You have got to be kidding me...
In New York, where there's a critical mass of media industry, and photography to support the media industry, there are labs to support film and digital--fewer than there used to be, but enough to meet demand certainly. Of course we all know that print and internet need digital files these days, so more and more is digital, but at the high end, if a photographer's vision is best achieved with film, the dip-and-dunk lines are still running, and we've still got 4-hour turnaround on E-6 without a rush order, and if it's the kind of job where it is more expensive to pay the models and assistants to wait on set than to rush the film, rush and double rush are still available, and labs will work with major clients who shoot film to make things work for them.
I don't know how this plays out in other cities, but I suspect we're just seeing concentration of media photography anyway in major cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, because that's where the rest of the industry is, and film is a viable commercial medium in those places where there are businesses that can afford the luxury of film. In a high-circulation slick fashion magazine where a full page can cost more than $100,000 just for the ad space, the cost of film and processing and whatever one needs to do to achieve the desired level of "convenience" is insignificant.
Steel is gradually coming back, Ron. People are starting to figure out that it is way more expensive to ship scrap more than the circumference of the
earth to get dubious quality and spot outages. But it never was a miscalculation to outsource it. Rather, there was an oligarchy of about twelve very wealthy businessmen who controlled the scrap steel commodity. They made huge sums of money monopolizing its trade and
by shuffling it back and forth. Stainless is a more specialized material and
a lot of what is imported is only marginally worthy to be called stainless.
Economical "stainless" sinks will sometimes rust within half an hour with
lemon juice or ketchup on it - not even 18-8, let alone 303 or 316. But
you'd be amazed how fast someone's temper can flare when they realize
they're sitting on a couple of acres or a few million dollars worth of outsourced rebar that won't pass inspection. The smart-alecs only rule
the roost for awhile.
So how suddenly is "suddenly" then? Months? Years? Decades? Once Lehman tanked the markets froze immediately, the same day! When AIG had to be saved from its own criminal stupidity, insurers suffered immediately, not weeks later.Greece has a credit event and all the other countries are scrutinized and their risk profiles rise. AIG had a credit event, and insurers suddenly had solvency issues all over.
[...]
I never said weeks, either.
Henning already mentioned that there seem to be regional differences in popularity of film and dark room related things. Nobody denies that demand&supply took a strong hit in the last 10-15 years, but in some areas (including Central Europe) they are still hanging in there.Where I live, no darkroom supplies are available. None. It's all mail order or nothing, and vast geographic swathes are subject to the same problems, so on the balance of facts, Ilford will eventually have problems as well. If there is more supply of darkroom than demand, then the same will happen to film. If the biggest supplier has problems in ANY industry, there is strong potential for cascading problems throughout an already stressed supply chain.
So how suddenly is "suddenly" then? Months? Years? Decades? Once Lehman tanked the markets froze immediately, the same day! When AIG had to be saved from its own criminal stupidity, insurers suffered immediately, not weeks later.
To be honest, your credibility would suffer less if you said "yeah, I was wrong here for such and such reason" than drag out this doom prediction game for another six months just to see it fail again.
Henning already mentioned that there seem to be regional differences in popularity of film and dark room related things. Nobody denies that demand&supply took a strong hit in the last 10-15 years, but in some areas (including Central Europe) they are still hanging in there.
Lots of high-end digital in use to be sure, but someone's out there feeding the processing lines at Duggal, Modernage, and LTI.
We've also got universities teaching film photography, two freestanding Lomography shops and Lomography products in several other stores around the city, not to mention establishments that are happy to feed the desires of Leica enthusiasts and Rollei fetishists, rental houses with both film and digital equipment, rental darkrooms, studio space, and generally anything one needs to be any kind of photographer one wants to be, if one has the talent, imagination, and financial resources.
Steel is gradually coming back, Ron. People are starting to figure out that it is way more expensive to ship scrap more than the circumference of the
earth to get dubious quality and spot outages. But it never was a miscalculation to outsource it. Rather, there was an oligarchy of about twelve very wealthy businessmen who controlled the scrap steel commodity. They made huge sums of money monopolizing its trade and
by shuffling it back and forth. Stainless is a more specialized material and
a lot of what is imported is only marginally worthy to be called stainless.
