I wonder how the owner of the site feels about this ongoing thread practically owned by Aristophanes and his never ending call for doom, practically calling out for the death of the site as well?
Since first posting on this thread, I have shot a roll of Tri-X for a magazine article, sold two images for a book and had two meetings with this well funded art center in regards to bringing a darkroom workshop into the fray for at risk kids: http://thirdstreetcenter.net/
I just can't effing believe how ineffective this site is in the promotion of both great images made in the analog medium and being a true champion for getting the word out about film. This is beyond frustrating and because of people like the aforementioned, this site is just not worth being a part of anymore in terms of dialog. I will just come hear like many do, find a quick tech solution, not post and just get out and make great photographs happen, regardless of medium.
The way I understand you should thank APUG for all the technical answers that put money in your pocket rather than bashing this forum. As someone said main scope of APUG is not to promote film. Have you considered becoming a subscriber for APUG so you can actually feel that you contribute to the film community or it is just taking advantage?Originally Posted by PKM-25
I will just come hear like many do, find a quick tech solution, not post and just get out and make great photographs happen, regardless of medium.
Why would there suddenly be a question mark? At the moment photographic film seems to have stabilized at a low level while movie film is in steep decline. Kodaks film unit has been mostly profitable throughout the last ten years, while their digital branch wasted money quarter after quarter.1) Olympus' scandal has little impact on a high-growth industry. Others can step in. Kodak's demise puts a giant question market on exactly how much demand there is for film of any kind, especially in the long term.
So which other major power company went bust shortly after the Enron thing or as a consequence thereof? No reasonable investor thinks photographic film has a huge growth potential right now, so the demise of Kodak won't even create shock waves like Lehman or Enron. I just don't see that bunch of investors scratching their head "we would have never thought this digital fad would catch on" ...2) Enron did blow up the power market. Certainly in California. I am a bond analyst. That was downright ugly, and the lawsuits are still ongoing at enormous cost to all ratepayers in many states. Enron's demise and lack of diligence all around exacted a huge toll on consumers, and still does.
3) Kodak going south means that extending credit to all other film suppliers becomes an issue because the central point is the enormous erosion of demand for emulsion products worldwide. Instead of credit and financing being offered mostly on the financials of the supplier, analysts will be looking at the underlying customer base of the product. This could apply to the company making parts for Fuji processing machines to suppliers of emulsion chemicals to distribution wholesalers. If Kodak has to pay cash up front to get its film products on the shelf, then that could very well spread to everyone in the market.
Cutting film to rolls is trivial compared to proper coating. You should rephrase this as "4) Yes, the whole question about the survival of coated film stock will reside with the ability to manage small volumes with adequate QC." And while it is quite popular here to rag on Foma/Adox/Efke here in this forum, a lot of people seem to be happy with their products, especially in larger formats. In a few years a lot of Kodak's film patents are due to expire so we could suddenly see a hike in film performance from former low cost vendors.4) Yes, the whole question about the survival of roll and cartridge film will reside with the ability to manage small volumes with adequate QC.
If you want to beat the market consistently you will have to separate the wheat from the chaff. Omnidirectional doom&gloom panic in the face of a little risk won't do much good.5) Doom and gloom is a function of economics and business. Where there's risk, there's doom.
Unlike digital cameras, you don't have to buy a new analog camera every two or three years, so analog camera sales are a lot less relevant to film sales than you make it look. I own and use three analog cameras right now, none of them was bought new. I bought my last new camera 25 years ago, yet I still go through a lot of film every year.6) My major concern when looking at film production and the transfer of assets to someone other than Kodak is the entropy in the camera market. Basically any takeover of the Kodak's operations is like taking over a car part manufacturer for 1980's vehicles. This applies to Ilford as well as Fuji. At a certain point--when it is not known--the suppliers of credit and financing are going to ask where the new customers are, and where they are getting their equipment to load your emulsion product in. Like all creditors they may need more certainty that eBay sales volumes and flea markets. No supply of cameras could lead to a contraction ins the supply of credit and operational funds for film manufacturers. Prices rise, more customer leave as a result, and so on. That's the threat.
I just can't effing believe how ineffective this site is in the promotion of both great images made in the analog medium and being a true champion for getting the word out about film. This is beyond frustrating and because of people like the aforementioned, this site is just not worth being a part of anymore in terms of dialog. I will just come hear like many do, find a quick tech solution, not post and just get out and make great photographs happen, regardless of medium.
I see no documentation that film is profitable for Kodak, nor has been for the last 5 years. Their financials statements all say otherwise, as does the demolition of the facilities as they race to downsize. I see no signs of stabilization, just decline.
Well, here's hoping Ian's right!
PE has commented extensively on the profitability, and he suggests money was shifted from the film division to the money losing digital branch to lower the overall tax burden. Tearing down excess facilities only means the market has declined, not that the remaining part loses money. And I have to remind you again: the current decline in film sales at Kodak comes from movie film, not photographic still film. Movie film, especially print film might well go away in the next few years, I don't know. The question is, whether one can make only color photographic film at the current volumes profitably. But still: Ilford, Foma, Adox and Efke couldn't care less about movie print film sales.I see no documentation that film is profitable for Kodak, nor has been for the last 5 years. Their financials statements all say otherwise, as does the demolition of the facilities as they race to downsize. I see no signs of stabilization, just decline.
