Thanks for pointing out this article, seems like a potentially interesting read, although I still need to get through it.
Price of silver continues to climb to extraordinary levels
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Thanks for pointing out this article, seems like a potentially interesting read, although I still need to get through it.
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Based on the current price of silver (about $1 per gram) and the amount of surface area in a roll of 35mm film (I estimate about 0.055 square meter) and about 6.5 grams of silver per square meter (midpoint of the estimates given in earlier post) I estimate a roll of film contains about $0.36 worth of silver. This represents something like a $0.14 increase over the previous year average price, and perhaps a $0.18 increase over the five year average. If we assume that the markup over the cost of raw materials is perhaps threefold (please supply a better number if you have one) then one might expect the cost of film to increase by about $0.50 per roll. If the markup is six fold then one might expect an increase of about $1 per roll.
However, Kodak and the other film producers have probably hedged the commodity price in order to allow them a predictable cost of manufacturing. This may somewhat buffer the price increase, at least in the short term. Therefore, if the price increase does not last too long we might not see quite such a large increase in film prices, but who knows for sure? Nobody.
However, Kodak and the other film producers have probably hedged the commodity price in order to allow them a predictable cost of manufacturing. This may somewhat buffer the price increase, at least in the short term. Therefore, if the price increase does not last too long we might not see quite such a large increase in film prices, but who knows for sure? Nobody.
Driving some of the wild commodity prices is the short-term prospect of a spike in inflation. The quantitative easing (QE) policy runs the very serious risk of overshooting the desired stimulative effect, which leads to rapid decline in the value of the USD and hence a big spike in the commodities traditionally valued in USD... oil etc. Now... since QE2 we've not seen much sign of inflation at all and oil is rising but in a gradual and predicted way. Yet certain commodities are being priced even further beyond reason. So this begs the question, who really believes these commodity prices will hold?
Buy land not precious metals, that would be my investment advice! At least you can put up a tent on it
Actually I would invest in rare earth minerals, they are required for all electronic devices made today and China has a hammer lock on supply and they have been difficult in terms of supplying other countries.
As for property investment, until the boomers all shuffle off this mortal coil, I'll be loathe to invest in land.
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This could be a bubble like gold and the housing market. The spike in silver prices can make used fixer desirable like used cooking grease with those Biodiesel cookers. Trash turns into treasure.
I haven't read all of the thousands of posts (my page said that there have been 8717 new posts since I last showed up here). But, I have to say that from what I've read. the price is not going down unless gold does. Someone, somewhere, decided that the price of gold isn't too high; the price of silver is too low, and needs to be linked to gold so that they rise and fall together. It's absolute bullshit, but that's the market for ya. The market is a herd of sheep driven by a pack of squirrels.
Of course this is really bad news, but I guess it will test our attachments and show how committed we are. Are you willing to draw on dried animal skins with burnt sticks? If not, why did you get into this thing anyway? Photography just made drawing different, not even easier. Just different.
I bought a French easel last year, and I'm glad I did. What will I do with my darkroom? Should I convert it back to a contractor's trailer? With plumbing and wiring? That ought to be worth something to somebody.
When I barbeque chickens in the summertime, I wrap grape vine clippings in aluminum foil (several layers) and put them in the coals. Makes the greatest drawing charcoal!
Now that I have been forced to think about this: Back in the 1970's I could buy a box of 100 sheets of SW Agfa Brovira for about $12. When the Hunt bros. cornered the silver market, that same box went up to about $30, if I recall correctly. That was a lot of money in those days. When the Feds forced the Hunts to divest, through anti-trust action, the price of Ag returned to normal (about $5-$6/Troy Oz. at the time), the price of that box of paper dropped to about $22. I have boxes with stickers on them to prove this, should the need arise. Well, actually, the later ones are DW, but I think you probably get the point.
Photography - silver photography - IS commodity, and we aren't going to escape it. Unless...
Of course this is really bad news, but I guess it will test our attachments and show how committed we are. Are you willing to draw on dried animal skins with burnt sticks? If not, why did you get into this thing anyway? Photography just made drawing different, not even easier. Just different.
