Kodak Stock Down to $5.45

[Sirius Glass]

This article was posted at the beginning of 2017. The author nailed it big time. His analysis of Kodak's financial situation led him to conclude that Kodak was in very deep trouble and vastly overrated by the market. In the 12 months since it's publication, Kodak's stock has dropped 80%. Anyone who followed his advice made a LOT of money shorting Kodak stock. Reading the article paints a very very dire situation for Kodak and illuminates yet again how Kodak management sold off a profitable business.

"In 2016, the company decided to divest the PROSPER unit, which is part of the Enterprise Inkjet Systems segment. This is somewhat puzzling, since revenues for the unit grew by 40% on a comparable quarterly basis and 12% on a YOY basis.

Kodak will maintain its VERSAMRK product, which is not only less advanced technologically but also under rapid decline from a price and volume perspective, according to management. It's also unclear why the company is divesting PROSPER, since it has features that can lead to stable and recurring revenues."

The metrics used by this author (Z-Score, 75% accurate) predict a bankruptcy for Kodak in 12-18 months with Jan, 2017 as time zero.

Dead Link Removed

Not the first time Kodak sold off very successful parts. They sold the very profitable Commercial and Government sector with a very high ROI to ITT. A lot of companies do that to have a big short term profit for the bean counters. It requires long term stupidity.

 

[eddie]

What bothers me about posts like this is how some people seem to get some sort of perverse pleasure in Kodak's (perceived) demise. It's almost as if they want to lay the groundwork for, "I told you so. I told you so." We're supposed to be a community of film fans. I'd think we'd be more hopeful, and more supportive, about the future. My lifelong passion for photography started in the early 70's with Kodak products. Many of those products have come and gone in the ensuing years, but there are still a number of fine offerings I can purchase with a few keystrokes. As Sirius pointed out, the news of film's death has been going on for a long while. Why are some members of this site seemingly so excited to dance on its grave?

 

[faberryman]

That includes investing what is at this point over $200K in providing what will be an inspired space for people to do the work.

Think of it this way. If you had invested that $200K in Kodak stock this time last year, you would have just $40K left today. Good call.

 

[RattyMouse]

What bothers me about posts like this is how some people seem to get some sort of perverse pleasure in Kodak's (perceived) demise. It's almost as if they want to lay the groundwork for, "I told you so. I told you so." We're supposed to be a community of film fans. I'd think we'd be more hopeful, and more supportive, about the future. My lifelong passion for photography started in the early 70's with Kodak products. Many of those products have come and gone in the ensuing years, but there are still a number of fine offerings I can purchase with a few keystrokes. As Sirius pointed out, the news of film's death has been going on for a long while. Why are some members of this site seemingly so excited to dance on its grave?

Who is excited by Kodak's demise? It's not me. Maybe someone else. Any happiness or excitement you may detect from me over Kodak's stock tanking is strictly found only in your imagination.

Film photography is not my only hobby. I'm also very interested in the chemical/photo industry and the stock market, so you can find me discussing this at various times. If I could figure out a way to play Kodak's stock I'd do so. It plunged to a new all time post bankruptcy low ($2.98/share) in today's trading but then shot up a full dime. I'd love to know why that happened so that I could trade that stock for some nice gains.

 

[RattyMouse]

Not the first time Kodak sold off very successful parts. They sold the very profitable Commercial and Government sector with a very high ROI to ITT. A lot of companies do that to have a big short term profit for the bean counters. It requires long term stupidity.

Long term stupidity. Now that's a quality that have not heard described before. OUCH.

 

[RattyMouse]

it is rather sad and even depressing to know that this minute by minute monitoring of this even exists on a place like this site which is what one would hope to be a champion of keeping the craft alive.

What did you expect to find when you opened up and read many pages of a thread titled "Kodak Stock is Tanking"? If such a topic is so depressing to you, why did YOU read it?

I feel I can no longer do this and at the beginning of this next semester will actually tell them to avoid it as will I.

How many times have you threatened/promised to leave APUG?

 

[RattyMouse]

Getting back on topic, with some positive news. In today's trading, Kodak did break through the $3/share level, but at the close finished higher at $3.08. So there's still some support at the $3 level. Let's see if it holds on the final trading day of the year.

 

[cmacd123]

"In 2016, the company decided to divest the PROSPER unit, which is part of the Enterprise Inkjet Systems segment. This is somewhat puzzling, since revenues for the unit grew by 40% on a comparable quarterly basis and 12% on a YOY basis.

Kodak will maintain its VERSAMRK product, which is not only less advanced technologically but also under rapid decline from a price and volume perspective, according to management. It's also unclear why the company is divesting PROSPER, since it has features that can lead to stable and recurring revenues."

eastman Kodak - snatching defeat from the Jaws of Victory since 1888

 

[cmacd123]

No, the brand new entity AgfaPhoto was not public. The selling of their consumer products section by Agfa to that new entity and the bancrupsy short after indeed looks suspicious, but no official accusation was made. Nevertheless Agfa later got cought up by that sale nevertheles as by highest court decision they had to come up for pension claims of their transferred employees nontheless. ...
But aside of that sale the later inability to sell AgfaPhoto's most modern coating facility tells a lot of the market back then. Fuji by they way had similar problems with their idle facilities.

