rfshootist said:
It was interesting to see that nobody here wanted to agree to the forecast of some of those "insiders" who say 120 will be in troubles first.
Bertram-
I'll bite...here are my predictions (based on absolutely nothing, and worth what you paid me for them).
I'm guessing that 120 color film will be the first to go, but that will probably take 5-10 years. B&W 120 film will outlast me, but will become a boutique item in about 10-15 years. By boutique item, I mean that no large company will be producing it, and the number of distributors will be very small...in the world of the Internet, probably less than a dozen. Look at J and C for an idea of the type of company I'm talking about. (I'm not worried about backing paper...J and C 100 Pro comes with backing paper that's nothing like the stuff on Kodak or Fuji, but that works fine with a little consideration.)
35mm will disappear as a format (in the same way that 127 disappeared...it'll only be available from a limited set of suppliers at a higher price) before 120 B&W does. Digicams are being purchased in developing countries at higher rates than expected, and the bottom-end digicams are reaching incredibly low price points.
I saw a 2.1MP digicam with no preview screen for - I think - $39 at WalMart recently. It may have been $29, but I'd have to check to be sure and I try to stay away from WalMart as much as possible. The camea, though, is fine for the 4x6 prints that most people are happy with. Add enough built in memory for 36 shots and you have a camera that replaces a 35mm disposable...and the price will head nowhere but down. I expect these types of cameras to completely displace film at the bottom end of the economy, journalists to completely shoot digital (which is virtually true today), and artists to head to larger film sizes. Who does that leave shooting 35mm? Not many.
So, those are my predictions. Worth absolutely nothing, really, as my crystal ball is not functioning properly. Given that film exists within a much larger economy, and number of events could happen to hasten or slow the disappearance of film. But in general, I expect 120 B&W to outlast everything else in 35mm and 120. Given that 120 B&W is one of my favorite things my predictions are most certainly tainted by my desires. Take all of this for what it's worth (less than nothing), but I expect that as long as film is being made then 120 B&W will be available.
Be well.
Dave