I bought a French easel last year, and I'm glad I did. What will I do with my darkroom? Should I convert it back to a contractor's trailer? With plumbing and wiring? That ought to be worth something to somebody.
When I barbeque chickens in the summertime, I wrap grape vine clippings in aluminum foil (several layers) and put them in the coals. Makes the greatest drawing charcoal!
Now that I have been forced to think about this: Back in the 1970's I could buy a box of 100 sheets of SW Agfa Brovira for about $12. When the Hunt bros. cornered the silver market, that same box went up to about $30, if I recall correctly. That was a lot of money in those days. When the Feds forced the Hunts to divest, through anti-trust action, the price of Ag returned to normal (about $5-$6/Troy Oz. at the time), the price of that box of paper dropped to about $22. I have boxes with stickers on them to prove this, should the need arise. Well, actually, the later ones are DW, but I think you probably get the point.
Photography - silver photography - IS commodity, and we aren't going to escape it. Unless...
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Screw this. Let the survivalists hoard gold, ammo and food. I'm gonna hoard musket balls and silver-halide film!
There. That'll show 'em. All ya'll out there envy me when the end comes!
I also have been interested in industrial precious metals, mostly because of the battery industry. But we'll have to see where fuel price go. If oil tops $100, there will be much more interest in battery technology again. Then platinum etc. should follow suit.
As for real estate, well the situation varies a lot from place to place, of course. But where I sit right now, land looks like a screaming bargain. N.b. I wrote land, not mcmansions.
Silver... I am skeptical. I agree with what others have said; invest in film while you can. May not be a bad time to buy some Pt/Pd materials too, they may soon be priced beyond all reason.
More bad news:
http://www.vancouversun.com/Miners+cling+their+sizzling+silver+streams/4504359/story.html
I guess it wouldn't be bad if you were selling silver......
http://www.vancouversun.com/Miners+cling+their+sizzling+silver+streams/4504359/story.html
I guess it wouldn't be bad if you were selling silver......
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Thank you for the information! I started reading the thread and the biggest question I had was how much silver are in film. IIRC Delta and TMax use less silver than traditional film.
Three years ago I was buying 10 rolls packs of Ilford HP5+, FP4+ and Pan F+ for somethink like 16-17 pounds per pack, VAT included.
The rapacious Hunt brothers forced the price of silver very briefly up to $50 an ounce. Photographers and many investers suffered greatly because of this. With the increasing cost of silver and the decreasing demand for silver based photo products, we can expect little relief if the price of silver drops. However, for most of us, the cost of film is a small fraction of the total cost of photography as a business or hobby.
About the time the Hunt's started in on the silver market, I had just fallen in love with Unicolor Exhibition B&W paper (Mitsubishi?) and gotten a Yashica FR, entirely dependent on a PX-28 silver oxide battery. Not fun.
You can use a PX 28L Lithium battery, and they last a lot longer.
I remember about thirty odd years ago The Bunker/ Hunt Brothers cornered the market for
silver, and the price of photographic materials doubling over night, I wonder what the connection is with this article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Bunker_Hunt ( look at Silver Thursday), and what the relationship is with the current Hunt brothers, if you read through the article the Hunt brothers were eventually charged by the US Government with conspiracy, and they eventually filed for bankruptcy.
silver, and the price of photographic materials doubling over night, I wonder what the connection is with this article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Bunker_Hunt ( look at Silver Thursday), and what the relationship is with the current Hunt brothers, if you read through the article the Hunt brothers were eventually charged by the US Government with conspiracy, and they eventually filed for bankruptcy.
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Do you really think that this is true for most of us? When thinking about the numbers, I am almost certain that over the years I have spent at least twice as much on film as I have on equipment...and I have a decent amount of junk (though none of it too pricey) and have gone through periods in which I don't shoot a whole ton of film (like now – too busy). If you see film as a small fraction of the total cost of photography as a business or hobby, what costs do you see as being a large fraction?
For me film and paper and chems or processing are the largest costs, in that order.
