When all of the used film cameras are gone...

[Europan]

You are far more knowledgeable about ciné equipment than I am, but I do not understand the need for anything beyond two-perf. Perhaps you are making a clever joke that I don't understand.

No, not at all, we have had some professional cameras brought to the market that can be swapped from four-perf. pulldown to three, for example the Aaton 35 III (factory job) or the Aaton Penelope changeable between three-perf. and two. Many other cameras were altered but rather permanently.

 

[Nodda Duma]

Many of us are aware of that project and are convinced of that being unfounded technically, to say the least. And so far those people did not bring up anything to counter that assumption. But cashed in the money.

And that there are activities of that kind, benign or scam, does only indicate that the initiators see a market, not that there is one.

The demand was there, evidenced by the funding of people wanting the camera. But if the scam is true that example does muddy the waters. However, my point still stands. To say that people are universally motivated in the same manner is ridiculous and, at the base, merely a reflection of self-motivation. Humans are not clones, in spite of the modern group-think fad. There are lot of other examples out there of new products being made to fill a demand. You can find your own.

 

[CMoore]

I disagree on what you think drives someone to participate in a free market, not that there's anything wrong with disagreement. Opinions obviously reflect inner motivation on a topic like this. However, even if I did agree with you, your thought exercise is out of touch with the reality of the analog photography market: You can't compare the current market to that of the 1990s... it's just not a realistic comparison. Perhaps you're just not aware of the type of activity which is actually happening out there Dead Link Removed.

Aware of what.....another Film Camera "Project".?
They never produced a working camera...prototype or otherwise.

 

[AgX]

The demand was there, evidenced by the funding of people wanting the camera.

So far 263 cameras were ordered.

On this order a complete new camera would have to be designed and manufactured. For up to 400Pounds each.

 

[Nodda Duma]

Let's get to the nub of what I'm talking about. Here is a study which investigates the motivation of entrepreneurs starting their own business:

https://ac.els-cdn.com/S11352523127...t=1531825661_636c4016af3208663baa5c100babfb03

Bottom line up front: "Firstly, making money or being one’s own boss does not appear to be sufficient reasons to create a new venture." This indicates that profit does not entirely drive the free market.

Here is another article which looks at it, too. https://foundr.com/21-reasons-to-start-a-business-today/ You can read through it, but they summarize my point: "Different people start businesses for different reasons."

Point being profit is not the sole motivator -- nor it seems the primary motivator -- for entering the free market.

These are not the only articles or research which make this point. There are many others that can be found with a few minutes' research. A market economy -- the real one, not a model or academic concept -- is much more nuanced than being simply profit-driven.

 

[AgX]

Here is a study which investigates the motivation of entrepreneurs starting their own business... Bottom line up front: "Firstly, making money or being one’s own boss does not appear to be sufficient reasons to create a new venture." This indicates that profit does not entirely drive the free market.

Point being profit is not the sole motivator -- nor it seems the primary motivator -- for entering the free market.

Yes, but hardly anyone starts a Kickstarter campaign knowing of a high chance to be left with a substantial loss (as in developtment costs acquired before launching the campaign).
Of course one can argue about such losses, compared to insight and fullfillment gained through such preliminary fase.

 

[Nodda Duma]

Business acumen is not a prerequisite to starting an endeavor. If you're so shortsighted that you can't cover your material costs and labor, then you will simply fail. However, that doesn't mean you're stupid about it -- naive perhaps but not stupid. If you fail once, then your chances of success of are even better the second time around (people learn from mistakes). Regardless, your chances of successfully meeting a demand are better than not trying at all.

The demand for a new film camera is evident by the fact that the investment goal was met. This isn't the only example of a new camera being made. Don't fall into the logic trap of nitpicking a single example.. it is indicative of a trend. There is growing or at least rebounding interest in analog photography and new products are being made even with the secondary market being what it is. This isn't unique to analog photography. Vinyl records is another example (New record players are being produced today even though ebay is full of old turntables). Enough people wanted their music on vinyl, so someone came along and started making them again. Automobile give good examples, too, where used cars far outnumber new models yet there are enough people out there wanting new autos to create a viable market for them.

Full circle back to my original point: If there is a demand, then someone will come along and fill it.

 

[Berkeley Mike]

I will suggest that being an entrepreneur and being an investor are very different things. Further, the demonstrated demand cannot be defined in its depth. Hence, the concern for growth attracting investment.