Well, technically they could have used the excess money from their film branch to fund a proper downscale of their operations. As people here have already said, stock holders would have revolted against this because it would have devalued their stock. Well, look where this got them ....Real asset destruction is a loss of money and capital. Always. the decline of film sales is what killed Kodak on the balance sheet. There was no way management could have stopped that trend. What they did botch was management of their original digital lead.
And photographic film is the only uncertain market right now ....Investors and creditors of emulsion production will be afraid to our good money after bad, especially where there is consumer market uncertainty.
If the APUG forum is any indication, I'd say the vast majority of current analog shooters use mostly B&W. Ilford won't be harmed but rather see a boost if former users of Kodak's color offerings pour into the B&W market. If Kodak completely stops making B&W film, Ilford makes a close enough match for every Kodak B&W film (PlusX/FP4, TriX/HP5, TMax/Delta).If colour film goes away, a lot of analog shooters will too. That will impact B&W sales from any source. A smaller aggregate market will increase prices substantially. This bodes poorly for a very small player like Ilford.
The near throwaway models have been thrown away by now or are (not) sold to collectors for 1$ a piece. Even photographic doofuses like me own high end professional cameras which would have been completely out of reach pipe dreams just 10 years ago, and these cameras will most likely be serviceable for decades to come.You don't have to buy a new digital camera either. That's your version of doom and gloom. There are certain economic advantages to digital in that every shot after original purchase gets less expensive and with analog it gets more expensive. And the dominant history of film cameras is of near-throwaway models. Refinancing Kodak's emulsion facilities for a market using 20 year-old cameras bought and sold off auction sites is going to raise question marks by anyone financing the Kodak leftovers. The credit will be short term, very expensive, and collateralized. That's a tough sell.
That bus hitting me might put a small dent in the film/chem/paper sales in my town but it's not going to put anyone out of business. Investors do see customers for Fuji, Ilford, Foma, Efke, Adox and others. If Kodak really goes away and if its product line gets chucked, I'd be somewhat afraid for color film, but B&W would rather thrive than wither.*You* may go through a lot of film, but the market may require more proof that if you get hit by a bus there's someone to fill your shoes. Investors need to see the customer not yet on the horizon. A declining overall demand and no means to stabilize demand with new products (Lomo gets it correct) is the problem, both for analog film and MP film.
My mistake ... thought I was on APUG, but obviously stumbled onto the cell-phone-camera forum.
Just where do you think commercial display photography is going to come from if high-end output options are going extinct? And just how many times do you think studios are going to amortize new
equipment outlays every five years? Right now I'm about to coach a studio photographer in large
format FILM use because he can't deliver competitive quality digitally. And believe me, this ain't the
flat part of the earth - I'm right smack dab in the heart of the tech empire, and I grew up right smack on the second deepest canyon on the continent. Flatlander I'm not. You'd be amazed at how
many Silicon Valley types on the trail ask to look under my darkcloth and with they had darkrooms
of their own. They guys who invent this stuff still know the difference, even if some of the moles
inflitrating this forum don't. Change is inevitable, but everything digital will change too, and probably
a lot faster. We'll see what goes extinct first.
People apparently get by profitably with this kind of work, too. What does it prove, though?Funny how the ad/editorial world seems to be getting along without film. People I'm acquainted are getting by nicely(i.e., profitably)without it.
How often are you going to retry writing this? It just got deleted before ....Think you're suffering a wee bit of hypoxemia under that dark cloth.
People apparently get by profitably with this kind of work, too.
People apparently get by profitably with this kind of work, too. What does it prove, though?
People apparently get by profitably with this kind of work, too. What does it prove, though?
How often are you going to retry writing this? It just got deleted before ....
Ive used Efke and gotten very good results with it. By outdated, do you mean old fashioned emulsion technology? Because the film didn't exhibit any of the other signs of out dated. There are still a few photogrphers around who say Kodak Super Double X was the best film ever made. Personally I like Efke better than Ilford films....because the quality stinks. And it's old outdated stuff.
I think a thread entitled "The end for Kodak" is not going to be a source of positive promotion for analog film any way you spin it. If you don't like to hear analyses about the impact Kodak's impending bankruptcy may have on the film industry, then don't read it.
And not once have I called for the "death of the site [APUG]". In fact, I clearly laid out a market space business case for the continuance of film as an alternative medium to the dominance of digital. In order to support what may come out of the impending, ultimate Kodak moment, it helps to have some reflective criticism of what led to film's rapid demise in the eyes of the public as the medium of choice and not make those errors again.
The title was 'Is this the end for Kodak?' and, thus, it doesn't carry he meaning you have inferred.
Please don't misquote me.
Jerry Lebens
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