Where do you see Analogue photography in (say) 20 years time ?

Curt · Sep 6, 2014

Ken Nadvornick said:
Predicting the future is an exercise in abstract thinking. It's one of the distinguishing characteristics of intelligent life, including animal intelligence. We all do it. Even you. Even if you don't realize it.

Would you by choice step in front of a fast moving train? No? Well, that's because you can accurately predict the future. Predicting the future is often just a simple exercise in recognizing potential cause and effect. You put on shoes every day, right? Carry a spare tire on long trips? Don't walk into dark alleys carrying fistfuls of cash? Don't run with scissors? (That was your mom was teaching you how to predict the future...)

I have had many wonderful things happen to me in my life precisely because I refused to ignore what was going on around me and, using that information, successfully predicted the future. And I have also avoided many bad things the same way.

Far from pointless, I might associate the refusal to think about the future as something akin to walking down those same railroad tracks wearing a blindfold and earplugs. Sure, you can do it. And it's guaranteed that your future will arrive. But you must be absolutely willing to place the outcome of your future into the hands of that fellow driving the train. And to recognize that his are not, and will never be, your hands.

Analog photography in 20 years? Just apply the same cognitive reasoning to the question that you already do every day for everything else.

All signs point to it being reduced, but still practiced. Both color and b&w. It won't be Kodak or Fuji. It might be Adox and Harman and Ferrania. Or maybe even just Harman. But it will be somebody.

And the cameras? Well, it took 30+ years for me to have my heavily-used (including with a heavy-duty MD2 motor drive) Nikon F2 serviced for the first time. The technician matter-of-factly reported that all of the mechanisms, including the shutter speeds, were still within factory tolerances. And my current favorite camera, a 47-year-old Crown Graphic, looks, feels, and works like brand new.

I think we're good...

Ken

I'll have what he's drinking!

Jaf-Photo · Sep 6, 2014

The thing about predicting the future, is that we've always been bad at it.

If you look at the way people 50 years ago imagined our times would be, they were usually compltely off. The things they thought would be different are the same, and vice versa. Most of us are not taking our personal hovercraft to work in a mile high tower. At the same time, they never predicted the digital revolution or the internet.

But to predict the road ahead for film photography, I would say that the disappearance of colour film will be the most likely risk. Along with the disappearance of the requisite chemicals.

B&W would probably be around in 20 years.

Old-N-Feeble · Sep 6, 2014

In 20 years digital will be so good (and cheap) and film will be so expensive that... we can all guess the outcome. Film users will be vary rare by then.

wiltw · Sep 6, 2014

The obstacles:

Continued availability of variety of film emulsions
Loss of production knowledge
Insufficient volume to sustain manufacturers
Ability to find processing due to water shortages and/or environmental impact concerns about current chemical processes

We are already seeing #1 in action, as struggling companies fight for survival.
We have small efforts like the Impossible Project to sustain instant films, but the variety of emulsion types is reduced, indicative of both #1 and #2 in action.
#3 has already killed Technicolor in the movie industry. Panavision is in threat of its demise. Both due to digital cinema distribution cost advantage.
Kodachrome film and Cibachrome/Ilfochrome color paper and chemistry both went out of production for similar reasons to #4

The sustainability of the home darkroom is a concern, especially as environmental concerns make disposal of processing chemicals the subject of increased attention, even if commercial processing addresses the issue of haphazard chemical disposal via regulations of the industry. It is harder to regulate the home hobbyist, who can carelessly flush the stuff down the toilet, ignoring the toxicity of silver and other chemicals.

The future in 20 years depends upon the ability to overcome the obstacles. Some may be insurmountable (like the deaths of Kodachrome color slide and Cibachrome/Ilfochrome color printing technologies), due to environmental concerns.

ME Super · Sep 8, 2014

Difficult to see the future is. Dark side clouds everything.

Berkeley Mike · Jul 9, 2018

It will have long been considered an Alternative Process. Digital will be embraced by the general population as photography. Nearly all the photographers who learned on film before digital will have passed on and they will not be replenish given the size of the population that exists to replace it.

There is a highly-touted Ilford survey that says 30% of film users are under 35. THAT population is smaller than the over 35 group. The current young population is smaller than the film-taught group and they will lose numbers as people naturally quit over time.