Economical "stainless" sinks will sometimes rust within half an hour with
lemon juice or ketchup on it - not even 18-8, let alone 303 or 316. But
you'd be amazed how fast someone's temper can flare when they realize
they're sitting on a couple of acres or a few million dollars worth of outsourced rebar that won't pass inspection. The smart-alecs only rule
the roost for awhile.
The increases in gas prices hurt me more than increases in film prices. Yet one is the result of increased demand while the other is supposed to be the result of insufficient demand. The answer to this is that any company will crank prices as high as the market will bear. While everybody talks about Fuji, Kodak and Ilford competing in the same market, there is no direct competitor to Portra or Velvia or Delta 3200 (in 120 roll film at least). All these "competitors" are basically monopolists in their niche and take full advantage of it. Profitably.You already saw it with Kodak price increases.
I see a slow trend but no sudden disaster. A slow trend can stop or reverse any time. Some films have been discontinued but I fail to see an "acceleration of product losses". What I do see is a move from dinosaur products to niche products, look at the Rollei product line.You'll see an acceleration of product losses, like Plus-X, and E6, and more cuts from Fuji as well.
To retain cash they'll start retracting less profitable product lines and force consumer choices elsewhere.
There is no need to mothball any surplus capacity as the Kodak machinery in question is unsuitable for niche production. Either they can use one single coating line for every remaining product in their portfolio including film and paper, or they have to repurpose a coating machine from their R&D.The clock ticking is the 13 months of Ch. 11 for Kodak. Because Kodak is so big, its reorganization forces all the suppliers (and their suppliers, and their money backing them) to reorganize, or at least plan contingencies, as well. Once those creditors see a measure of residual demand for film (the niche), then you'll see the credit and investment scale to that demand curve. All that surplus capacity will not be mothballed, it will be scrapped and the capital reallocated elsewhere.
There is no need to mothball any surplus capacity as the Kodak machinery in question is unsuitable for niche production. Either they can use one single coating line for every remaining product in their portfolio including film and paper, or they have to repurpose a coating machine from their R&D.
We are passionate about monochrome, we are passionate about analog but firstly we run a business and remain robustly profitable.
It has a product to product change regime that no one else could match ( 90 minutes ).
Dear Aristophanes,
Just read your post :
ILFORD "dogged by bankruptcy"..... the business strated 1879 made it to 2004 then had an 'administration' ( not dissimilar to Chapter 11 ) thats not dogged.
Yesterday, HARMAN technology, the management buy out celebrated 7 years in business.
ILFORD has always been a niche marketeer, in photo we stayed with Black & White and specialised.
"Machines quite old" : Our automated emulsion making is state of the art, bar no-one. Our finishing is state of the art.
Our coating machine is indeed from the 1970's : It is now probably the most flexible photo quality coating machine in the world: It coats film / paper / inkjet / polyester base / art / and other substrates. It is maintained and upgraded by our own engineers to an exceptional level and has a new process control system recently installed. It has a product to product change regime that no one else could match ( 90 minutes ).
Quality control systems that are in place show almost zero defects in any product range.
Our niche is to maintain all the products we currently make, that we have done and will continue to do. We make more monochrome products than all the other makers, and will continue to do so.
We can and do scale our business, it works just fine.
We are passionate about monochrome, we are passionate about analog but firstly we run a business and remain robustly profitable.
Simon ILFORD Photo / HARMAN technology Limited :
No one should denigrate the quality or capability of any one of these especially Ilford['s facilities].
Dan;
That is right but a bit misleading in this sense. As scale goes down, overhead stays constant and thus cost per unit produced goes up. Also, for some products, as scale goes down so does quality unless the product is redesigned for that scale / speed. This costs money as well.
As I understand it, there is a smaller machine still there and there are some in KRL that could be used with some pain. IDK what exists any more and what costs are involved.
I can say this. At the present time, with good management, there is room for Kodak, Fuji and Ilford along with the smaller European companies. The operative phrase is "with good management" which Kodak has apparently not had under Perez.
PE
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