The automobile model is inappropriate as new models, arguably, have new things that make them attractive. I think about my Triumph: dual SU carbs, 4 speed with no 1st and questionable 2nd gear synchro, 2 valves per cylinder, drum brakes, leaky Girling hydraulics, 68 hp. I have never loved a car as much as that one but what a deathtrap. A contemporary roadster like the Miata, the variety of conveniences and improvements in performance, makes the old Triumph something you drive on Sundays.

 

[BrianShaw]

I will suggest that being an entrepreneur and being an investor are very different things. Further, the demonstrated demand cannot be defined in its depth. Hence, the concern for growth attracting investment.

... and I would add to that: for either entrepreneur or investor being smart versus wise are very different things.

 

[AgX]

The demand for a new film camera is evident by the fact that the investment goal was met.

In this case it showed that 263 people in the whole world are willing to pay about 400Pounds for a new camera with some new features.
That the investment limit is sufficient has been doubted by many of us. (Anyway, their last deadline for production models to be presented is in a few weeks, in September.)

 

[Theo Sulphate]

In this case it showed that 263 people in the whole world are willing to pay about 400Pounds for a new camera with some new features.
That the investment limit is sufficient has been doubted by many of us. (Anyway, their last deadline for production models to be presented is in a few weeks, in September.)

The REFLEX project?

The latest news is that they hope to have something for Photokina, but they won't have any production cameras to send to supporters before the end of this year.

I supported them, with a small amount, not because I wanted a camera with new features, but because I liked the idea of a new film camera being created. Initially, I hoped for a fully mechanical camera, but it became more electronic in design as time progressed. I don't regret supporting them.

 

[Sirius Glass]

To point out the obvious, if we were out taking photographs rather than posting on threads, we would be doing a lot more for the future of film photography.

 

[Berkeley Mike]

Further, the Spanish business study does cite the need to teaching business at the most primary levels, as opposed to workshops or courses.

Also, the cohort that "kicked-in" represents a very small and exclusive sector of camera users. That said, I wonder that this is applicable as a model.

 

[Berkeley Mike]

To point out the obvious, if we were out taking photographs rather than posting on threads, we would be doing a lot more for the future of film photography.

This sort of thing is said, dismissively, in many other threads. " doing a lot more for the future of film photography" was not the purpose of this query. I am not sure that I agree with the thought on future. I build futures in photography and this exchange does much to inform that going forward.

 

[Wallendo]

There are beaucoups of 35mm cameras out there. And the vast majority of them are not serviceable, mostly plastic point-and-shoots. Among more "serious" cameras, there are less popular brands for which service is not readily available. Many of the later electronic film cameras use electronics that are not widely available. The all or mostly mechanical cameras produced bu major manufacturers are generally repairable, but how many of these cameras guys are in their 20's and 30's? How many of the older repair guys have apprentices? At some point there may well be demand for a simple mechanical 35mm camera. The challenge is finding a way to manufacture this inexpensively in small quantities. Hopefully future technology will make this happen, although I suspect it will be less expensive to use electronic shutters in the long run as it would simplify contruction.

 

[Berkeley Mike]

People in the film industry from the President of Fuji to people close to inside sources suggest that 98% of the film shot was color negative. As film crashed from 1 billion rolls, it seems to have settled around that remaining 2% (that's us); around 20 million rolls.

Wallendo suggest that many of the cameras using this film were plastic point & shoots and, I would add, throwaways. Available used cameras might easily have reduced by a similar factor.

For sh*ts and giggles lets assume that, based on a peak of 20,000,000 cameras sold per year in around 2000 to 2003 reducing to less than 100,000 per year. Graphs show a drop of about 20% per year. Crunch those numbers and you get something in the neighborhood of 70,000,000 now-used cameras in that time. Let's assume that there were another 70,000,000 that have survived before that. Total 140,000,000.

IF we apply the 98% figure used in film we get about 3,000,000 used film cameras. I know that this is coarse but even if I am off by 50% the range is 4.5-1.5 million used film cameras.

Next, 3,000,000 divided by 350,000,000 Americans is about 0.0085 cameras per American. California has about 40,000,000 people let's multiply that by 0.085 and we get 342,000 used cameras in California. Using the same method NY has about 170,000 cameras, RI has 9,000, Ohio about a 100,000.