Sirius Glass · Jul 9, 2018

There are five possibilities for me:

I will still be using film.
My printing capabilities will improve.
I will be forced to move from film to digital due to the film, paper and chemical costs and-or availability.
I will lose interest in photography.
I will be dead.

I think that pretty much covers it.

RattyMouse · Jul 9, 2018

Man, I miss Ken.

removed account4 · Jul 9, 2018

in 20 years time i see nodda duma being a millionaire by selling glass plates and cameras
he will also be making optics for the jason lane photographic equipment and plate company.

jtk · Jul 9, 2018

Film will continue to be used for all the same purposes as today, but analog printing will have vanished into the sunset.

How many new enlargers were sold this year? How many new film cameras were sold this year?

Inkjet paper will be even better than it is today (today's Epson Legacy Baryta might still be the benchmark).

Inkjet printers will be better even than Canon's current top models.

Inkjet pigments will be available in several flavors (tonalities), simplifying B&W inkjet to the level of today's silver paper.

Theo Sulphate · Jul 9, 2018

A few B&W and C41 films will still exist, mostly for 35mm and 120. Probably just B&W for large format.

Existing old cameras will continue to function, especially all-mechanical cameras with at most a meter. AF and highly electronic cameras will mostly be non-functioning.

Existing enlargers will be used by a few enthusiasts, just like today. There will be a few papers and developers still around. Home processing and printing will be even more of an artistic niche.

Will there be successors to Sover Wong, Youxin Ye, Harry Fleenor, and Don Goldberg? I really hope so - they and people who repair our equipment play a big part in keeping analog photography alive. Photrio and other forums and blogs also play an important part.

RattyMouse said:
Man, I miss Ken.

I do too.

Nodda Duma · Jul 9, 2018

Similar to now. The film industry has a healthy mix of large, small, and artisan suppliers of the media and accessories... inspite of the big players (Fuji thrashing about now) still adjusting to the bottom falling out of the market a decade ago.

Keep in mind there are more film shooters now than there were before Kodak monopolized the business in the 1880s-1890s.

Jon lol! I’ll still be dirt poor paying off three kids’ worth of college tuition bills. But I do enjoy the thought!

slackercrurster · Jul 9, 2018

Dunno. Does anyone know if things have leveled off for film or is it still in decline? Since this is an old thread we can at least see how the OP's prediction held up for the last few years anyway.

Look at the prices of Super 8 and 16mm film and processing. Very tough on the wallet. I can't afford to shoot it.

mshchem · Jul 9, 2018

Well since this started in 2014, we only have to look out 16 years. I think there will still be film, color and black and white. RA-4 printing ???. I still think there will be plenty of data digital and analog preserved on B&W polyester base archival films. New cameras? Maybe hybrid? Film is amazing. Used in conjuncture with new technologies who knows.

The success of Instax is a sign that people want something tangible to hold in there hand. Maybe slides will come back

DREW WILEY · Jul 9, 2018

In twenty more years I might or might not see anything. There's not much light coming into a sealed box under six feet of dirt!

BradS · Jul 9, 2018

jnanian said:
in 20 years?
i see it part 1870-90 and part now ( kind of like now )

Yup. I sincerely agree. The names will change but the basics will be pretty much as they are now (w.r.t. traditional photography only though....everything else will be different!)

Another possibility...photography will be outlawed and only practiced, "underground and totally off-the-grid" by individuals of great conviction and strength of character. Anybody caught practicing the ancient art/craft of photography will be apprehended, stripped of the few basic rights that remain and chastised, literally, in the old testament sense. This is more likely where we're headed...at least here in the, "make America Great Again!", USofA.

have a nice day!

Berkeley Mike · Jul 10, 2018

Sources on the medium format forum suggest that new medium format camera sales reached about 6000/year extrapolating from LF figures. Both cite a much larger volume of used gear.

And Duma's statement "Keep in mind there are more film shooters now than there were before Kodak monopolized the business in the 1880s-1890s", fails to consider that no good alternatives were available then. Today the use of digital capture is ubiquitous. Another option is instant media which, Fuji says, sold 4-5 million cameras last year.

Arklatexian · Jul 10, 2018

Sirius Glass said:
There are five possibilities for me:

I will still be using film.

My printing capabilities will improve.

I will be forced to move from film to digital due to the film, paper and chemical costs and-or availability.

I will lose interest in photography.

