smart phones in 2021 is what Rolleiflex was in the 60s
Quite a few things wrong with the logic at work, here. Other than Rolleiflex, there were a huge amount of very good quality cameras available for the "serious amateur", so singling out the Rolleiflex as a comparison to the iPhone makes little sense. If you're arguing on the angle of quantity and availability to a large segment of the population, you might as well argue that the iPhone is comparable to all of these cameras.
More problematic is the assumption that people with iPhones use it as serious amateur photographers. That's simply not the case. The large majority of iPhone users use it to take snapshots - selfies, families and friends, tourist stuff. So, in that sense, a better comparison would be with the old "instant cameras" or with the Polaroids. Serious amateurs doing the type of street photography that VM did are a tiny minority, the same way film makers working on iPhones are a tiny minority.
This also makes it doubtful that the next Vivian Maier will be using an iPhone. Not impossible, but not more probable than an Holga, a Nikon D3200 or a cheap Yashica-Mat camera bought on eBay for 125 bucks. There's just no way to know.
And this brings me to another point. Because they all have an iPhone, because vintage cameras of all formats can be had cheap, and because it's now affordable to scan your negs and put them on the web, the younger generation of serious amateur photographer are much more willing to flow from one genre to the other than older photographers are. So you do see more and more a young photographer posting stuff done on an iPhone, on a Pentax 67, on a "toy camera" and on a high-end digital or film camera, all on the same website or Instagram account.
Honestly, comparing eras just makes no sense - speaking here as one who has gone through one too many "Is Crosby better than Gretzky" conversations
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