Is the digital photo craze dead? DPReview.com shutting down.

[Oldwino]

by 2030 I wonder if people will spend much time at all in actual reality

You're inferring they do now. Have you read the news lately?

 

[Sirius Glass]

I live in reality.

 

[Alan Edward Klein]

"5 billion digital photos are taken every day.
By 2030, around 2.3 trillion photos will be taken annually"

Seems not to be going anywhere, but by 2030 I wonder if people will spend much time at all in actual reality (I am betting on no), at which time photo-taking might collapse because everyone is mostly existing in VR world.

People always want pictures of themselves and family and friends.

 

[Sirius Glass]

People always want pictures of themselves and family and friends.

You evidentally never met some members of my family nor my ex's.

 

[ic-racer]

In the future everyone will have continuous running 'body cams' that they wear as fashion. These will record/save everything. Even the ability to re-create every place you visit in 3D to view later with the virtual reality headset.
Looking at 2D images on an iPhone or even computer screen will be very 'old fashion' soon.

 

[Bronson Dugnutt]

In the future everyone will have continuous running 'body cams' that they wear as fashion. These will record/save everything. Even the ability to re-create every place you visit in 3D to view later with the virtual reality headset.
Looking at 2D images on an iPhone or even computer screen will be very 'old fashion' soon.

Meanwhile, in the cloud....

 

[Alan Edward Klein]

In the future everyone will have continuous running 'body cams' that they wear as fashion. These will record/save everything. Even the ability to re-create every place you visit in 3D to view later with the virtual reality headset.
Looking at 2D images on an iPhone or even computer screen will be very 'old fashion' soon.

Some people I see do that when traveling. You see them walking around with their videos on all the time. Do they watch their entire trip all over again when they get home? How boring.

 

[fdonadio]

Some people I see do that when traveling. You see them walking around with their videos on all the time. Do they watch their entire trip all over again when they get home? How boring.

People generally don’t take pictures or videos as reminders anymore. It’s just to show off to others on social networks. The photos will be forgotten in a couple days and will be a distant past in a couple weeks after taken.

 

[Steven Lee]

In the future everyone will have continuous running 'body cams' that they wear as fashion. These will record/save everything. Even the ability to re-create every place you visit in 3D to view later with the virtual reality headset. Looking at 2D images on an iPhone or even computer screen will be very 'old fashion' soon.

Agree 100% In fact I, suspect it will happen exactly like you're envisioning, sans VR until it shrinks to a normal glasses form factor. I live in a touristy place and get to observe people's behavior on a daily basis. The narcissism runs strong. There's clearly a huge demand to:

1. Record everything
2. Never watch
3. But SHOW to others

 

[Henning Serger]

DPReview.com to close

After nearly 25 years of operation, DPReview will be closing in the near future. This difficult decision is part of the annual operating plan review that our parent company shared earlier this year.

www.dpreview.com

Seems out of the blue.

The bubble of digital camera sales had burst already a decade ago :
Digital compact cameras with built-in lens had its production record already in 2010 with 108.8 million units (based on CIPA data: https://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d_2010.pdf)
Interchangeable lens cameras (DSLR and EVIL cameras) had their production record in 2012 with combined 21.09 million units (again based on CIPA data: https://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d_2012_e.pdf).
The CIPA data is by far the best and most reliable data base available (include all the serious Japanese manufacturers).

Last year only about 8 million digital cameras in total (compact, DSLR and EVIL combined) were produced. So from its top the digital camera market crashed by more than 90% (!!) if you look at the CIPA data.
Honestly it was even much more, more loss, because in the boom time you had numerous Asian electronic manufacturers who offered digital compact cameras, and were not covered by CIPA. Those are all gone now, left that business years ago.

For comparison:
In 1997-1998, so before significant digital camera sales started, about 36 million film cameras were sold (CIPA base: https://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/common/cr400.pdf), plus several million by other manufacturers in other countries not included by CIPA (mainly in China and Europe).
So the current digital camera market is only a fraction in sales numbers compared to former film camera market.
And Fujifilm is selling 8-10 million instax instant film cameras p.a. in the last years. So meanwhile more than the digital camera manufacturers sell combined.

