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That's one heck of a pull . . .

This is a really good way to describe things. IMHO, in these exposure discussions not nearly enough attention is paid to the middle.
 
That graph is just a model, but the empiric data depend on a lot of variables. For example, my Nikon with state-of-the-art Matrix Metering has a narrow probability curve, such that the safety factor for a 2% to 5% under-exposure rate is around (0.5 Stops). That really is 'space-age' technology; I shoot almost everything on "Auto" with those cameras.

That is in strong contrast to my results from large format photography. In that case the bell curve is wider. Likely due to errors in spot readings (flare, accuracy of the spot), low zone determination (is that 2 or 3?), shutter speed variability (20 year old Copals, etc), aperture setting (no detents on any shutter), bellows factors, film age speed depression, etc. In that case my safety factor is around (1.3 Stops).

So, even though I have all the testing equipment, I'm NOT the guy that tests and records exact shutter speeds on all 20 shutters, does in-house ISO determination on every box of sheet film, carries a ruler to set bellows factor for every shot less than infinity focus, uses a ground-glass exposure meter calibrated by the factory on a bi-annual basis, etc.

Am I sloppy? I don't think so, I think I'm smart enough to know what I can get away with.
 
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Cool graphs. The images in the article the tones-to-whites seem to be blocked-up. As far as the article either the images suffer from publication issues (mags/books copied or digital artifacts.) That's what happens when you over expose. I see people liking the result. I just don't get it.