Anyway I'd be curious to know what are the big cost drivers for film, if not silver.... my guess there is a better correlation with oil price than anything else. Film is, ultimately, a petrochemical product.
Anyway I'd be curious to know what are the big cost drivers for film, if not silver.... my guess there is a better correlation with oil price than anything else. Film is, ultimately, a petrochemical product.
The real risk is not whether photographic film gets more expensive for us but whether the high film prices convince more movie theaters to switch to digital projection. Read PhotoEngineers postings, where most of Kodaks film production output goes to, and if that market collapses under high prices, color film may well be gone.
I am (fairly) sure the Chinese market will keep it alive for a good long while though.
keithwms said:
I don't think this is correct. I think the places where film did not already have very high penetration are more likely to skip straight to digital. Without a history of film, the price point due digital (no recurring expenses like new film) will become a selling point.
That's not what I have read, Michael. We think of China as being this fairly modern place in which everybody has access to new technology, but there is massive inequity in salary and buying power there (sorry Mao!). Places we see on the telly, places like Hong Kong and Shanghai, are really not representative of the conditions of the vast majority of the population. I don't recall the article but there was a forecast that it'd take at least a decade for China to go digital.
Anyway, friends like Per Volquartz have gone to China many times and found a solid base of support for analogue. You can get beautiful LF cameras made for a song ( I adore my shen 5x8 back which cost all of $200). I haven't been to China yet; I would absolutely love to before we turn it into what we have become, but I seriously doubt that I'll see a lot of DSLRs slung around the necks of the youth like you do here.
Ultimately the demise of the consumer film market will be no big deal. It'll be a shame, but it will make what some of us do even more exotic and unique. I think we analoguers will see the value of handcraft go up... way up... in the coming years. Some will bemoan the extra work it takes to use homebrew chemistry to makes purely handcrafted images, but we have to remember that value, whether you define it in terms of the experience of the craft or the selling price of the print, is going up not down.
Anyway, friends like Per Volquartz have gone to China many times and found a solid base of support for analogue. You can get beautiful LF cameras made for a song ( I adore my shen 5x8 back which cost all of $200). I haven't been to China yet; I would absolutely love to before we turn it into what we have become, but I seriously doubt that I'll see a lot of DSLRs slung around the necks of the youth like you do here.
Ultimately the demise of the consumer film market will be no big deal. It'll be a shame, but it will make what some of us do even more exotic and unique. I think we analoguers will see the value of handcraft go up... way up... in the coming years. Some will bemoan the extra work it takes to use homebrew chemistry to makes purely handcrafted images, but we have to remember that value, whether you define it in terms of the experience of the craft or the selling price of the print, is going up not down.
China was and remains a huge market for digital kiosks due to the fact that many people have no phones or computers. So, they send each other pictures from a CD that may be analog but recently has been becoming more and more digital. Kodak had a very large network of kiosks in "communication centers" where families could come to pick up photos from other parts of their families in other cities. IDK what this means for digital or analog, but it seems to me that the market model for China is vastly different than that of the US.
On another tack, the market for cameras in Muslim countries is different yet again. There, women are not generally allowed to handle or use cameras and in some cases are not allowed to be photographed.
So, no single model can be used anywhere in the world for what might happen to the analog market.
PE
On another tack, the market for cameras in Muslim countries is different yet again. There, women are not generally allowed to handle or use cameras and in some cases are not allowed to be photographed.
So, no single model can be used anywhere in the world for what might happen to the analog market.
PE
I would be happy to be wrong in my conjecture. If emerging economies can keep film afloat I'll keep buying it.
Well, this was the problem with Kodak's model and that of just about every other film company. Large countries like Brazil and China as well as parts of Africa just jumped into digital and bypassed analog. The Kodak model said B&W analog -> color analog -> digital, but the analog was bypassed due to the huge drop in prices of digital items.
PE
PE
That is true.
However, yesterday I saw an ad for a report that China was behind the surge in the price of silver... Can't form an informed opinion myself, but given the known history of the last silver price explosion, it probably makes sense to take a deeper look....
The report might be offered for "free"...
if anyone reads it please do comment on it here.
Ray
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