Was it a cliff drop and if so over what period? Unless that period was only a matter of weeks or a few months was there nothing that the major manufacturer such as Kodak could have done such as cutting out shifts, 4 or 3 day week working or voluntary redundancy etc to curtain production such that production then failed to meet the downward trend of demand slowing which was then met by its stock of film which had been already made
The cliff drop argument is superficially sound and may be deeply sound if the demand did say suddenly drop "overnight" i.e a matter of weeks or months and film stocks made in the boom time of only a few weeks previously were about to reach expiry dates but can that really be what the situation was?
Do the facts really support this cliff drop argument and if so what were the numbers backing this argument
pentaxuser
I hope this as well as Ilford's new color offering provide downward pressure on prices. Now if someone could produce an inexpensive general use E-6 like Sensia...
Was it a cliff drop and if so over what period? Unless that period was only a matter of weeks or a few months was there nothing that the major manufacturer such as Kodak could have done such as cutting out shifts, 4 or 3 day week working or voluntary redundancy etc to curtain production such that production then failed to meet the downward trend of demand slowing which was then met by its stock of film which had been already made
Do the facts really support this cliff drop argument
There were persons very keen on Lucky 200, I never tried it personally. I suppose just 35 mm, no 120...
I have talked to someone who has visited the lucky factory, and they say that Lucky does have a 120 machine, and that they are either currently producing or are about to start production of 120 film.
Some observations on my part based on your reply:
It seems that everybody saw this coming for years. If that included Kodak then surely it must have been able to take some action such as mass firing in the U.S. which you have said is easier but as I mentioned there were several other courses of action as well which can instantly lower costs
How many years' stock did a company like Kodak keep in reserve? Was it still producing that level when it met the cliff drop and is so why? Was it not part of everybody who saw it coming
Was the cut throat price you mention less than the cost of producing the product and if it was then surely this added to the cost rather than offset it this making the position worse?
Did Fuji not have to do the same as Kodak and if so but with lots of other non film products to sustain them why did Fuji not simply stop film production for good in 2004/5?
There may be a complete explanation of exactly what led to the price drop, how big the price drop was and why Kodak eventually went into bankruptcy but then arose from the ashes as a suitably downsized organisation but I don't think we any of us have seen all the information of this or even enough of it to be able to join all the dots completely
pentaxuser
How many years' stock did a company like Kodak keep in reserve?
Was the cut throat price you mention less than the cost of producing the product
Did Fuji not have to do the same as Kodak and if so but with lots of other non film products to sustain them why did Fuji not simply stop film production for good in 2004/5?
There may be a complete explanation of exactly what led to the price drop, how big the price drop was and why Kodak eventually went into bankruptcy but then arose from the ashes as a suitably downsized organisation
This is a bit like remarking to a pilot "but you see, since you don't really understand quantum physics, you're not really capable of entirely figuring out why this plane flies..." and yet, the pilot manages to land the damn thing safely. Apparently he knows enough to get by. So much has been published on this. If you find it interesting, why don't you do some reading?I don't think we any of us have seen all the information of this or even enough of it to be able to join all the dots completely
It was inventories of people.
Probably a stretch...but any hope of 220 as well?
If you are in the UK we actually re spool ektachrome from the large 1000ft motion pic rolls!
'REAL' E100 36exp sells for £26 here where we can sell it for £16-£18 depending on our site vs Ebay (fees).
Cheaper than Portra
No. At least not in big volume like 120. That same friend went to Shanghai and their 220 production is only slightly more sophisticated than mine, basically they just have more people in the dark, and more precise jigs. All 220 is handmade, no machines are currently operating.
just ordered my first 10 rolls of Phoenix
If you are in the UK we actually re spool ektachrome from the large 1000ft motion pic rolls!
'REAL' E100 36exp sells for £26 here where we can sell it for £16-£18 depending on our site vs Ebay (fees).
Cheaper than Portra
Kodak's technological forecasting (done by analog engineers) said that digital would not become relevant until 2020. I was among those who disagreed and pointed out that Moore's law was not taken into account in this (among other problems such as chemists talking about electronics). I was actually sworn at by a Kodak manager which was actually a very very rare thing at EK. I was asked to get out of his office.
Kodak handled all digital R&D very poorly.
PE
The downtrend took everyone in the conventional photo industry by surprise, Eastman Kodak included. The rate has also been faster than anyone predicted at any company, and has led to what we are discussing here. If any company could have predicted it to any degree of accuracy, Agfa, Ilford and the others would not be having these financical difficulties. They would have been able to cope with a gradual downturn if they had been able to accurately predict it. So, if you are going to cast blame, spread it around evenly.
In fact, I would bet that Fuji is in worse shape than we know, but that the Japanese government is aiding them as it does many companies in Japan.
I just wish them all good luck. They are going to need it.
PE
All chemicals used in color systems are custom synthesized by Kodak or Fuji in their own labs. Some companies may contract out synthesis, such as Ferrania. Agfa made their own or bought some from IG Farben. They are expensive and hard to make. Coating them is not easy either as it takes equipment far more sophisticated than at least Efke has at present. Even Ilford tried and then exited the market years ago.
So color will not be a "cottage" industry if it ever vanishes.
I believe that a form of dye bleach or a 3 color system may exist in the future, but I really cannot say as these chemicals are also so hard to get.
PE
No. At least not in big volume like 120. That same friend went to Shanghai and their 220 production is only slightly more sophisticated than mine, basically they just have more people in the dark, and more precise jigs. All 220 is handmade, no machines are currently operating.
If you read Alaris's accounts ad an example for the past few years you see that their 'growth' in industry size is actually mainly price rises (gouging?). They use film to offset their imaging losses.
And also the order from abroad is also the consider factor to the decision of reproduction
Just to clarify: there was a brief period of around 2 years when Lucky was part of a joint venture with a few other Chinese companies and indeed Kodak, but this ended also in the early 2000s. Since that time, AFAIK Kodak has not been directly involved in Lucky's operations and no technology transfer took place anymore.lucky was cooperated with Kodak since 2000s
In turn, this will depend on shipping, taxes & duties. However, experience with other goods shows that Chinese pricing tends to be very competitive.
My main concern with Lucky film is not so much about the coating as such or the volumes they can turn out, nor that the emulsion itself will be as experimental as something like Phoenix or Orwo. My concern is that in order to keep complexity and cost down, essential elements will be missing that result in poor archival stability and premature fading of the processed negatives. This is also a major problem with Lucky's photo paper, where they show extremely little interest in what happens with the prints as soon as they roll out of the machine. I'm afraid they may make similarly short-sighted decisions with regards to their color film. In that case, initial results may seem fine, but problems will start to manifest themselves in the following years - a time bomb, in a way.
One reason I'm particularly concerned about this is the fact that many film photographers today are committed to a hybrid process, where they have the film scanned and then reject or no longer require the negatives. This may lead Lucky to believe it's perfectly fine if the negatives don't last. For photographers who do want to come back later to their negatives to either optically print or re-scan them, this would be a very unfortunate turn of events. And the main problem is that we'll probably only find out when it's too late.
Just to clarify: there was a brief period of around 2 years when Lucky was part of a joint venture with a few other Chinese companies and indeed Kodak, but this ended also in the early 2000s. Since that time, AFAIK Kodak has not been directly involved in Lucky's operations and no technology transfer took place anymore.
First Lucky has no common with phoenix(toy film)
In turn, this will depend on shipping, taxes & duties. However, experience with other goods shows that Chinese pricing tends to be very competitive.
If there is any relation with the distribution of the Shanghai films - I would not be very convinced about the prospects...
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