium format cameras -specific models- are still going to pass through the fad cycle, their prices will rise, and then drop.

For example nowadays nobody wants cameras like the Mamiya Six or the Fuji GX680. Wait until some influencer "discovers" them!!

 

[flavio81]

Why couldn't you have found me and told me this back then? I'd have listened!

It can be harmful to your financial well being!

 

[Hayek]

You seem to asume that demand will continue rising indefinitely. You assume the demand is based on solid foundations (like, for example, need to transport goods, in the case of demand for oil)

Let me say, from the perspective of somebody who has an instagram account to sell cameras, and whose customers are largely very young, that I believe this market is steered mostly by fads.

Two years ago all my customer wanted SLR cameras like the K1000 and AE-1 and no one, nobody was asking for P&S cameras. Now they're all asking for Point&Shoot cameras, and very few want a SLR.

It's all driven by whoever youtuber or instagram influencer says it's the new stuff now. And I dare to say medium format cameras -specific models- are still going to pass through the fad cycle, their prices will rise, and then drop.

For example nowadays nobody wants cameras like the Mamiya Six or the Fuji GX680. Wait until some influencer "discovers" them!!

Your argument makes sense to a point but in essence, every non-essential item is driven by trends. The P&S fad has been going on far longer than 2 years and hasn't let up either--been following it out of curiosity & the rise of Contax and Olympus P&S hasn't appreciably cooled. I don't ever remember the Canon AE-1 as a 'hot item' nor the Pentax K1000; the latter rarely in demand outside college students taking a photography class. What I have noticed is the inexorable rise of Nikon FM series and recently, the F3. Mamiya 6 has had issues with the collapsible mount for years and the GX680 needs a cart pulled along by a small pony for portability. Fujifilm GF670/CV Bessa 667 are now pushing $4k (and fragile). In contrast to 35mm camera, MF models were never made in large numbers (Hasselblad 500 series excepted) and supply will dwindle, with clean lenses now 25+ years old that will be harder to come by. With the passage of time, that's a factor as limiting as the feared bricking of electronics.

Cannot foresee a major price slump. Dips? Yes.

 

[Sirius Glass]

Your argument makes sense to a point but in essence, every non-essential item is driven by trends. The P&S fad has been going on far longer than 2 years and hasn't let up either--been following out of curiosity the rise of Contax and Olympus P&S and haven't seen a cooling. I don't ever remember the AE-1 as a 'hot item' nor the K1000; the latter rarely in demand outside college students taking a photography class. What I have noticed is the inexorable rise of Nikon FM series and recently, the F3. Mamiya 6 has had issues with the collapsible mount and the GX680 needs a cart and a small pony to lug around. Fujifilm GF670/CV Bessa 667 are now close to $4k (and fragile). Especially with MF never made in large numbers (Hasselblad 500 series excepted) and supply will dwindle. Cannot see a major price slump.

There was a glut of MF equipment between 2000 and 2010 when the professional photographers switched to digital and dumped Hasselblads and Rollei slrs on the market. That was the time to buy. Good supply and many choices.

 

[Hayek]

There was a glut of MF equipment between 2000 and 2010 when the professional photographers switched to digital and dumped Hasselblads and Rollei slrs on the market. That was the time to buy. Good supply and many choices.

Very true but those were the days when the Unwashed Masses were transfixed with the 'magic' of 6MP sensors.
Took a bit of foresight to see otherwise.

 

[flavio81]

Mamiya 6 has had issues with the collapsible mount for years and the GX680 needs a cart pulled along by a small pony for portability. Fujifilm GF670/CV Bessa 667 are now pushing $4k (and fragile). In contrast to 35mm camera, MF models were never made in large numbers (Hasselblad 500 series excepted) and supply will dwindle

Why do you assume MF cameras are rare or not made in large numbers?

Consider a camera like the Canon F-1, which is not a rare camera at all, yet a pro camera. Production figures are 380,000 (1971-1980). source

All the post-war Rolleiflex f2.8 models sum over 175,000 cameras (source)

Post-war Rolleiflex f3.5 sum easily over 400,000 cameras (source)

The Bronica ETR system has sold over 300,000 cameras. Source? They had a "300,000" commemorative model. And this is a relatively "rare" camera compared to cameras like the Mamiya TLR series... You can assume the Mamiya TLR series easily sum one million, maybe more. I can bet there are 4 times the amount of Mamiya TLR cameras out there than Rolleiflexes. Easily.

Your argument makes sense to a point but in essence, every non-essential item is driven by trends. The P&S fad has been going on far longer than 2 years and hasn't let up either--been following it out of curiosity & the rise of Contax and Olympus P&S hasn't appreciably cooled.

Then, we agree.. And I think the P&S fad will end as the cameras break down, because as a camera repairman I tell you, most of those P&S break down quickly and are nigh impossible to repair. I'm already seeing this -- people write me with their broken P&S (mostly ones with autofocus zooms) for repair, cameras that they bought just months ago. Yes, this includes Olympus P&S like the Stylus series.

It's just a matter of time until people realize those are almost disposable cameras. As people did know back in the day.

I don't ever remember the Canon AE-1 as a 'hot item' nor the Pentax K1000; the latter rarely in demand outside college students taking a photography class.

Again, i'm not talking about 20 or 30 years ago, but i'm talking about years 2020-2021 and buying public = people 18-25 years old. Every Canon AE-1 i placed for sale, sold the very same day in a matter of hours. In fact i've a Canon AE-1 that i need to repair before putting it on sale and it already has 3 potential buyers waiting for it. Same for the K1000.

 

[flavio81]

Very true but those were the days when the Unwashed Masses were transfixed with the 'magic' of 6MP sensors.
Took a bit of foresight to see otherwise.

Remember when people said 6MP was "equal" to film?

 

[argentic]

Remember when people said 6MP was "equal" to film?

Yep !