Help for a business plan: market study for new film processor (looking for stats)

[Draveur]

Hi.


A friend and I are undergoing a master in business administration (MBA). For a course, we are preparing a business plan for a new film processor. And we are looking for stats for our market study.

I came up with an idea from which we should be able to somewhat reinvent the min-lab. This idea should give us the capacity to hit a target price of 500$ USD. But like any project, it will probably be a bit higher in the end. It will be capable, among other things, of accepting different brands of tanks.

We will eventually go through a Kickstarter, which is a good way of “testing” the market.

Right now, I am working on the market study. I did come across the Ilford survey and others news about the return of Ferrania and Ektachrome. I did write to film companies in an effort to obtain first hand data with not much success (Kodak Alaris might send me something, but I am still waiting). But for now, I don't have much direct data (numbers) about the state of the film market.

By this post, I would like to ask if any one of you came across specific numbers about sales of films, consumer profiles, geographic sales data, and so on.

I’m still searching the web and I have to check with my university library for any available studies. But maybe some of you came across something that I missed.

Thank you for your help.

Rémi

 

[jvo]

Wit all due respect - Good luck finding the grail!!!

 

[AgX]

I see you do not want to reintroduce a minilab, but a min-lab.
What would that be? Something like a Jobo processor?

Rotary procesing in tempered bath? Manual? Half-automated? Full-automated?

 

[Mr Bill]

By this post, I would like to ask if any one of you came across specific numbers about sales of films, consumer profiles, geographic sales data, and so on.

In years past, the Photo Marketing Association (PMA) used to compile this sort of thing for its members. In depth studies were periodically commissioned, but these were typically very expensive - much more than you would want to pay for a school project.

I don't know if they have kept this up recently, but this is one of the first places I would look for statistics. But I really doubt the sort of info you'd get from this would be much use in trying to gage the market for a "home use" processing machine.

 

[Draveur]

Hi.

Sorry for the "radio silence". Preparing a business plan is somewhat... crazy! Its like doing everything at the same time while going to school... (design, part prices, market study, exams... exams?!).

The project is a rotary processor in precision tempered bath (+/- 0,5°C) for C41 among other things. It will be manual for a simple reason : to make it accessable ($). This said, we have found an easy way to memorize the development parameters for reuse and sharing while having a step-by-step approach for newbies (but with the possibility to tweak the setttings according to your own preference). And it will be capable of receiving most types of tanks.

We plan in 2 version of the processor: a "small" one for the casual shooter using standard tanks and a "long" one for high capacity tanks and "pro" tanks.

We are somewhat ambitious, but I think we can make it come true. For now, our main concern is the market : how many film shooters make enought film per month to justify such product. Reading the web — comments on forums and blogs, it seems that from 5 films per month, a photographer could justify such purchase. The question is : how many people shoot 60 rolls for film per year?

We did get (finally!) some data from Ilford and other small film producers. But not enough to have a clear view of the market. There is a "social" survey that was made in France in 2013 about the reasons why people take pictures : 16% of people are "passionate" about photography (http://www.fisheyemagazine.fr/2013/...mes-plus-passionnees-de-photo-que-les-hommes/). This is one of the most precise number we could get. We need to figure out what is the % of that 16% that shoots film and how many.

Our next step is to make our own survey. School break is coming in 10 days : this will be the moment for spreading our survey. With a bit of luck, we coud get a couple of thousands of answers. This will be the most important step before the Kickstarter. If people don't seem to be excited about the possibility of a new affordable film processor, we will take the time to rethink the project.

Thanks

Rémi.

 

[Wallendo]

I think a big challenge with this project will be finding a way to sample the appropriate target audience.
I, for one, would be very interested in this project. Whether or not I would actually buy it depends on cost and features.
Many APUG members, however, already own processing systems or are happy with their current processes and may have less interest.
I suspect you may get many more positive responses from social media where you are more likely to reach younger people who are relatively new to photography.
Also, when evaluating actual film sales, remember that the heaviest individual users of film most likely already have a processing system in place.

 

[Draveur]

To Richard : I did not think about this one. I did think about looking for spool makers supplying Kodak and Ilford, but could not find anything. Anyway, it is a mba course, so I have to keep going forward. The next step is my own survey.

To Wallendo : yep... finding film shooters, who they are and how many film a year... around the world! That's why my survey is going to be a key figure in my project. If the survey is promissing, the kickstarter is likely to be the next step.

On a website presenting the new Osiris F1 at 760$ (?), a user said something like : I need this, but only if it costs less than one year of mail processing. So, using my super basic math ( , I came up with a benchmark : 5 films/month (60 a year): if I can get my processor out for less than 760$ I should have a market. Photogs shooting some 60 films a year are *likely* to purchace a processor if it is affordable.

