What's left an atomic car?
Four dollars a gallon.
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That's quite cool... I've just come back from the Canaries and marveled at the parking lot at the airport of Tenerife South. The whole space is under roofs - imagine being able to recharge your car there during your workday at the airport. I'm sure an array covering the lot would be enough to get everyone home after work.
Even in gloomy Germany, many people have solar arrays on their roofs. Many farmers have their stables covered completely in it. Even our neighbor has one. I sort of agree with the notion that if fuel cost many times what it does now, we'd probably just turn to those energies to power our cars. Up to now, fuel is just too cheap for that I guess.
Antje
You could argue that, given the cost and difficulties with exploration and producing oil, it's actually very inexpensive, even here in the UK at £1.05 / litre for petrol - that's similar to mineral water. And then think of the feedom and convenience the car offers. I think it's good value at this price - honestly.
On the climate issue, there appears to be a lot of evidence of global warming, but very little evidence that we are causing it. At the same time we know for certain that the globe has warmed up and cooled down constantly over the past millions of years. Therfore, on balance, I have difficulty accepting we are to cause, and I think that potentailly global warming is one of the most effective ways to generate tax revenues of all time.
Matt
On the climate issue, there appears to be a lot of evidence of global warming, but very little evidence that we are causing it. At the same time we know for certain that the globe has warmed up and cooled down constantly over the past millions of years. Therfore, on balance, I have difficulty accepting we are to cause, and I think that potentailly global warming is one of the most effective ways to generate tax revenues of all time.
Matt
- Joined
- Nov 16, 2003
- Messages
- 624
Bingo. Many whose political ambitions have not been realized through the ballot box (like Al Gore) still want to impose their miopic view of the world on others through uncoventional means. When he moves into an adobe house heated by solar panels, reads and write by candles and travels by hybrid bicycle or horse I will take him more seriously. His current carbon footprint is about as big as his ego.
It's not the oil prices cause the problem for us it's the corruption... for my 2 cents we will see $5.00 US/gallon in this year sometimes especially California or Hawaii...
Prices are probably higher in Hawaii due to transportation costs.
I know a couple of people, one a geologist the other a geographer who separately have spent the last three decades studing past climate and current conditions. From spending a summer on the top of Elsmere Island studying past glacials and isostactic rebound to winters coring into lake sediments to extract pollen samples. These are the scientists who like a very large majority of those working in the field strongly believe that there is a human element in global climate change. The models indicate that human activity, on top of nature not instead of it, are causing the earth's climate to change, not in absolute change in being the hottest ever but in the rate of change.
I really don't care if a person is on the right of centre or the left of centre, or in the case of American political parties right of centre and even more right of centre, brushing of these scientists who have dedicated their careers to study the past on work on the computer modelling of climate change because of Gore I think is wrong. Al Gore only re-states what the body of scientists state and even if Gore never existed the climate predicition models would be the same as they are today.
Where I live, the entire countryside is being disturbed by oil and gas exploration. The prairies will soon be so fragmented and now the last areas in the foothills and mountains are being assulted, just so we have cheap energy. Even without the probable but not certain climatic change, neither energy producers or consumers are paying for the future losses to our environment. Last fill up I paid 1.16 per liter and the station was less than 10km from a producing well. And people live and raise families near sour gas wells putting them at risk for the sake of non-renewable energy.
I really don't care if a person is on the right of centre or the left of centre, or in the case of American political parties right of centre and even more right of centre, brushing of these scientists who have dedicated their careers to study the past on work on the computer modelling of climate change because of Gore I think is wrong. Al Gore only re-states what the body of scientists state and even if Gore never existed the climate predicition models would be the same as they are today.
Where I live, the entire countryside is being disturbed by oil and gas exploration. The prairies will soon be so fragmented and now the last areas in the foothills and mountains are being assulted, just so we have cheap energy. Even without the probable but not certain climatic change, neither energy producers or consumers are paying for the future losses to our environment. Last fill up I paid 1.16 per liter and the station was less than 10km from a producing well. And people live and raise families near sour gas wells putting them at risk for the sake of non-renewable energy.
I worked in Saudi Arabia during the late 70s and early 80's, and for part of that time shared an office with a group of geologists who were working on a government contract to map all the mineral recourses of that country. I remember very clearly that they said that they had mapped untapped oil reserves in the centre and south of the country that they estimated held at least 200 years of reserves at the then worldwide extraction rate. As far as I know these reserves still have to be tapped. At the time they were much more interested in finding water reserves than of yet more oil.
'Computer models' and 'climate prediction models' are exactly that. They are not proof, and they are definitely not conclusive.
Ole
Moderator
Saudi Arabia is unique in having not only untapped resources, but also reserve production capacity. What they don't have is reserve processing capacity, and neither does anyone else. Producing more crude oil won't help the situation if it can't be (economically) processed.
Estimates of oil reserves do change. Every day we (geologists) learn more of what's down there, we get better methods for estimating reserves, and advances in drilling and production technologies increase the producible reserves even more.
The last oil field I worked on was discarded as "uneconomical" in the 1980's, it is now one of Norways best producing fields - due to improved drilling technology. The one I'm going to tomorrow would still have been uneconomical if there weren't an existing production facility nearby; this, together with the improved production technology, turns a small marginal field into a potential gold mine (if there's anything there, I'll find out tomorrow).
It's the same with everything else in geology and geophysics: as the models get better, the estimates change. But the general trend is still clear, and i for one believe that even if there might be a "non-androgenous" component to global warming, we can't afford to risk not doing all we can to reduce our contribution.
On a purely local scale I live less than 100km from a major oil refinery. The price of gasolise increases the closer you get to it...
