Kodak Files for Bankruptcy Protection 1/18/2012

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Wow, Godwin's law satisfied out of nowhere!

I marked it OT; you didn't have to read it. As for satisfying "Godwin's Law", I wasn't comparing the nazis to anyone, hence Godwin's Law is not invokable here. There's lots of examples of its proper use to be seen on Slashdot. Check it out.

s-a
 

railwayman3

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And on the motion picture side most studios are reviewing all film production due to the risk Kodak presents.

I've seen nothing to substantiate that, but it would seem logical that major users of movie film might already be looking for other sources (presumably there's only Fuji?) if they see any risk to the supply of Kodak film...just as we here at APUG already discuss possible subsititutes or changing to other makes.
 

keithwms

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There is no profit.

That is not quite true in the current context. Kodak is now in chp 11 which means that the liabilities counting against profit are set aside for adjudication.

Simply saying "there is no profit" is akin to saying that someone in bankruptcy doesn't have spending money. It's just not true. Yes, there are enormous legacy costs etc. that Kodak must deal with, but chp 11 gives them an umbrella under which to reorganize and to spin off profitable businesses. Chp 11 allows you to figure out what is and what is not sustainable business. What isn't sustainable gets liquidated, usually making the sustainable parts much stronger.

~~~

I feel like we're running around and around the same mulberry bush and certain people are just not going to be shaken off their misconceptions, and would prefer to bait others. Perhaps it is time to close the discussion.
 

Moopheus

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And start hunting very aggressively for new consumers, while preparing to enter adjacent markets and focus marketing on places where it will pay off. That is a liberal paraphrase of the very successful strategy adopted by the cigarette makers after all-out war was declared on them several decades ago.

So, Kodak should target children and unregulated third-world markets? I'm not sure that's going to work for them.
 

Steve Smith

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I feel like we're running around and around the same mulberry bush and certain people are just not going to be shaken off their misconceptions

There's an easy way to find out what will happen. It just involves a bit of waiting.


Steve.
 

Photo Engineer

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Have you looked at the debt?

Take a look!

BTW, Mellon bank of PA is the repository of the pension fund. IDK how that connects to Mellon of NY.

PE
 

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keithwms

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So, Kodak should target children and unregulated third-world markets? I'm not sure that's going to work for them.

LOL well that'd be a start :smile:

No, what certain tobacco companies did was swallow competitors whole, gaining full market share very quickly and then pool production and management etc. The result is much higher profit per unit sold. Imagine if Coke and Pepsi didn't have to spend money working against each other and you see how it works.

Regarding tobacco advertising, they had to instantly cease almost all trad'l mass advertising and go on word of mouth and mailings. Now that's what I call adverse business climate! I went witha bunch of MBA students and they were blown away by the creativity that we were shown. Yes tobacco also put more emphasis on the less regulated eastern european market, but they also recognized that it's a short term solution and started to push into "adjacent" areas that make good use of the skills they have.
 

Aristophanes

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That is not quite true in the current context. Kodak is now in chp 11 which means that the liabilities counting against profit are set aside for adjudication.

Simply saying "there is no profit" is akin to saying that someone in bankruptcy doesn't have spending money. It's just not true. Yes, there are enormous legacy costs etc. that Kodak must deal with, but chp 11 gives them an umbrella under which to reorganize and to spin off profitable businesses. Chp 11 allows you to figure out what is and what is not sustainable business. What isn't sustainable gets liquidated, usually making the sustainable parts much stronger.

~~~

I feel like we're running around and around the same mulberry bush and certain people are just not going to be shaken off their misconceptions, and would prefer to bait others. Perhaps it is time to close the discussion.

The point is the new investors in the FPEG product lens want to grow their investments. The revenues are in retreat, for over a decade now, and show no sign of slowing, are hampered by the fact there are pretty much no new film or motion picture cameras being made now, the major scanner manufacturers have stopped dedicated 135/120 scanners, and the whole supply chain of affordable local labs is disappearing worldwide.