I know that the camera market is world-wide but I cannot find a number that I can use due to demographics. Say that there are 7.6 billion worldwide which for 0.0004 per person. That takes California to about 16,000, NY to 8,000, RI 421, Ohio to 4600. Suffice it to say the numbers have to go down.

I know these numbers are guesses from existing data and industry judgements. Also this assumes that all of these cameras are working. But, now, we aren't thinking about 1 to 2 gazillon or "beaucoup". All of a sudden the idea of a concrete and understandable number is more real. YRMV.

 

[faberryman]

Used film camera inventory is a relevant metric. So is demand for used film camera inventory. I have no guesses as to actual numbers, but my intuition is than inventory exceeds demand, and is likely to remain so.

 

[4season]

Film photography shall remain mostly a niche, but as David Sax points out in The Revenge of Analog, some of these niches can be lucrative (assuming that they can be made to work as scaled-down operations). If it's a non-virtual experience that a person wants, there's no "app for that"!

 

[ReginaldSMith]

You might say it has a certain authenticity.

 

[Theo Sulphate]

...
Next, 3,000,000 divided by 350,000,000 Americans
...

But 350,000,000 Americans don't want film cameras. Maybe only one out of a thousand does. So that's 350,000 people wanting a film camera and 3,000,000 cameras are available according to your stats. That seems more like what we see today.

 

[Berkeley Mike]

3,000,000 cameras is calculated from world-wide data and divided by the World Population to arrive at a representative factor per person, 0.0004. Independent of whether one is a photographer or not, we can know how many used cameras are in an area, a State for example, by multiplying the State population by the factor of .0004. This renders a number of used cameras in the State.

The sole purpose of this calculation was to make a tangible estimate on how many are out there. In the process we found a bit about relative numbers in a locality.

"seems more like what we see today."

While I respect the statement, it is not quantifiable; it is, perhaps, an educated belief. A number can ground us to something tangible and the discussion will have a different aspect. We look at things very differently when we can see the other end of event than when we can't. By seeing a factor, applied to our situation, our skin in the game is greater.

 

[Theo Sulphate]

Ok, I now see your point, which makes sense. Perhaps my view is heavily skewed because I personally know a few people who repair and sell film cameras as their profession.

Anyway, this is what I stated in the other thread:

The supply [ of film cameras ] is finite and decreasing. However, there will always be a supply of old film cameras which I believe exceeds demand. These are cameras such as the Nikon FM, Canon FTb, and others of that era, plus medium format folders, and large format cameras.

The crucial factors for the survival of film photography are (1) the continued production of film and (2) skilled people who can repair cameras and shutters. It is not financially viable now or in the future for any company to produce a film camera with the quality and capabilities of, for example, a Nikon FM. No new film cameras of any significance will ever be introduced again. Just my opinion.

 

[Toyo]

The supply [ of film cameras ] is finite and decreasing. However, there will always be a supply of old film cameras which I believe exceeds demand. These are cameras such as the Nikon FM, Canon FTb, and others of that era, plus medium format folders, and large format cameras.

The crucial factors for the survival of film photography are (1) the continued production of film and (2) skilled people who can repair cameras and shutters. It is not financially viable now or in the future for any company to produce a film camera with the quality and capabilities of, for example, a Nikon FM. No new film cameras of any significance will ever be introduced again. Just my opinion.

The demand for film cameras has been increasing over the last twelve months, and this has seen a commensurate rise in the selling prices for such. From my observations Canon FTb's have doubled in price over that time. Similarly there has been a strangely increased interest in point and shoot 35mm cameras along with strong demand for 35mm rangefinders of all descriptions.
I do agree with your statement that It is not financially viable now or in the future for any company to produce a film camera with the quality and capabilities of, for example, a Nikon FM although, I am led to believe that the Nikon F6 can still be purchased on a made to order basis
I also agree with The crucial factors for the survival of film photography are (1) the continued production of film and (2) skilled people who can repair cameras and shutters.
T

 

[Dismayed]

I'll put this alongside other 'worries', such as the sun consuming all of its fuel and the universe dying an entropy death.

 

[David Brown]

I'll put this alongside other 'worries', such as the sun consuming all of its fuel and the universe dying an entropy death.

Just my opinion.

Sums up this whole thread ...