I will be dead.

I think that pretty much covers it.

I too see 5 (will use the word probabilities instead of possibilities). 1. I will be dead. 2. I will be dead. 3.I will be dead. 4. I will be dead. 5. I will be dead. See how nice it is to KNOW where you will be in 20 years. Also I won't be worrying about the shelf-life of things like developer, fixer, and expiration dates on film and paper. All because I don't foresee my expiration date as any where near 117 years........Yes thinking about this makes me so sad that the tears run down my legs. Or is that from another problem that I have?.....Regards!

RalphLambrecht · Jul 10, 2018

Dogus Utkucu said:
Hello everyone,

I don't know if this was ever a discussion in another thread but since I am moving myself towards film these days (even though it is very slowly) I was wondering what is your assumption for the future of analogue photography.
I will make my own assumptions based on whatever I learned so far which is profoundly little so please be patient with me.

I think number of people who shoots film will grow in absolute terms however it will still be declining in percentage due to the increase in population and therefore number of people who owns a camera.
I think types of film will be declining but the brands who survive this will be in a much better shape financially.
Some camera manufacturers will introduce new model(s) of analogue cameras since there will be too much competition in digital and there will be so much junk lying around.

These are a few that I can come up with.

Anyways, what is your idea?

restricted to a few masters of the craft

Poisson Du Jour · Jul 10, 2018

Probably totally digital with direct camera-to-printer technology from wherever we are (available on a few high end cameras presently that can link to a smartphone, but has yet to make an appearance on lower level pro- or consumer-series devices). No 35mm and probably no LF or 120, leaving little option other than the bespoke craft of wet plate collodian and similar processes.

Had the question been posed in 1998 or even 2001, would you have accurately predicted what we have today?

Theo Sulphate · Jul 10, 2018

Poisson Du Jour said:
Probably totally digital with direct camera-to-printer technology from wherever we are (available on a few high end cameras presently that can link to a smartphone, but has yet to make an appearance on lower level pro- or consumer-series devices). ...

Thom Hogan of the byThom website has lamented for a long time how the major camera manufacturers have failed to integrate their cameras into wireless computer connectivity, printing, social media, and the cloud - functions which all smartphones can do.

Poisson Du Jour · Jul 10, 2018

Theo Sulphate said:
Thom Hogan of the byThom website has lamented for a long time how the major camera manufacturers have failed to integrate their cameras into wireless computer connectivity, printing, social media, and the cloud - functions which all smartphones can do.

It is available, just not widely. My Fujifilm X-30 can transfer photographs direct to my Samsung S9 with GPS location (the camera establishes it's own WiFi connectivity, independent of anything nearby) , and start an app that I have authorised, e.g. Instagram. This camera was bought in 2015. I think the marques are careful to avoid duplication with the dizzying march of phone technology , and to keep costs reasonable, though still extravagant in the upper echelons!

David T T · Jul 10, 2018

- fewer films
- better films
- less old film cameras
- drastically less old film cameras that depend on electronics
- expensive or cheaply made new film cameras

However, my RB67 will still be going, and I have a spare working body for insurance. So let Rome burn!

Ste_S · Jul 10, 2018

I think if things continue on the current trajectory, shooting film will be a rich man's game. There'll be less cameras about, which will more expensive as a consequence. Colour will be gone and the remaining niche B&W film companies will be charging a premium for their products. Any labs that are still in existence will also charge a premium.

The film community really needs some new blood with revolutionary thinking to be sustainable. Production of new film and cameras done in a cost effective manor using new technologies to keep prices down.
If that happens I can see film outliving DSLRs and Mirrorless cameras which will become increasingly more niche as phone companies continue to obsolete stand alone digital cameras.

railwayman3 · Jul 10, 2018

I'm fairly confident that analogue will still be active in 20 years time, perhaps much as it is now, at least for B&W.

"Artists" have always used many different materials, and old processes are still used, in painting and fine arts, and in reviving old photographic processes in particular. In the general artists' materials and equipment market, there has been more and more variety of new and old products available in recent years (check any supplier such as "Winsor & Newton" and many others).

Obviously, much will depend on availability of materials at a reasonable price. I'm less confident about color materials due to the complexities of manufacture, but B&W materials are not "too" difficult to produce on a smaller scale.

Where do you see Analogue photography in (say) 20 years time ?

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