Andy
You are right, they are only predictions based on the best data and current knowledge. But do we want to wait 50 years and look back and say yes it was wrong to do nothing instead of doing something? Or since most of us are not going to be around just say that is someone else' problem and they future generations can clean up our mess? It is almost always harder, more expensive and less effective to clean up than to prevent; asbestos, lead PCBs etc and how do we remake wilderness?
I try not to fall into the dogma of saying that with absolute certainly that there is or is not climate change but I am willing to let those who spend their careers in the field to be the experts compared to fiction writers or oil executives. And most likely the cost to us as consumers and taxpayers will not be that great compared to what we already spend on policing, war, corporate tax write offs, fast food, electronic toys etc.
You are right, they are only predictions based on the best data and current knowledge. But do we want to wait 50 years and look back and say yes it was wrong to do nothing instead of doing something? Or since most of us are not going to be around just say that is someone else' problem and they future generations can clean up our mess? It is almost always harder, more expensive and less effective to clean up than to prevent; asbestos, lead PCBs etc and how do we remake wilderness?
I try not to fall into the dogma of saying that with absolute certainly that there is or is not climate change but I am willing to let those who spend their careers in the field to be the experts compared to fiction writers or oil executives. And most likely the cost to us as consumers and taxpayers will not be that great compared to what we already spend on policing, war, corporate tax write offs, fast food, electronic toys etc.
I don't dispute climate change is happening, I dispute that it is anthropogenic, and I dispute that there is anything we can do about it. Better to prepare for any change than throw money down the drain trying to prevent the natural cycle of the Earth's climate. The simple fact is the warming stems from solar activity, hence the same warming on Mars and even Pluto. What should we do to prevent this? Switch off the sun?
Sean
Admin
Is it better to roll the dice and just hope everything turns out ok for our great grand kids, or play it safe AND in the process reduce pollution on a global scale?
Okay, I don't want to get into the political stuff, but here's my question: If we hadn't started the Iraq War back in 2003, do you think the oil price would've stayed much lower?
Ole
Moderator
Yes. A substantial part of the oil price increas is a drop in the value of the US dollar, which seems to have been made worse by the cost of the Iraq war. Furthermore there is a distrust in the market as to how and why the Iraqui oilfields are being brought back into production, which could well account for the rest of the price increase.
From what I've read the drop in the US dollar (due to fiscal policy and the war), a destabalized ME (due to the war) and a rise in demand are the reasons for oil's current price. The war is the root cause for at least 60%.
Ole,
There was not been a concerted international attempt (e.g. by the UN or another such group) to reliably ascertain world oil reservers since the early 1990s. The semi-official reason is that the new-found availlability of oil fields in Central Asia has alleviated supply concerns for the present.
I have two very good friends from my college years who work for the IMF and they will both tell you that if any such study were to provide validation of the "Peak Oil" theory it would touch off a speculative panic that - best case - causes a financial collapse in the developed and developing world and - worst case - leads to a world war among various power blocks to secure the world's oil reserves.
I think a gradual up-trend in oil prices that gives the world time to make the right adjustments is about all we can hope to be granted. With a dramatically-weakening dollar and the speculation that accompanies "currency risk" - I'm not sure we are going to get it.
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I drive a diesel jetta. I routinely get 48-50 mpg on the highway. These seasonal diesel price fluctuations couldn't concern me in the least, I get 550 mile range and can go for months without refueling. On long road trips I typically go 7 hours before refueling.
Having said that, I want an even better deal! So I will pay ~$2k this year to have a conversion done on my lovely little car, equipping it with a tank for grease. Yes, grease. You can take grease (=veggie oil) from McDonald's, run it through a filter, and run a diesel off that, you just have to get the car going on regular diesel and then flip a switch.
Price per gallon for a converted diesel is currently about $1/gallon or so, including filtration. At 50 mpg, that means 500 miles costs $10, not bad. Smells lovely and has no sulfur emissions too.
Having said that, I want an even better deal! So I will pay ~$2k this year to have a conversion done on my lovely little car, equipping it with a tank for grease. Yes, grease. You can take grease (=veggie oil) from McDonald's, run it through a filter, and run a diesel off that, you just have to get the car going on regular diesel and then flip a switch.
Price per gallon for a converted diesel is currently about $1/gallon or so, including filtration. At 50 mpg, that means 500 miles costs $10, not bad. Smells lovely and has no sulfur emissions too.
Get a VW Polo 1.4 TDi Bluemotion. 88 MPG on the motorway, 67 MPG around town.
Somewhat. But with our twin deficits it is logical that, in dollar terms, the price would rise as growth continues overseas. The Iraq War was a catalyst, yes, but near-double-digit GDP growth in China and India (accounting for nearly 3 billion people) was going to lead price increases.
In effect, US-based consumption of many commodities - not just oil - can be expected to be "crowded out" by other nations with much faster growing economies and rising currencies. That can be expected to continue until some of the US "imbalances" are corrected.
That could take a lot of time.
Like they say in Italy "un bel gioco dura poco"...
Tempting. But I like my jettachen, it has some sedan-like comforts.
My brother is looking for a car though, I will tell him about the polo.
Would there be space in the polo for a grease tank, though... I'll have to investigate!
Thanks for the tip.
Given a chance the market would answer with alternatives to current cars. The problem is that an getting a truly safe and miserly car in the US is strangled with red tape. Most of the really good euro cars aren't available here.
There is no good reason why I should not be able to buy a decent affordable street legal electric car for about town in the US. Why can't I? Gee, I wonder who would work hard and has the resources to prevent it?
There is no good reason why I should not be able to buy a decent affordable street legal electric car for about town in the US. Why can't I? Gee, I wonder who would work hard and has the resources to prevent it?
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