Ilford prices going up Feb. 1 in North America

[Roger Hicks]

And, yes, this all started with Roger and his unnecessary gratuitous statement that "W" has been responsible for the trading decline of the dollar.

George,

Do you EVER read what I said? I knew there would be the usual statements that Ilford were pricing themselves out of the market, etc., so I suggested a very simple, very obvious reason why imported goods (such as Leicas and Ilford film) are going up faster than the US rate of inflation.

I chose W's arrival in power as a convenient date that most of us remember. Do YOU remember exactly when the dollar started to slide? 'Cos I don't. But I do remember that around then, my dollar income was worth about 35 per cent more than it is now. There were always small fluctuations, a nickel or so, but not 40 cents or more, from about 93 cents at best to about $1.35 at worst.

If you choose to interpret simple economics as an 'unnecessary gratuitous statement', there's not much that I or anyone else can do about it.

The dollar IS weak. The real price of oil in euros or sterling has increased very little, if at all. Do the sums. A $75 barrel today is under 60 euros. When Dubbya came to power -- as I say, it's a date we can all remember a lot easier than the exact date the dollar started to slide -- you could have bought a 60 euro barrel of oil for maybe $55...

So: the US is paying more for oil (= film base, packaging, transport) AND is struggling with a weak dollar which should on its own have accounted for a 30-40 per cent price rise in 6 years or whatever it is. This is why lots of things now cost a lot more than they used to, with price rises way ahead of the US rate of inflation. I'd expect a 50 per cent price rise on imports from hard-currency areas over that period, to accommodate the weak dollar and its side-effects. I even put in the footnote about 'hard' currency so you wouldn't complain at that. So you found something else...

This is NOT America-bashing. It is, as I said, simple economics. My point was that a manufacturer supplying goods to a legitimate importer will normally hold back price rises for as long as possible, and then keep them to a minimum, whereas a grey importer, at the mercy of currency fluctuations, increased transport costs, etc., will probably have to put up prices faster because they do not and indeed cannot take the same view of brand loyalty and mutual trust between customer and supplier.

Now do you understand why I made my 'gratuitous' comment?

R.

 

[FrankB]

7% is hardly profiteering, especially (as has been pointed out) with rising transport and manfacturing costs.

When Ilford went into administration not very long ago the wails of despair from these forums were loud and long (I know, I was one of the wailers). They restructured to fit the smaller market and came back. Because of that we still have a major high-quality film, paper and chemicals materials producer who is publicly committed to traditional black & white photography and who is both bringing out new products and bringing back old ones (possibly two, I'm genuinely not sure whether Fuji still fit all of the above criteria).

There have been requests on the forums for more new products, including several threads on "Delta 25". Well, development (no pun intended) of that emulsion and other products will require funding. Where do you think the money for that will come from?

Ilford operated at a loss before and it drove them into the ground. I for one am not going to criticise their current business model while the product quality is high and the company's future is secure.

 

[Roger Hicks]

Ilford operated at a loss before and it drove them into the ground. I for one am not going to criticise their current business model while the product quality is high and the company's future is secure.

A direct, on-the-record quote from Ilford, just after the management buy-out succeeded, concerning their strategy before bankruptcy:

"We bet the farm on digital, and we very nearly won."

This is of course a reference to the way they treated silver as a cash cow to fund inkjet paper development. Understandably, they never gave me the exact figures, but equally, they didn't argue when I suggested (under the old regime) that silver provided 120-150 per cent of their profits.

Cheers,

R.

 

[copake_ham]

George,

Do you EVER read what I said? I knew there would be the usual statements that Ilford were pricing themselves out of the market, etc., so I suggested a very simple, very obvious reason why imported goods (such as Leicas and Ilford film) are going up faster than the US rate of inflation.

I chose W's arrival in power as a convenient date that most of us remember. Do YOU remember exactly when the dollar started to slide? 'Cos I don't. But I do remember that around then, my dollar income was worth about 35 per cent more than it is now. There were always small fluctuations, a nickel or so, but not 40 cents or more, from about 93 cents at best to about $1.35 at worst.

