But there is a possibility that the film division could be spun off or sold. There are some obstacles to doing so (toxic torts come to mind) - but one never knows.
Fuji and Kodak might be too large - but it's a valid question as to whether Ilford, Adox, Foma et. al. are too small.
I'm speaking here of raw material costs and availability. The manufacture of analog photographic materials requires the use of silver and rare earth metals. We have entered a period where not only there is increasing demand for these materials for industrial use (e.g. electric car batteries, etc.) but there is now increasing investor demand for these as well to hedge against currency declines. Add to this the fact that most of the rare earth metals are sourced from China - who have become sort of picky about who they are willing to export these to (witness the embargo of rare earth metals to Japan earlier this year) - and it isn't a stable picture.
Of course these pressures could dissipate - but I would expect that the smaller manufacturers could encounter difficulty in continuing to operate if they persist for much longer.
We will have to see, but I perceive that the long-term outlook has darkened a bit here. We've adjusted to declining demand for analog photo products (so have the remaining manufacturers) but the material cost/availability issues are something else entirely. I do not see any adjustment possible here (except for charging more for the finished product) - the issues simply have to go away.
Obviously, I was referring to an "average" film user. "Typical" would have been a better word.The "average" user, I'm afraid, isn't using film at all.
As for that last thing standing question...I would say that Kodak will let Tri-X and Plus-X go before T-Max. It is their state of the art film, and I think that most film shooters prefer it to the traditional films, though I do not (in general). I'd also guess that 35mm would be the last remaining format, just due to its popularity.
Kodak didn't turn to digital out of necessity though, they helped invent it! Their hope was that a Kodak sensor would be in every camera in the world and that they'd make bucketloads of money over it. Kodak sensors are in some cameras but I wonder how much of a percentage? They guessed wrong, that selling a sensor instead of X rolls of film would generate more profit.
It is not a question of silver nitrate and goldchloride. Market prices of these metals go up due to reasons beyond the photographic industry (just as you indicated) and yes there will be a certain price effect no mater who is in the film business if they raise. But they have also fallen in the past 8 years. No one can predict the future.
.....
I don´t want to put this thought about raw materials and market decline completely off the table but I am pretty convinced that there will be ways to work it out. Technology advances and many materials can be made today at a fraction of the cost they were made 15-20 years ago. Especially in high grade chemistry, synthesis and around solvents.
Let´s not worry to much.
Based on Kodak's recent behavior, I'm betting that there's a 320TXP 7-mil polyester base master roll stored in Rochester. As demand warrants, it's cut and finished. When that roll is used up (or spoils from age), there will be a Tri-X sheet film discontinuation too.I'm glad they're keeping the Tri-X for now...
I was just about to process and print some test 5x7 TMX recently purchased/exposed and then, if satisfied, fill my freezer with it. Even though there still seems to be a fair amount in the retail chain, I've decided not to rely on Kodak. Ilford and Adox deserve the support instead....I would have liked to have used the T-Max 100 in my 5x7. Oh well! Is Neopan made in 5x7 or 8x10?...
That's my new approach. Looking forward to ADOX PAN 400 some time next year!...Let´s not worry to much...
Based on Kodak's recent behavior, I'm betting that there's a 320TXP 7-mil polyester base master roll stored in Rochester. As demand warrants, it's cut and finished. When that roll is used up (or spoils from age), there will be a Tri-X sheet film discontinuation too.
But if what you claim is true then less demand for silver (due to lower volumes being consumed in the photograhic industry) will result in lower silver nitrate prices.
It is not a question of silver nitrate and goldchloride. Market prices of these metals go up due to reasons beyond the photographic industry (just as you indicated) and yes there will be a certain price effect no mater who is in the film business if they raise. But they have also fallen in the past 8 years. No one can predict the future.
It is more a question of the long and complex synthesis of stabilizers and sensitizers for some very small scale products but even with our current level of production (which is very small compared to Kodak´s) we are way beyond the point of well diluting these costs in an economic way.
Film base is also used for LCD screens and other media so there´s no problem as well.
The only problem at present is fibre base paper. Maybe some day someone apart form the paper industry has to start coating baryta on paper. But this has been done up to the 70ies by almost any photo factory and fibre paper is already neither used by Kodak nor by Fuji for over 5 years now.
At present we buy all our raw materials independantly from Kodak and as far as I know our sources do not sell to Kodak or Fuji (which is not difficult to believe because Kodak and Fuji can make almost anything by themselves).
I don´t want to put this thought about raw materials and market decline completely off the table but I am pretty convinced that there will be ways to work it out. Technology advances and many materials can be made today at a fraction of the cost they were made 15-20 years ago. Especially in high grade chemistry, synthesis and around solvents.
Let´s not worry to much.
Mirko
Let´s not worry to much.
Mirko
I understand that many here will be incredulous. However, I went to the web site of a company that sells 8x10 Kodak film, and was greeted with the news that Kodak 8x10 TMax 400 and 100 film had been discontinued immediately. I called Kodak, and the gentleman with whom I spoke called individuals in Kodak Corporate who confirmed that indeed, in 8x10 sizes, both Kodak Tmax 400 and 100 will no longer be manufactured. Such films will be available in 4x5 sheets. Thus, the only 8x10 Kodak black and white film that will be offered on a regular basis will be TriX and ONLY if the demand for such film continues. One can only hope that Ilford will continue to make their excellent 8x10 HP5, FP4, and Delta 100.
On the Canham site I only see 5x7. So let me get this straight, there won't be any 8x10 PERIOD?
Based on Kodak's recent behavior, I'm betting that there's a 320TXP 7-mil polyester base master roll stored in Rochester. As demand warrants, it's cut and finished. When that roll is used up (or spoils from age), there will be a Tri-X sheet film discontinuation too.
I might mention here that in talking to a friend, he informed me that Kodak orders for 8x10 film in the last year were so sparse that they were hand packed rather than machine packed. So for all the noise here, there appear to have been few orders. So few that the automatic packing equipment for the large sizes was shut down.
PE
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