At first, without any numbers, I had a 500$ target price. It was a way for me to start somewhere and to force myself to conceive something simple yet durable. The design has to keep the electro-mechanical part as simple as possible.

It will be like the Jobo (chemistry change will be manual) but it will be capable of using mots common tanks and you will be able to save/reuse/share your development parameters + precise temperature settings for C-41 (+/- 0,05°C). Anyway... I came up with an idea that cuts the price while multiplying the functionnalities...

Eventually, there would be a "long" model for high capacity tanks.

I have to admit that now, I'm more around 600$ since I have prices not only for parts, but for shipping and customs (for the parts). But there is one thing about my price : I need to be well under 1200$ (the actual price for the Osiris F1) or film shooters will simply go to my nearest competitor...

And your totally right: heavy film shooters have already their processing solution.

Now for my survey...

R.

ps.: what would be your ideal film processor (not fully automatic) ?

 

[calebarchie]

Has the OP even heard of the "Stark" system? I find that quite laughable.
http://www.catlabs.info/product/pre-order-sst4-universal-film-paper-processor

Does the op have any experience in design and manufacture? Marketing, stats, costs and logistics research/planning ≠ physical product. Of course you could outsource everything else, but I doubt you will be reaching that $500 price point that way.
Show us some designs at least, you are already talking of kickstarters - or will it be one of those scams?

My 2c.

 

[twelvetone12]

I would also be more concerned with production and engineering costs, that for a small production (2k units? 5k units?) can be well over $500 for each.

 

[Nodda Duma]

Material cost will need to be roughly $200 or less..which you could maybe do with molded plastic and even have some basic electronics.

Keep in mind mold costs are about $10k and up, that could be amortized over 1st year's production run but it would need to be paid up front. I would guess NRE would need to be something like a mech engineer and electrical engineer ( and software if needed) for 3-6 months plus overhead. That would be $50k - $100k effort for NRE plus materials to get to prototypes or first article. So total project NRE is, say, $125k (seems a little light but not too much so). Amortize over 1000 unit production run plus material and labor is $525 plus profit. So control material cost and production labor or hope you can find more than 1000 buyers.

Hope this helps. I do several engineering project estimates a year like this..usually for optical devices but after several years of estimating you get a good feel for LOE without needing much project detail. This is a mech and elec job, so two guys/gals for 3-6 months.

 

[AgX]

Recently that Stark processor was auctioned on Ebay in un-used condition for 320€ with 39 bids.

I guess that should be telling.

 

[calebarchie]

Recently that Stark processor was auctioned on Ebay in un-used condition for 320€ with 39 bids.

I guess that should be telling.

Can you provide a link? The product hasn't been released yet, unless the company has gone belly up and selling off whatever they had!

NVM found it
http://www.ebay.de/itm/Stark-SST4-F...D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

 

[AgX]

Interesting.
I thought it already was available from dealers.

 

[calebarchie]

I'm really not sure, seems all over the place called Stark "tek" now.
Taking a closer look the construction seems pretty dodgy - line bended and welded acrylic enclosure (pretty poor looking tolerance) vac formed (polycarbonate?) top, chinese electronics (PT100 PID controller, chinese motor too?) and use of lots of glue (see around heating elements and thermocouple).

Not sure how much they are selling for but the auction seems closer to the mark than the 1600-something preorder.

 

[AgX]

By the way, I wonder if the Stark processor complies with current german electrical safety regulations, seen the mains cable connector.

 

[CatLABS]

This might not be the forum for it, but the build quality of the Stark is superb, above and beyond what anyone might expect. So far everyone who has this machine is ecstatic about it and its finish quality. Bosch motor BTW. It is up to all EU codes.

As for the OP - good luck. There is a similar post about once a year with someone who will build a Jobo like system for less than X$ and it will be better in every respect. So far none have (except for Stark, and they never posted anything here), and i would be happy to see someone do it.
With respect to the OP, i think he will find that even if he ever gets any relevant data from film makers, it will say nothing about how many people process their own film, and that the market for home use film processors is not a mass market, not by a long shot, and that amortizing the cost of making any kind of machine, even without having to comply with any governmental certifications is not easy and risky, so much so, there are only one or two companies in the whole world who actually bother making something like this, and at least one of them is basing most of that on a 50 year manufacturing history, knowledge and experience.
Good luck.

 

[Draveur]

Hi to all.