If you choose to interpret simple economics as an 'unnecessary gratuitous statement', there's not much that I or anyone else can do about it.

The dollar IS weak. The real price of oil in euros or sterling has increased very little, if at all. Do the sums. A $75 barrel today is under 60 euros. When Dubbya came to power -- as I say, it's a date we can all remember a lot easier than the exact date the dollar started to slide -- you could have bought a 60 euro barrel of oil for maybe $55...

So: the US is paying more for oil (= film base, packaging, transport) AND is struggling with a weak dollar which should on its own have accounted for a 30-40 per cent price rise in 6 years or whatever it is. This is why lots of things now cost a lot more than they used to, with price rises way ahead of the US rate of inflation. I'd expect a 50 per cent price rise on imports from hard-currency areas over that period, to accommodate the weak dollar and its side-effects. I even put in the footnote about 'hard' currency so you wouldn't complain at that. So you found something else...

This is NOT America-bashing. It is, as I said, simple economics. My point was that a manufacturer supplying goods to a legitimate importer will normally hold back price rises for as long as possible, and then keep them to a minimum, whereas a grey importer, at the mercy of currency fluctuations, increased transport costs, etc., will probably have to put up prices faster because they do not and indeed cannot take the same view of brand loyalty and mutual trust between customer and supplier.

Now do you understand why I made my 'gratuitous' comment?

R.

Hmmm...Dollar slide vs. Euro began in 2004. "W" was unelected in 2000. US had strong dollar policy for four years after "W" took office.

Hmmm...Current dollar price of a barrel of oil is around $55 (not $75 which was the peak price last Summer).

Hmmm...Fed Reserve sets interest rate policy which directly influences dollar trading value - not W.

Hmmm...Single largest US trading partner has been for many years and remains Canada. So relative trading value of USD$ vs. CDN$ much more relevant than Euro.

Hmmm...Other largest trading partners for finished goods (oil, as a commodity. is multi-sourced) are Japan and China both of whom have huge trade surpluses with US.

Hmmm...China has refused to revalue Renimbi despite repeated requests by US to do so in order to address serious trade imbalance.

Hmmm...Fed adopts "low interest rate, cheap dollar policy" beginning in 2004 in order to achieve effective revaluation of Renimbi.

Hmmm...China and other "tiger economies" have now begun to buy Euros vs. Dollars in seeming confirmation of Fed strategy.

Reality, US trade and economic interests are in Western Hemisphere and Asia - not Europe.

Reality, Americans do not wake up every day weeping and gnashing their teeth because Europeans don't like us. In fact, with each and every passing day, Europe becomes less and less relevant to America; particularly as the ever rising tide of new American immigrants arrive from Latin America and Asia, not Europe.

Yes, Roger, simple economics. And perhaps it should begin to dawn on you that America increasingly does not need Europe and will slowly begin to realize it does not care about it either.

 

[Ed Sukach]

Hmmm...
Hmmm...
Hmmm...
Hmmm...

Oh, the buzzing of the bees in the cigarette trees ... and the soda water fountains ...

In fact, with each and every passing day, Europe becomes less and less relevant to America; particularly as the ever rising tide of new American immigrants arrive from Latin America and Asia, not Europe.
Yes, Roger, simple economics. And perhaps it should begin to dawn on you that America increasingly does not need Europe and will slowly begin to realize it does not care about it either.

Interesting point of view.

I can't help but wondering, though ... Is there some sort of attempt to combat perceived "United States Bashing" by "Europe Bashing"? I think I may just go into the Real Estate business - leasing patches of sand for the requisite head burials.

This implies and interesting Global Relations Philosophy .. "Hooray for everyone who will make money for ME, while I ignore the hell out of everyone else."

Nothing like brittle isolationism - nothing at all.