Is there not a parallel with what happened at "Forte" It appears that in both cases the real estate (even as a brownfield) was worth more than what the ongiing business was worth as a going concern. In the Agfa case, the folks at Agfa Belgum seem to have not considered that the business could be worth closing, (or they would have been more careful with the pension Liabilities) Both factories were turned into real estate.

Much the same happened with IMATION Italy, where the local government has demolished most of the factory, with a couple of visionaries (or dreamers if you are cynical) attempting to save the critical technology and product lines.

In Fuji Europe's case, they undoubidly prefered to see the factory sold for bit and pieces as they did not want to jump start a compeditor.

 

[AgX]

In the Agfa case, the folks at Agfa Belgum seem to have not considered that the business could be worth closing, (or they would have been more careful with the pension Liabilities) Both factories were turned into real estate.

In the case of Agfa most real estate of gone under AgfaPhoto is still industrial ground. The ground in Munich indeed was turned into a non-industrial site. The ground in Leverkusen did not even belong to Agfa.

 

[mshchem]

Kodak isn't going away. The cash bleed will stop when the stock holders (increasingly hedge funds) sack the leadership and divest the commercial printing business. If the coating line is in good shape, and IT IS. Film is a cash cow. Kodak has no competition in color negative/print film cine and still. There's still a lot of work done on film. And there's a real resurgence of young people, high schools, fine art work etc.
I will bet you that someone will accumulate enough shares that they can make an offer of 5 bucks a share and take over an ICONIC BRAND and make a boatload of money. Not trying to sell 3D printers or dopey cell phones. Film and cameras will make up part of it, but the opportunities for mass market consumer goods, in the hands of a marketing genius are endless.

I see that the supplies of TMAX 100, TMX 120 is back in stock at B&H. 6 bucks a roll! SWEET! Waiting for Ektachrome!
Best Regards, Mike

 

[mshchem]

In the case of Agfa most real estate of gone under AgfaPhoto is still industrial ground. The ground in Munich indeed was turned into a non-industrial site. The ground in Leverkusen did not even belong to Agfa.

I used to do a lot of business with Bayer. I could get free 35 mm Agfa slide and black and white film from the salesman that called on me. Even after Bayer and Agfa split both companies gave their employees great deals on film and Aspirin I've been to Bayer Leverkusen. That was the good old days!

 

[Sal Santamaura]

What bothers me about posts like this is how some people seem to get some sort of perverse pleasure in Kodak's (perceived) demise. It's almost as if they want to lay the groundwork for, "I told you so. I told you so."...

That's a passive interpretation. Note that there's also an active denigration of product and how Alaris handled an issue with its outsourced 120 backing paper. An ongoing attitude of perfect technical prescience along with skill at customer relations, compared to Kodak's ineptitude.

Yeah, the posts you're referring to can accomplish nothing in promoting film. They can only contribute to its downfall. Not just Kodak film's, all film's. Nonetheless, I expect them to continue unabated.

 

[AgX]

I used to do a lot of business with Bayer. I could get free 35 mm Agfa slide and black and white film from the salesman that called on me. Even after Bayer and Agfa split both companies gave their employees great deals on film and Aspirin I've been to Bayer Leverkusen. That was the good old days!

The name Bayer even vanishes more and more in their historic homesteads in Germany, being replaced by artificial names of successor entities. Even completely in one of those places including the iconic Bayer-cross.

 

[RattyMouse]

Kodak isn't going away. The cash bleed will stop when the stock holders (increasingly hedge funds) sack the leadership and divest the commercial printing business. If the coating line is in good shape, and IT IS. Film is a cash cow. Kodak has no competition in color negative/print film cine and still. There's still a lot of work done on film. And there's a real resurgence of young people, high schools, fine art work etc.
I will bet you that someone will accumulate enough shares that they can make an offer of 5 bucks a share and take over an ICONIC BRAND and make a boatload of money. Not trying to sell 3D printers or dopey cell phones. Film and cameras will make up part of it, but the opportunities for mass market consumer goods, in the hands of a marketing genius are endless.

I see that the supplies of TMAX 100, TMX 120 is back in stock at B&H. 6 bucks a roll! SWEET! Waiting for Ektachrome!
Best Regards, Mike

Any idea how many movies have been shot on film in 2017? Kodak's contract with the Hollywood studios is almost completed and we should hear some sort of news in 2018 about a new one. The old guard of film directors are determined to shoot on film, but they are at the end of their careers and this passion needs to be transferred onto the next generation. Tracking the number of movies shot on film is a key indicator on how successful this process is going.

Movie film is the only product Kodak makes from film that is a cash cow. Where movie film goes, so goes Kodak's future.