To Calebarchie : it is legitimate to suspect a scam and I have no problem with that. There is, on the web, the best like the worst. I dont have any experience in design and manufacture. I'm learning everyday, and its hard. This said, I have drawn the plans of a house that is now built and I have rebuilt a 1960 Land Rover. And I have worked on a wide range of projects, going from website/ecommerce to market studies in rail transport (rguertin.com). And I have done a few projects in photography (CD covers, book cover, fashion).

This project is also part of a course for my master in business administration (MBA). So I am going through market study (the survey is the next step; using Drupal), part prices, financial data, operation costs, scenarios, etc. This is *the* step : if the business plan is not viable, than the project will stop right there.

If the business plan is promissing, the next step will be the prototype. I am already preparing this step, meeting with a student in engineering next week. Eventually, there will be a kickstarter, but that is far away for now. First, a viable business plan. And this will be done with the end of school (May).

The 500$ target was a starting point to force myself in finding the "best" solutions in building an affordable film processor. Now I am more around 600$. But things look good as I have found most of my parts, including the computer, the touch screen, the waterbath (probably in stainless steel), the heater and so on.

But my real concern for now is the programming of the computer. Since the machine will work on a step by step approach, the programming might cost a lot.

To Nodda Duma : I know... the injection matrix... That was not fun to learn! But then, it is 10$ per waterbath for the first 1000 units. I am investigating the prices for a waterbath in stainless steel (I know... shipping costs!). I need to have different options for the business plan. I using a software that helps me to make scenarios, including prototypes, salaries, part prices, etc. Pretty cool, helps a lot.

To CatLabs : I find amusing the way you try to dissuade me ("...one or two companies in the whole world", etc.). I guess you want to sell that Stark processor. I am aware of how hard the road ahead is going to be. On thing I can tell you is that there will be no middleman, I will sell directly to the photographers in an effort to keep costs down and to have a constant contac with my clients : feedback is essential for me.

I did get numbers from Ilford and other smaller film companies. And dont worry, I am fullly aware that the film market is a "niche" market. But now I know the countries where the market is strong. Moreover, my market study (that is not over yet), includes a more "anthropological" approach to the market and the reasons why film is still popular (for once, my Ph.D. in Human Geography paid off). Knowing some of the reasons behind the "film revival" helps me understand for how long I can hope to be in business.

But thanks for worring... That was cute.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The Stark processor... It seems to work with one of those chinese PID that only have +/- 1°C in precision, which is not enough for some C-41 (+/- 0.5°C). The other thing is : where do you put your chemistry to get it to temperature? And considering the depth of the machine, the waterbath might not hold very well the temperature of your tank, specially in push process (20 minutes + of processing). But it is hard to tell just from a picture.

And it still works with buttons... In my project, this is getting out of the way. Simplified controls to reduce the costs. I guess the ebay thing is a way for them to test their market and to see how much people are willing to pay for it. If the Stark processor goes out under 500$ my project is busted... But maybe not since I am targeting precise water temperature, speed control of the motor and saving / sharing your development parameters. But again... I need to complete my business plan and my survey.

By the way, my survey is about to be ready (I've got Drupal, a .com and a list of questions; all I need is to put that all together). Your help will be much appreciated, at least for me to succeed my course... School... never thought I went back after a Ph.D.

R.

 

[MattKing]

And it still works with buttons... In my project, this is getting out of the way.

Be careful with this.
A lot of us really prefer dials and buttons. And really would prefer to avoid equipment that can be disabled by an operating system upgrade. For an example, look to the problems encountered by Modern Enlarger Lamps: http://www.modernenlargerlamps.com/Modern_Enlarger_Lamps/Model_3.html

 

[CatLABS]

While skeptical, my wish of good luck to the OP is genuine, and really hope you can "break" the "market", stay in business and make a profit with a 500$ machine. Everyone stands to benefit.

(BTW - Stark are working on a tempering bath. The SST processors have a complex water temp regulating system which produces a very evenly tempered water bath, temp control is +\- 0.1C.)

 

[Draveur]

Be careful with this.
A lot of us really prefer dials and buttons. And really would prefer to avoid equipment that can be disabled by an operating system upgrade. For an example, look to the problems encountered by Modern Enlarger Lamps: http://www.modernenlargerlamps.com/Modern_Enlarger_Lamps/Model_3.html

Intereting comment. We never thought about this and at the same time, the machine will be 100% autonomous : no need to have an internet connection to use it or to save your "profiles".

By the way, our survey is online : Dead Link Removed
R.

 

[Draveur]

Thanks to all who took the time to go through our survey (4 days before I submit my business plan for reviewing... thank God school is about to end!).

I have left a few comments here : (there was a url link here which no longer exists)

The survey will be online for a while to everyone who whishes to share.

Thanks again.

R.