 

[JBrunner]

A direct, on-the-record quote from Ilford, just after the management buy-out succeeded, concerning their strategy before bankruptcy:

"We bet the farm on digital, and we very nearly won."

This is of course a reference to the way they treated silver as a cash cow to fund inkjet paper development. Understandably, they never gave me the exact figures, but equally, they didn't argue when I suggested (under the old regime) that silver provided 120-150 per cent of their profits.

Cheers,

R.

Hi Roger,

This is interesting, but I don't understand the percentages.
Isn't more than 100% a mathematical impossibility?

Regardless, it does sound something like the behavior of a larger, more yellow company of late.

 

[Roger Hicks]

Hi Roger,

This is interesting, but I don't understand the percentages.
Isn't more than 100% a mathematical impossibility?

Regardless, it does sound something like the behavior of a larger, more yellow company of late.

Nope.

The pre-digital profits (i.e. before deducting the losses incurred by digital) were well over 100 per cent of the actual profit after deducting those losses.

Cheers,

R.

 

[dphill]

I HAVE to take pictures on silver and print on silver. I am not an "Artist", however I may be a dilettante elitist, and I am not wealthy by most U.S.A. standards, but, my Muse demands an analog work flow. So I am willing to pay the price.
I have wasted too much time and money with the digital work flow to learn that fact. Some people can use it, I can't.
Ilford has proven to me that they are worth the time and money spent on their products. They have pissed me off in the past and they probably will in the future. (not much chance of a true matte warmtone in fiber I suppose).
None the less, this increase in price is the wave of the future. Inflation, oil prices and interest rates are the cause and the only way prices will go down is by way of a depression. Imagine, a box of 11x14 fp4+ for a dollar! Of course you will only be bringing home a dollar a day, if you're lucky.

So, you think you can do a better job at running Ilford? Buy it and lets find out!

Dan

Take pictures, not prisoners

 

[Platinumprinter]

Rodger,

???????????

Are you talking about the difference between gross sales and net profit?

John Roseborough

 

[Roger Hicks]

Hmmm...Dollar slide vs. Euro began in 2004. "W" was unelected in 2000. US had strong dollar policy for four years after "W" took office.

Hmmm...Current dollar price of a barrel of oil is around $55 (not $75 which was the peak price last Summer).

Hmmm...Fed Reserve sets interest rate policy which directly influences dollar trading value - not W.

Hmmm...Single largest US trading partner has been for many years and remains Canada. So relative trading value of USD$ vs. CDN$ much more relevant than Euro.

Hmmm...Other largest trading partners for finished goods (oil, as a commodity. is multi-sourced) are Japan and China both of whom have huge trade surpluses with US.

Hmmm...China has refused to revalue Renimbi despite repeated requests by US to do so in order to address serious trade imbalance.

Hmmm...Fed adopts "low interest rate, cheap dollar policy" beginning in 2004 in order to achieve effective revaluation of Renimbi.

Hmmm...China and other "tiger economies" have now begun to buy Euros vs. Dollars in seeming confirmation of Fed strategy.

Reality, US trade and economic interests are in Western Hemisphere and Asia - not Europe.

Reality, Americans do not wake up every day weeping and gnashing their teeth because Europeans don't like us. In fact, with each and every passing day, Europe becomes less and less relevant to America; particularly as the ever rising tide of new American immigrants arrive from Latin America and Asia, not Europe.

Yes, Roger, simple economics. And perhaps it should begin to dawn on you that America increasingly does not need Europe and will slowly begin to realize it does not care about it either.

Well, the last sentiment is simply pitiful, but just to prove that I DO read what you write,

Dollar slide, figures for January and July each year: '01, $0.94 and $0.96 -- '02, $0.88 and $1.01 -- '03, $1.06 and $1.13 -- '04, $1.26 and $1.22 -- '05, $1.31 and $1.20-- '06, $1.21 and $1.27

Now, I may have gotten the numbers slightly wrong, overestimating the maximum strength of the euro (which I recalled at $0.90, or $0.95 +/- 5 cents), though I got the dollar more or less right (it dipped below $1.35 to the euro on Christmas Eve). You, on the other hand, appear to have forgotten when Dubbya came to power.