Kodak has lost 80% of its value this year. At what point do investors move in to take it over? There isn't even a hint of this happening. Such a dramatic drop in price means that more people are selling shares than buying. Far more selling.

Perhaps the key to a divestiture is a second bankruptcy. Here many old debts can be wiped away, poor businesses shuttered, and profitable ones restarted.

If true, it would be ironic in that fans of Kodak would WANT this bankruptcy to occur so that the rebuilding process could continue.

 

[mshchem]

Any idea how many movies have been shot on film in 2017? Kodak's contract with the Hollywood studios is almost completed and we should hear some sort of news in 2018 about a new one. The old guard of film directors are determined to shoot on film, but they are at the end of their careers and this passion needs to be transferred onto the next generation. Tracking the number of movies shot on film is a key indicator on how successful this process is going.

Movie film is the only product Kodak makes from film that is a cash cow. Where movie film goes, so goes Kodak's future.

Kodak has lost 80% of its value this year. At what point do investors move in to take it over? There isn't even a hint of this happening. Such a dramatic drop in price means that more people are selling shares than buying. Far more selling.

Perhaps the key to a divestiture is a second bankruptcy. Here many old debts can be wiped away, poor businesses shuttered, and profitable ones restarted.

If true, it would be ironic in that fans of Kodak would WANT this bankruptcy to occur so that the rebuilding process could continue.

More people are NOT selling than buying. For every share sold one is bought. This is a classic setup for a "short squeeze " there's so many geniuses shorting the stock that when the worm turns, there often is a huge jump up on short coverage. This isn't some lala land worthless dot com. I am confident that this will work out. The finest products, people, and plant.

 

[RattyMouse]

More people are NOT selling than buying. For every share sold one is bought. This is a classic setup for a "short squeeze " there's so many geniuses shorting the stock that when the worm turns, there often is a huge jump up on short coverage. This isn't some lala land worthless dot com. I am confident that this will work out. The finest products, people, and plant.

When the price drops hard, it's often the market makers who have to step in and buy. They buy at a lower price and so you see prices drift down and down.

50 people may be selling but there may be only one buyer, the market maker.

 

[mshchem]

When the price drops hard, it's often the market makers who have to step in and buy. They buy at a lower price and so you see prices drift down and down.

50 people may be selling but there may be only one buyer, the market maker.

If this is indeed happening. 50 individuals selling to one organization buying then someone or a group is attempting to take a major share of the company. Reminds me of "Trading Places"
People are panicking out of pork bellies

 

[RattyMouse]

If this is indeed happening. 50 individuals selling to one organization buying then someone or a group is attempting to take a major share of the company. Reminds me of "Trading Places"
People are panicking out of pork bellies

You need to read up on what a market maker is. All stocks have market makers assigned to them. Their job is to buy and sell stocks on the various exchanges. They are not accumulating stock to take over any company.

"The market makers provide a required amount of liquidity to the security's market, and take the other side of trades when there are short-term buy-and-sell-side imbalances in customer orders. In return, the specialist is granted various informational and trade execution advantages."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_maker

 

[mshchem]

Ok you're a financial genius. Peace

 

[removed account4]

if you have an account at etrade or one of the other places
you can look at the inside-company trades and see all the people
exercising their options &c. some folks sold things since october but
people inside are buying .. might be a good time to buy buy buy !
im guessing ron harris on barney miller ( ron glass ) would be
on the phone with his broker and buying a ton ...

 

[David A. Goldfarb]

Title updated. Every time I see this thread about "Kodak Stock Tanks" I think it has something to do with a sale on Kodak-branded vessels for undiluted solutions (and "tanks" is sometimes a search keyword around here).

 

[mshchem]

Title updated. Every time I see this thread about "Kodak Stock Tanks" I think it has something to do with a sale on Kodak-branded vessels for undiluted solutions (and "tanks" is sometimes a search keyword around here).

Good call. I did buy a Kodak Day-Load ta*k off Ebay last week for 7 bucks. I figure I have every other system, figured I would try out more retro tech.
Geez I'm pretty sure everything will work out.

 

[alanrockwood]

You need to read up on what a market maker is. All stocks have market makers assigned to them. Their job is to buy and sell stocks on the various exchanges. They are not accumulating stock to take over any company.

"The market makers provide a required amount of liquidity to the security's market, and take the other side of trades when there are short-term buy-and-sell-side imbalances in customer orders. In return, the specialist is granted various informational and trade execution advantages."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_maker

That is a very good short explanation of what a market maker does. On the New York Stock Exchange they have "Specialists" that act as market makers.

 

[mshchem]

Here's an even better one
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/makeamarket.asp

Do you think Fidelity has to have a "market maker" for Kodak? Sure the broker has to be able to cover all their positions. "Making a market" has more to do with OTC trades and oddball financial instruments than the NYSE.
THIS HAS GONE WAY OFF TOPIC. My original intent when I started this was to express my surprise at the market performance of Eastman Kodak. I'm wasn't trying to kickoff the countdown to doomsday.