That’s an interesting way to think about this, and a good framework for taking a properly exposed image. I completely agree that Instax is a tricky film to shoot manually.
The info here and in the link above is the best info I’ve come across on this topic. There’s nothing in the Instax specification sheet about ISO variability.
I’ve arrived at the same patterns indicated here by my own trial and error. Operating on the guidelines that medium light is about ISO 800, darker situations is ISO 400, but I’ve even gone down to ISO 200, and bright light is at least ISO 1200. In my experience, reciprocity failure starts to show up around 1/30 of a second, so if that’s what my meter reads, then I think twice about taking the image. I also found that Instax has, at most, 2.5 stops of underexposure latitude and at most 1.5 stops of overexposure latitude (other folks have arrived at a similar pattern).
By keeping “ISO variability,” reciprocity failure, and poor exposure latitude in my head when taking an image, I’ve been able to get some good images, on purpose, using Instax.
Like hsandler, it usually takes me more than one try to find a “sweet spot” using these concepts with Instax film.