Yes, I'm perfectly prepared to believe that oil is currently $55 a barrel -- or 42 euros. This doesn't affect the argument about exchange rates.

Did I ever say Dubbya set the exchange rate? No, I said it was a date we could all remember. As the numbers above indicate, it correlates very well with the fall of the dollar, and you may draw your own conclusions about this.

As a point of information, no-one 'sets' exchange rates any more for hard currencies (that's one of the definitions of a hard currency). Yes, the Fed sets interest rates -- but next to economic performance and a stable economy, interest rates don't matter much.

'Fed strategy' -- Yes, of course they need to encourage people to denominate in euros, as you say, to diminish the incredible trade deficit with a vicious, genocidal, imperialist communist regime propped up by greedy Western powers (NOTE GEORGE -- ALL greedy Western powers not just USA, which I will repeat because you'll probably miss it otherwise, NOT JUST USA). Hence the ever-weakening dollar.

If oil is redenominated in euros then the USA will REALLY feel the draught. My own belief is that there is a good chance that this will happen within a decade, after which the euro will quite shortly take over from the dollar as the reserve currency, just as the dollar took over from sterling. The dollar will then weaken just as sterling did: $4.03 to $2.80 in 1949 (roughly 30 per cent again -- seems to be a magic number). How do you fancy a $6500 Leica?

No, the vast majority of Americans don't weep and gnash their teeth over these things -- mostly, as the figures and arguments above demonstrate, because too many of them are ignorant of either the facts or the likely consequences of those facts. Most of the ones who do understand a bit about economics, globalization and interdependence are worried. This includes the Fed...

My apologies to anyone who thinks this is unduly political, but as I say, I'm trying to explain WHY things cost more if they are made in Europe or indeed Japan) and bought with US dollars. THIS IS NOT AMERICA BASHING; it is an argument based on the historical facts of exchange rates and reserve currencies.

Sure, the US can live without Europe, if they don't want to buy Leica cameras, Ilford film, German cars, French and Italian fashions, French wine, and so forth. In fact, if the dollar declines another 30 per cent, as postulated above, they won't be able to afford a lot of this stuff even if they wanted it.

No doubt there some rednecks who would be happy to see this happen; but what the rednecks don't realize is that if the US doesn't buy anything from Europe, there is nothing at all to stop Europeans putting up trade barriers to block US imports -- which are hardly numerous, as the EU could buy most 'American' manufactured goods straight from China or the other countries to which the USA has sub-contracted its manufacturing.

The rest of the world is not quite so ready to write Europe off, so the US would be isolated, with a declining and increasingly irrelevant currency, unable to afford imports, reduced to selling raw materials and commodities, with a labour force that would rather work overseas -- which is pretty much the definition of a third world country.

NOTE AGAIN GEORGE -- I am not saying that the USA IS a third world country, or even that it will become one. Nor am I saying for one moment that I want it to become one, though I am sure you will not believe me when I say that. What I am saying is that this is not an impossible scenario. It is an unlikely scenario, because the Fed aren't fools -- but give the rednecks their head, and it could happen.

The UK fell pretty low: in the early 1980s, the pound sterling was within a nickel or less of parity. Yesterday, it stood at $1.92, down from $1.95 and above the previous week. Having seen what happens when exchange rates go against you, in the real world, makes it hard for me to ignore them.

Cheers,

R.

 

[Roger Hicks]

Rodger,

???????????

Are you talking about the difference between gross sales and net profit?

John Roseborough

Dear John,

Not exactly. From an accounting viewpoint, imagine Ilford as the two separate companies it has become, silver and inkjet (and, to be fair, Cibachrome-as-was). One made a profit; the other, a loss. Add the two together, and the silver company's profits are (let us say) 150 per cent of the united company's profits.