Best regards,
Henning

 

[nmp]

The bubble of digital camera sales had burst already a decade ago :
Digital compact cameras with built-in lens had its production record already in 2010 with 108.8 million units (based on CIPA data: https://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d_2010.pdf)
Interchangeable lens cameras (DSLR and EVIL cameras) had their production record in 2012 with combined 21.09 million units (again based on CIPA data: https://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d_2012_e.pdf).
The CIPA data is by far the best and most reliable data base available (include all the serious Japanese manufacturers).

Last year only about 8 million digital cameras in total (compact, DSLR and EVIL combined) were produced. So from its top the digital camera market crashed by more than 90% (!!) if you look at the CIPA data.
Honestly it was even much more, more loss, because in the boom time you had numerous Asian electronic manufacturers who offered digital compact cameras, and were not covered by CIPA. Those are all gone now, left that business years ago.

For comparison:
In 1997-1998, so before significant digital camera sales started, about 36 million film cameras were sold (CIPA base: https://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/common/cr400.pdf), plus several million by other manufacturers in other countries not included by CIPA (mainly in China and Europe).
So the current digital camera market is only a fraction in sales numbers compared to former film camera market.
And Fujifilm is selling 8-10 million instax instant film cameras p.a. in the last years. So meanwhile more than the digital camera manufacturers sell combined.

Best regards,
Henning

Do mobile phone cameras figure in your figures? Most people do not need separate cameras anymore.

 

[TJones]

Do mobile phone cameras figure in your figures? Most people do not need separate cameras anymore.

None of those figures include phones. Over 1 billion digital cameras integrated into smartphones were sold in 2022.

 

[Henning Serger]

Do mobile phone cameras figure in your figures? Most people do not need separate cameras anymore.

No. The CIPA numbers are about dedicated photo cameras, so main / central use / purpose photography.

And of course the use of smartphones is one major reason especially for the crash in digital compact camera sales (main, but not the only reason).

Best regards,
Henning

 

[nmp]

No. The CIPA numbers are about dedicated photo cameras, so main / central use / purpose photography.

And of course the use of smartphones is one major reason especially for the crash in digital compact camera sales (main, but not the only reason).

Best regards,
Henning

So why do you think steady state new camera purchase do not match those of the film cameras in the 90's? This is not because photographers are moving to film cameras en masse, I don't think. Is it that there are less photographers who are doing "purpose" photography as you put it. Or is it because people just don't need upgrade to new cameras as often as before - most of the advancement is already done. I am on my only third camera in the last 20 years or so. First was a point and shoot, then an APS-C and now just recently a FF DSLR which I believe will be the last one I will own. Perhaps, it is similar to PC's. In the early days, we bought one every 2 years - now I keep one at least for 10 years at a time. Bubble in that case burst long time ago, but it did not mean there was a demise of PCs.

 

[Henning Serger]

So why do you think steady state new camera purchase do not match those of the film cameras in the 90's? This is not because photographers are moving to film cameras en masse, I don't think.

Well, at least several million photographers have started or re-started using film in the last years. That is the reason why film manufacturers had increasing film sales in the range of 5-40% p.a. in the last years (depending on the film type and regional market).
That is also the reason why prices for lots of film cameras exploded in the last years. And if you already have a very good digital camera, and then spent 500, 1000, 1500, 2000 or more bucks on one, two or more film cameras, then you probably won't spent (much) more on another digital camera.

Is it that there are less photographers who are doing "purpose" photography as you put it.

No, the number of dedicated / enthusiast / hobby / serious amateur photographers has not changed that much in the last 20-25 years. It is more-or-less in line with the percentage of global population growth.
Depending on the criteria you are using for that group it has a size of about 30-40 million photographers globally.

Or is it because people just don't need upgrade to new cameras as often as before - most of the advancement is already done.