It's kind of hard to grow revenues under those circumstances. Without revenue growth new investment is going to be very hard to come by. Ch. 11 will likely highlight that problem, not solve it. By the time Ch. 11 is resolved, according to Kodak's goodwill estimates, film will have declined another 15%+ in gross revenues. That will put it closer to the goodwill mark and possibly fall below the cost of sales. So for FPEG it all depends now on how fast Kodak can shrink what it costs to reduce and distribute their film products and services.

If they cannot shrink fast enough, then they have to start selling off non-FPEG assets to make up the cost difference (since Kodak can no long borrow), which would be a violation of creditor rights, like selling the IP brought about creditor concern.

Saying there are profits is like buying an old couch to find nickels in the cushions. It's still a depreciating couch no one wants to sit on anymore. Now the consumer digital stuff may be brand new and looks all shiny in the showroom, but it's long-term prospects are difficult to see. Although in Q3 2011 they made money. Only Yoda knows about consumer printer demand.

I am just stating the facts the financials present. The capacity to salvage Portra, Ektar, Tri-X, and T-Max and the motion picture stuff that holds it all together depends on getting the FPEG line away from the dynamic described above. These are the analog crown jewels of the company, but they risk utter termination if their support structure starts to cost the other side of the balance sheet which the creditors value because film is clearly losing over 10% of its market per annum and the digital products are not. It is highly likely that whoever buys Kodak's FPEG will be looking at a market a further 90% depreciated from its current gross revenues.
 
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keithwms

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So Aristophanes, you don't think Fuji would be interested in acquiring the relevant IP and licenses at bargain-basement prices and using it to solidify their own market base? Do you see my point at all?
 

clayne

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I am just stating the facts the financials present. The capacity to salvage Portra, Ektar, Tri-X, and T-Max and the motion picture stuff that holds it all together depends on getting the FPEG line away from the dynamic described above. These are the analog crown jewels of the company, but they risk utter termination if their support structure starts to cost the other side of the balance sheet which the creditors value because film is clearly losing over 10% of its market per annum and the digital products are not. It is highly likely that whoever buys Kodak's FPEG will be looking at a market a further 90% depreciated from its current gross revenues.

Right because, you know, buying anything that may reduce in potential size or revenue is just a sucker's bet, correct?

Maybe it'll keep going forever until it's use has depreciated negatively, where it's at -50%.

So please, dear Oracle, tell us what film's use curve looks like for the next 2 decades...
 

CGW

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So Aristophanes, you don't think Fuji would be interested in acquiring the relevant IP and licenses at bargain-basement prices and using it to solidify their own market base? Do you see my point at all?

Why would they? Just to keep Kodak's ringside seat warm to watch demand shrivel further?
 

Aristophanes

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So Aristophanes, you don't think Fuji would be interested in acquiring the relevant IP and licenses at bargain-basement prices and using it to solidify their own market base? Do you see my point at all?

I think Fuji's got the same or worse demand problems for film than Kodak, but Fuji's other lines are so profitable, and Fuji is a dominant brand in Japan, they may forge on for awhile, dropping less profitable lines and low volume items (E6). Certainly there's no more capital bing put into their R&D. If their coating systems suffer major failures, they'll hesitate to repair them. It's extremely difficult to put $$$ into a product line where the revenues keep declining. Even if all of Kodak's biz transfers to Fuji, they still face declining demand, especially given the state of film in the motion picture industry.

My understanding (and PE can fill more in on this) is that many of the emulsions and coating systems for Kodak are so complex and tied to even individual engineers and technicians, is that the assets cannot move. That is the coating processes have to stay in Rochester where the remaining mainline plant is. So simply transferring IP appears to be futile. And Fuji is possibly at over-capacity with regards to film product already. Kodak appears to be.

I think a rump film production capacity could be maintained stateside if a small venture capital operation took it over alongside other analog assets. It's a longshot bet. t will depend,I think, on money from the motion picture industry.

Right because, you know, buying anything that may reduce in potential size or revenue is just a sucker's bet, correct?

That's why they have vulture funds. That's what they do.

Maybe it'll keep going forever until it's use has depreciated negatively, where it's at -50%.

Check your math.

So please, dear Oracle, tell us what film's use curve looks like for the next 2 decades...

Likely similar to the market for brand new film cameras.

