richardmellor said:
I question the logic of your business analysis.
Well, since I didn't do anything remotely resembling a business analysis, I have to wonder what you're talking about. All I said was that the last two companies that sold their film cheap through Freestyle ended up in financial trouble, and I hope the same doesn't happend to Foma. In both cases, selling the film cheap was pointed out as a primary reason the companies got into financial trouble...undercutting themselves, as it were. This isn't an analysis...it's just simple history.
richardmellor said:
Efke vs Foma: Foma sells to many distributors in the US; Efke sells to 1. Efke and Foma probably have similar manufacturing costs, as both manufacturers are located in Eastern Europe.
Efke distributes through a single outlet and prices at $3.51 per roll. Arista.edu prices at $1.29 (Foma private label), sells more, produces more, and can keep unit costs lower. APX25 is gone because the number of rolls dropped below a production run. I've heard that Efke and Foma sell for about the same price overseas.apx100 can be purchased for under $2.00 a roll with even higher manufacturing costs . Maybe 1.39 is the price point needed to keep the roll sales at a level that can support a production run.
Ignoring the rule of economies of scale may slowly drive Efke out of production in the long term. By distributing through only one outlet, Efke reduced roll sales .may drop below the volume for a production run .
In order to support your hypothesis, you'll have to come up with proof that Efke is not selling at a high enough rate to keep production up and running. If they are in trouble, it's news to me. To the best of my knowledge Efke is in fine shape. Perhaps John from J&C can give us the scoop on Efke's health. I will say, though, that I shoot a lot of Efke 100 and I definately think it's worth the price. You may not like the fact that J and C got exclusive distribution rights for the film in the US, but before they stepped in you had to order this stuff from overseas and pay high shipping costs. What it sells for in Europe is unimportant to me...what's important to me is how much it costs me to get it to my door. That used to include high shipping costs; now it doesn't. Do I wish it was cheaper? Well, hell, of course I do. But I'm willing to pay the price that's been set, because it's worth it to me.
Your thoughts about $1.39 being the price point that's needed to keep production running (something that's obviously untrue as almost every film in the world sells for more than that, and one of the two examples that was selling at that price last year ended up driving the company to the brink of bankruptcy) seem wishful at best. Search APUG for John's comments on the quality problems with J&C Pro 100 - he basically says that if you want it better you'll have to pay more. Forte sold for that price and almost went bust. Ilford got in trouble selling cheap (not even $1.39 cheap, but cheap).
Now, someone at Foma obviously believes that they can provide film for this price and make a profit. That's fine. Time will tell whether they're right or wrong. I truly do hope that they're right...but I have my doubts. Given that this is my
opinion, and not the result of any formal analysis, you can tell me I'm wrong all you want but you won't change my mind without
proof. Proof will come only with time. If Fomapan is still being sold under the Arista.EDU Ultra brand at this price in two years, then Foma was right. If the film quality goes down, or the price goes up faster than inflation, or Foma goes bust, the Foma was wrong. In the meantime, I'll buy all of the film I can at this price...it's great film and it's a bargain. I certainly don't mind a bargain.