That is indeed one major reason, and perhaps even the most important one: Market (over)saturation. The market was just massively flooded with digital cameras.
And we have a significant technology abating / ebbing away in the last decade: In a blind test you won't be able to differentiate the pictures from a 24 MP camera of 2012 from the pictures of a 24 MP digital camera of 2023.
I see that permanently by myself: My main used digital camera (Nikon D3s) was introduced in 2009, and has "only" 12 MP. Nevertheless I still use it also for professional work, and no one has ever complained about the picture quality.

So more and more digital photographers are refusing to join the very expensive "digital upgrading rat race", which would cost them lots of money, but won't give enough significant advantages.
If you look at the current massively advertized EVIL (Electronic Viewfinder Interchangeable Lens = mirrorless) cameras, then you see they are equipped with features 99.99% of the serious photographers don't really need (like e.g. 20 or 30 fps.). And these cameras are very expensive.
Therefore also an increasing number of digital photographers avoid buying new, and instead is using the used market if a 'better' camera is really needed.

I am on my only third camera in the last 20 years or so.

And that absolutely makes sense. Clever behaviour .

First was a point and shoot, then an APS-C and now just recently a FF DSLR which I believe will be the last one I will own.

And even if it may break in some years, and repair may perhaps not be possible anymore: Then you always have the possibility to buy the same type used at an attractive price.

Best regards,
Henning

 

[Sirius Glass]

Digital pushed film out of the mainstream.
Cell phones pushed digital out of the mainstream.
Both have exacted a cost.

 

[Pieter12]

Well, at least several million photographers have started or re-started using film in the last years.

Where does that number come from?

And even if it may break in some years, and repair may perhaps not be possible anymore: Then you always have the possibility to buy the same type used at an attractive price.

Speculation. Most likely other cameras of the same of similar vintage will break, too. Unless the damage is accidental, systemic failure--design or manufacturing flaws, limited lifespan of components, etc, chances are you would not necessarily find the same camera in significantly better condition on the used market.

 

[faberryman]

The data I saw on the internet, which I have not vetted but have no reason to doubt, is that 1.81 trillion photographs are taken each year, which works out to 5 billion a day. That number is projected to increase to 2.3 trillion a year in 2030. Of the total, a small percentage (7%) are made with digital cameras. The rest (93%) are taken with phones. The average user has 2100 photographs on his/her phone. Compare that to a lifetime of photographs in your old Aunt Matilda's albums and shoeboxes. The study doesn't identify the number of photographs taken with film cameras. My conclusion is that the "digital photo craze" is not dying, much less dead.

Photo Statistics: How Many Photos are Taken Every Day?

Discover everything you need to know about photo statistics - Number of photos taken daily, number of photos on Google, and much more!

photutorial.com

 

[Henning Serger]

Where does that number come from?

Market research. It is one part of my job. And I am quite good at it . E.g. because of the methods I developed I was able in 2007 to forcast the time span of the film revival exactly. At a time in which (almost) all others were convinced film is dead.

Speculation. Most likely other cameras of the same of similar vintage will break, too. Unless the damage is accidental, systemic failure--design or manufacturing flaws, limited lifespan of components, etc, chances are you would not necessarily find the same camera in significantly better condition on the used market.

No, not at all. It is extremely unlikely that all cameras of a certain type will break. Especially as lots of digital cameras were sold in huge quantities. So it won't be a major problem to find a replacement camera if needed. Also it is not needed to find exactly the same type again:
For example you have used a Nikon D600, and that breaks so fundamentally that it cannot be repaired anymore, you can also look for a Nikon D610, D750 or D780, and you will be totally satiesfied.

Best regards,
Henning

 

[Henning Serger]

The data I saw on the internet, which I have not vetted but have no reason to doubt, is that 1.81 trillion photographs are taken each year, which works out to 5 billion a day. That number is projected to increase to 2.3 trillion a year in 2030. I think an infinitesimal percentage of those photographs are taken with film cameras. I think a larger, but still infinitesimal, percentage are taken with dedicated interchangeable lens digital cameras. The rest are taken with phones. My conclusion is that "digital photo craze" is not dying, much less dead.

Photo Statistics: How Many Photos are Taken Every Day?