Or for brand new motion picture cameras:

http://magazine.creativecow.net/article/film-fading-to-black
 

zsas

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Some must already be getting their panties in a bunch. At the Freestyle web site, as of this moment, the following items are not in stock anymore:
Kodak Tri-X 400 24exp
Kodak TMax P3200 36exp
Kodak TMax 400 36exp

I don't know if that means anything, but I have a feeling folks have been buying a lot of film 'just in case'. :smile:

So I just ordered another 50 rolls of Tri-X, and 15 HP5+ too *just in case*... Help! I think my panties are in a bunch.

Mine are way up my arse. The tri-x and Tmax 400 120 I've been buying up for $3.99 a roll with free amazon prime shipping the last year or so is all gone. I think I got last 25 rolls of Tri x yesterday. Glad I loaded up
The freezer before this. Couple of years ago got 83 rolls of 120 plus x from a guy who went digital. $90!
 

Photo Engineer

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Fuji is backed by the Japanese government in a way similar to the bailouts offered here in the US to some of the big companies like GM and etc. I don't think that Japan would let Fuji fail!

Many people at EK know how to make many products. They eliminated tying an individual formula to an individual person years ago when it caused too many problems. The real problem is moving between plants. A Kodak formula would have trouble being made in a Fuji plant. In fact, it took a while to tune a formula between EK plants. And this was in spite of CELS (Committee for Emulsion Lab Standards) which tried to smooth out these differences.

PE
 
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I think Fuji's got the same or worse demand problems for film than Kodak, but Fuji's other lines are so profitable, and Fuji is a dominant brand in Japan, they may forge on for awhile, dropping less profitable lines....

I'm not so sure. The Kinokuniya bookstore here in San Fran carries 2-3 gorgeous Japanese magazines dedicated mostly to older cameras, lenses and film photography. It's niche but it appears to be a big niche based on the quality, thickness and prevalence of these mags. Looks like the intensity of film based photography in Japan vs here is still pretty strong to support such mags. US photo mags are crap.
 

clayne

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clayne

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A Kodak formula would have trouble being made in a Fuji plant.

Semi-related question PE: Has Kodak ever been contracted out by Fuji to make any of their emulsions or vice-versa? I know it may seem absurd but it wouldn't be the first time a competitor has contracted out another competitor for manufacture or supply of something.
 

zsas

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^agree, Apple and Samsung, best friends for chips yet sue each other over phone OS and design
 

Photo Engineer

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Clayne;

No and No.

Kodak has tried to make Fuji emulsions and we have pinpointed the failure points in a Kodak making station but that is about it. Too expensive.

PE
 

Aristophanes

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As much as you'd love to see film die, plenty of us will still continue shooting until the day *we* actually die.

You see, that's the problem.

It's not about you.

It's about film for future gens. It's a valuable cultural resource so we don;t all suffer from single media tunnel vision.

I'll let you get back to your self-centred navel gazing, tongue in cheek, of course.
 

clayne

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You see, that's the problem.

It's not about you.

It's about film for future gens. It's a valuable cultural resource so we don;t all suffer from single media tunnel vision.

I'll let you get back to your self-centred navel gazing, tongue in cheek, of course.

You couldn't be further off the mark about my intentions and desires for film as a medium.

Amazing. So you're now the optimist and I'm the selfish pessimist one here?

Or is your continual referencing of how Kodak is mostly doomed to fail just you "telling it like it is?"
 

Rudeofus

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... are hampered by the fact there are pretty much no new film or motion picture cameras being made now, the major scanner manufacturers have stopped dedicated 135/120 scanners
You have already been shown a number of makers of new cameras, and if you head over to DPUG you'll see that 2 new dedicated scanners for 120 roll film have just been announced. Nikon 120 capable scanners sell for 30-100% more in the use dmarket than they sold for when they were still made.

You love talking about "facts" and how you "uphold the facts" yet you spout nothing but malevolent conjecture at us who you hope don't bother to inform themselves. It really gets boring by now.
It's kind of hard to grow revenues under those circumstances.
As you have tried to ignore for so long, Kodak has made a profit with film during the last 10 years. You love to quote Ron Mowrey in full text whenever something he writes supports your doom&gloom attitude, so you might as well trust him if he writes about the profitability of Kodak's film business.
 
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