A incident meter can work, but it's a ballpark solution - you have to take into account the reflectivity of the surfaces being lit. A flash spot meter would give you much more precision.
I'm thinking back to the commercial film days, where we used a lot of polaroid on set, for every format from 35 to 8x10. Hey, that stuff was expensive and generated a ton of goopy toxic trash, and I (and many others) prided ourselves on not just running sheet after sheet of polaroid during setup.
Even so, after years of client shooting, there was always a surprise. Hard kicker light for hair and cheekbones, holding some shadow detail, or getting a pure white cyc background... they all took tweaks based on the subject, props, setting, etc. I did find that spot metering was often pretty essential before the first 'roid. Even if it was just a 200mm lens on an SLR set to "spot".