Discover everything you need to know about photo statistics - Number of photos taken daily, number of photos on Google, and much more!

photutorial.com

It is of course absolutely correct that the number of digital (snap)shots has exploded over the last years, due to the smartphone. Look e.g. at all the shots of daily food which people are taking and sharing (something I have never understood ).
And in that context and for those people the function of photos has changed: It is not about photography, it is about communication: A shot is integrated in chats like a smiley, as an emphasis to a message in a chat or messenger app.

But that is a different purpose, and different market compared to what we as enthusiast photographers are mainly interested in.

Best regards,
Henning

 

[Sirius Glass]

The last I checked, my film and film cameras are not dead.

 

[Helge]

Well, at least several million photographers have started or re-started using film in the last years. That is the reason why film manufacturers had increasing film sales in the range of 5-40% p.a. in the last years (depending on the film type and regional market).
That is also the reason why prices for lots of film cameras exploded in the last years. And if you already have a very good digital camera, and then spent 500, 1000, 1500, 2000 or more bucks on one, two or more film cameras, then you probably won't spent (much) more on another digital camera.



No, the number of dedicated / enthusiast / hobby / serious amateur photographers has not changed that much in the last 20-25 years. It is more-or-less in line with the percentage of global population growth.
Depending on the criteria you are using for that group it has a size of about 30-40 million photographers globally.



That is indeed one major reason, and perhaps even the most important one: Market (over)saturation. The market was just massively flooded with digital cameras.
And we have a significant technology abating / ebbing away in the last decade: In a blind test you won't be able to differentiate the pictures from a 24 MP camera of 2012 from the pictures of a 24 MP digital camera of 2023.
I see that permanently by myself: My main used digital camera (Nikon D3s) was introduced in 2009, and has "only" 12 MP. Nevertheless I still use it also for professional work, and no one has ever complained about the picture quality.

So more and more digital photographers are refusing to join the very expensive "digital upgrading rat race", which would cost them lots of money, but won't give enough significant advantages.
If you look at the current massively advertized EVIL (Electronic Viewfinder Interchangeable Lens = mirrorless) cameras, then you see they are equipped with features 99.99% of the serious photographers don't really need (like e.g. 20 or 30 fps.). And these cameras are very expensive.
Therefore also an increasing number of digital photographers avoid buying new, and instead is using the used market if a 'better' camera is really needed.



And that absolutely makes sense. Clever behaviour .



And even if it may break in some years, and repair may perhaps not be possible anymore: Then you always have the possibility to buy the same type used at an attractive price.

Best regards,
Henning

Analogue CMOS sensors has most likely plateaued.
High MP (^24MP) cameras has existed for over a decade, yet many new cameras still hover around the 24MP figure.

Sure, you can get to around 50MP, but not for free. Not when looking at the money, but certainly not either when you look at the comparable DR and noise from a coarser sensor.

DR is another area, where digital has made very little real inroads during the last decade.
Most of the alleged progress has really been better software and D/A conversion, to invisibly milk the cow more efficiently.
But the basic CMOS sensor hasn’t changed much.
It’s highly questionable whether we are going to see much of an attempt at that or even trying something completely new, since the enthusiasm is so low, and what is there is deemed good enough.

Look at how relatively stagnant phone cameras has been in image quality. Even there, where there is good money to be made by having the best sensor, things hasn’t changed much WRT basic IQ for a long time.

 

[Sirius Glass]

Although I do not use digital photography, other than my iPhone, I found DPReview.com useful for lens reviews.

 

[faberryman]

Look at how relatively stagnant phone cameras has been in image quality. Even there, where there is good money to be made by having the best sensor, things hasn’t changed much WRT basic IQ for a long time.

The difference in quality of the images taken with my iPhone 6s and my son's iPhone 12 is readily apparently.

 

[Henning Serger]

Analogue CMOS sensors has most likely plateaued.
High MP (^24MP) cameras has existed for over a decade, yet many new cameras still hover around the 24MP figure.

Yes, and there are very good reasons for the fact that 24 MP sensors are still so popular: I have tested 35mm sensors up to 45 MP in my test lab, and 24 MP is definitely the 'sweet-spot', the best compromise of high picture quality, costs and usability / handling (size of data files, processing speed).

Best regards,
Henning