Though actually, it was more of a rhetorical device (and one that is easily understood, I'd have thought) than an accounting statement. You could rephrase it as 'If they hadn't spent all that money on inkjet, their profits would have been 50 per cent higher'. Or, as I put it, 150 per cent of their profits...

Cheers,

Roger (no 'd')

 

[Simon R Galley]

A Reply From ILFORD Photo

Dear All,

Nobody likes putting up prices, but a couple of points I think do need stating.

1) This is not our second price in a Year, we put our prices up one year ago.

2) We have resisted a further increase during 2006, when indeed most of our competitors raised prices stating the rise in silver ( true enough, $ 6 to $ 7 a troy ounce at the start of 2006 its currently $ 12 a troy ounce )

3) Our costs do, and have risen, especially raw materials, energy and wage costs.

4) We are a privately owned company, the six directors who actually work in the business, own the business, we have no external shareholders.

5) The USA is our biggest market the exchange rate $ to £ makes big differences to our profitability. The dollar has weakened.

We have always stated that we have to run a viable business FOR THE LONG TERM and therefore in what is still a declining analog silver market we will inevitably have to adjust our pricing at certain times.

Thank you to all who buy and value our products.

Simon ILFORD photo / HARMAN technology Limited.

 

[Tom Kershaw]

Simon,

Thanks to you to. Please keep making the product, and lets hope the market will stop declining.

Tom.

 

[Petzi]

Please keep making the product, and lets hope the market will stop declining.

At least the decline is slowing down!

 

[FrankB]

So, you think you can do a better job at running Ilford? Buy it and lets find out!

My thoughts exactly.

We have always stated that we have to run a viable business FOR THE LONG TERM and therefore in what is still a declining analog silver market we will inevitably have to adjust our pricing at certain times.

Here's hoping its for the VERY long term!

Thank you to all who buy and value our products.

Thanks for making such good ones. Keep doing that and I'll keep buying them.

Pop down to the UK Gathering at Symonds Yat towards the end of April, Simon (details at the top of the page on this link - (there was a url link here which no longer exists). I'd very much like the opportunity to buy you a pint!

 

[eddym]

We have always stated that we have to run a viable business FOR THE LONG TERM and therefore in what is still a declining analog silver market we will inevitably have to adjust our pricing at certain times.

Dear Simon,
Having spent the morning printing Delta 100 and HP5+ negs on Galerie paper, all I can say is, if I have to pay a little more, I'll pay a little more to keep printing my favorite films on my favorite paper. It still beats printing nothing on nothing.

 

[Roger Hicks]

Dear Simon,
Having spent the morning printing Delta 100 and HP5+ negs on Galerie paper, all I can say is, if I have to pay a little more, I'll pay a little more to keep printing my favorite films on my favorite paper. It still beats printing nothing on nothing.

Aw, come on. Printing on your favourite film on your favourite paper beats printing ANYTHING else on ANYTHING!

Cheers,

R.

 

[firecracker]

They raised the prices here in Japan on Ilford products back in November, by about 8 percent or so. So its certainly not limited to North America, while its not the best thing for us, its the price we are going to have to pay to keep using film. And I will happily keep paying as long as I can.

Gary

Gary, I rememeber something like that, too in the last fall, if it was not the direct result from the price increase back in June. However, there's no notice on Chugai's website about the fall, so that must be something else.

Speaking of which, I cannot afford to buy 25 sheet-pack of 8x10 WT FB paper for about 5,000 yen (45-48 bucks) each from Chugai. I was simply shocked when I wanted to get one recently and found out the latest price. Even the neutral type is set pretty high now, and I don't know how that competes a 50 sheet-box of Fuji (creamy-white base, neutral). Oriental is set back to the normal retail price, too, at least at the stores I buy the stuff.

My pocket is as deep as everyone else's. I don't think Ilford "directors" know the dilemma over here, which I repeatedly say. Well, they've lost me now, but don't worry it's just me, one customer.

