Phoenix II - released 2025-07-16 - speculation and hints during the lead up

[MattKing]

Right now I really wish this site had a "Like" button.

We intentionally don't do that. We think there is more value if people put the extra effort into doing what you have done.

 

[Agulliver]

People do routinely take effective 20% cuts when making career choices. If I had gone into finance instead of pure science my income would be a heck of a lot more than 25% more than what I currently make. But of course, I try to have a salary that allows me to enjoy life with some level of safety and comfort. Both things can and do coexist in a lot of people. You don't get to decide that 20% salary is the price of passion, or that passion can be dismissed or is diminished if people quit due to a 20% pay cut. Maybe that's how it is for you, but life is complex and everyone is different.

If I had chosen to work in a sector other than education I could likely double my salary....but I am *happy* here. If I took on photography as a serious side hustle I could probably add 20% to my income, but that would spoil my enjoyment of photography so I don't do it.

However, if I were asked to take a 20% pay cut in my current job, I'd seriously look at doing similar work elsewhere. And that's despite being here 26 years and feeling a connection to the community. Harman aren't a charity, but they are passionate about and dedicated to film photography including keeping a full range of traditional film, chemicals and paper available at realistic prices with global distribution. Grabbing even a few % of the CN film market will enable them to future proof these endeavours.

 

[halfaman]

Instead they chose to take a stab at making a brand new color film from whole cloth in the 2020s. Not because the market "needed" it (several excellent Kodak color films exist, after all), and not because it seemed like a direct path to maximum profits. Not even because they thought they could compete meaningfully in the market of extremely particular color film consumers, on technical merit; they had to know that they'd be decades behind Kodak's technology. Perhaps my speculation is incorrect, but it seems very on brand for them to do this primarily in the name of giving film photographers more options and enriching the hobby for us all. Of course they would need to do it in a way that doesn't compromise their business viability or lose them a ton of money. But money doesn't seem like it was the primary motivation for the endeavor.

I think the reason might be more simple. Color negative film sales are much higher than BW film, like 4 to 1. If Harman wants to grow, CN film is a way to do it when now there is only one real player standing (Kodak).

 

[koraks]

I think the reason might be more simple. Color negative film sales are much higher than BW film, like 4 to 1. If Harman wants to grow, CN film is a way to do it when now there is only one real player standing (Kodak).

Yes, this is quite obviously the case. Pemberstone will have financial expectations of Harman and those can only be realized through growth. Growth is not really possible to a significant degree in B&W film and most certainly not in paper. So they'd face the choice between expanding into the domain of color film, or explore entirely other avenues where they'd apply their competencies to different markets (much like Kodak and Fuji have done). It seems that Harman has chosen to focus on their existing market and extend their technology base instead of trying to take on entirely new markets.

 

[Disconnekt]

I think the way Harman is doing it now is fine. Its not the 80s/90s where they where getting money hand over fist, so back then they couldve done it in secret. With how crazy everything is going on nowadays, I dont think they want to risk putting a huge amount of money tied into it.

At least the way theyre doing it now, its pretty much a "yeah it's a work in progress, but there's something you can actually buy/hold/use while its being improved to a "final"/complete product down the road"

 

[Agulliver]

I think the reason might be more simple. Color negative film sales are much higher than BW film, like 4 to 1. If Harman wants to grow, CN film is a way to do it when now there is only one real player standing (Kodak).

100% agreed except I think it's more like 10-to-1

There's no feasible room for Harman to grow in the B&W film and paper markets because they are already the market leader by some margin. They have unparalleled global distribution and brand reputation, especially for the Ilford brand. Harman very much have their finger on the pulse with their annual surveys of film users and engagement on social media. They're almost certainly right to cautiously expand the business by introducing C41 film....it keeps close to their core business rather than using their expertise in some totally unrelated industry. And if they did the latter, which might also be viable if the right industry was chosen....no doubt members here would worry that "Pemberstone is abandoning us!".

 

[brbo]

100% agreed except I think it's more like 10-to-1

And I hope Harman doesn't forget this. Because, if they keep "improving" their Phoenix film in the way they improved Phoenix II... Phoenix V will be a BW film. Ortho.





(I'm sure I forgot to put a bunch of smilies in my post, but I bet responses will be more fun that way)

 

[pentaxuser]

Yes, and I suppose I should clarify that I'm not claiming Harman's venture into producing a color film was some kind of charity or philanthropy decision. More just that I get the sense Ilford could easily scale up and stick to their core competency of making excellent B&W films, papers, and chemistry if they wanted to. And that that would probably be a less risky and more rewarding business plan if the sole goal was to increase profits.

Thanks I am sure you are right in sentences one and two. I am less sure that sentence three follows logically from one and two

pentaxuser

 

[tykos]

I agree that a large investment is needed, but this is what the vast majority of companies with innovative products do.

Imagine if medical device or pharma companies took Harman's approach! (Fortunately there are agencies like the FDA to keep an eye on this.)

Lucky have just released their ISO200 CN film ... looks nice, first time. They made an investment.

...but they are not a pharma company.
They work in an industry where there's interest for not perfect products and they take an advantage out of it. Why is that a problem?

I'm pretty sure that if they would've had the financial and technical power to market directly a complete product they would've done that: imagine the impressive launch "hi, we're the old bw lads, remember us? Now please take this 3-times-better-than-portra-film at 9.99£, kodak sucks, fuji can't even coat their acros, now we're off to the pub, bye".
That would've been the smartest approach. Having money and tech and time, everybody would've done it and made 10 times more money than these small releases of prototype films.
So, 2 hypothesis: 1-they're really not smart 2-money/tech need to be raised somewhat.

(i've probably botched a lot of contitionals in this post, i hope the idea is still comprehensible)