 

[student]

Actually, I was just noticing the the prices that Freestyle has on their Fuji Neopan... I might have to try some. I doubt it will be able to tempt me away from Ilford films, though, even with a 7% increase.

Once you try neopan 400, you may never look back...

 

[Peter Schrager]

Ilford

This may or may not be proper but if you are looking to beat the price increase I still have 3 boxes of HP5/100 sheet left from my post Christmas Hangover Sale.
Act now or forever hold your piece!!
Best, Peter

 

[pentaxuser]

If you're in the UK then the current offers on Ilford Multigrade from Nova and Secondhand Darkroom Supplies and probably other retailers make Ilford products a pretty good bargain.

The second last thing exporters like Ilford need is the current trend in the £/$ exchange rate or any other £/other currency rate in which it has a market. The last and fatal thing it needs is selling in the U.S. or other countries at a loss.

pentaxuser

 

[copake_ham]

If you're in the UK then the current offers on Ilford Multigrade from Nova and Secondhand Darkroom Supplies and probably other retailers make Ilford products a pretty good bargain.

The second last thing exporters like Ilford need is the current trend in the £/$ exchange rate or any other £/other currency rate in which it has a market. The last and fatal thing it needs is selling in the U.S. or other countries at a loss.

pentaxuser

Yes.

I would hazard to guess that the first price rise in June was the "normal" annual increase. The second, just announced, was probably due to the exchange rate situation, Perhaps due to the expiration of a currency hedge contract and the consequent need to adjust prices while rewriting a new hedge for pounds v. dollar exposure?

 

[aldevo]

Silver, as a commodity, is also starting to pose a problem for professional/industrial users.

And it isn't just the $-denominated price of silver (which, I seeas I write this, has gone above 13 USD, once again). Distributors are requiring greater volume purchases of the stuff than before. It could be that Ilford has to put larger orders in than previously...

To put this in perspective, I heard from my dentist that week that it's now virtually impossible to use silver in dental amalgam for fillings. Much of that had been replaced by composite-style fillings but amalgam is still better for the chewing surfaces of back teeth. Simply put, dental supply houses can't stock the stuff because they have to put too much money up front to get it.

Silver seems to be getting sucked up as a relatively oil-neutral (not sensitive to the "petrodollar" phenomenon) currency hedge by India and selected countries. And I suspect this problem could be with us for a while.

I hope this doesn't pose a problem to smaller uses of the stuff (Foma, Kentmere, Efke), and I have know immediate reason to suspect that it does, but it seems every little macroeconomic sneeze causes the analog manufacturers to catch a cold.

 

[aldevo]

Silver, as a commodity, is also starting to pose a problem for professional/industrial users.

And it isn't just the $-denominated price of silver (which, I see as I write this, has gone above 13 USD, once again). Distributors are requiring greater volume purchases of the stuff than before. It could be that Ilford has to put larger orders in than previously...

To put this in perspective, I heard from my dentist this week that it's now virtually impossible to use silver in dental amalgam for fillings. Much of that had been replaced by composite-style fillings but amalgam is still better for the chewing surfaces of back teeth. Simply put, dental supply houses can't stock the stuff because they have to put too much money up front to get it in the volumes the brokers want to sell it at.

Silver seems to be getting sucked up as a relatively oil-neutral (not sensitive to the "petrodollar" phenomenon) currency hedge by India and selected countries. And I suspect this problem could be with us for a while.

I hope this doesn't pose a problem to smaller uses of the stuff (Foma, Kentmere, Efke), and I have know immediate reason to suspect that it does, but it seems every little macroeconomic sneeze causes the analog manufacturers to catch a cold.

 

[Simon R Galley]

Dear Aldevo,

I am sure this issue of the high price of silver will be with us for some time...and yes we do have to buy silver in volume...we actually buy it by the tonne! so you can work that bill out for yourself !

Kind Regards

Simon / ILFORD Photo / HARMAN technology Limited