China Lucky to resume color negative film production in 2024

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MattKing

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Was it a cliff drop and if so over what period? Unless that period was only a matter of weeks or a few months was there nothing that the major manufacturer such as Kodak could have done such as cutting out shifts, 4 or 3 day week working or voluntary redundancy etc to curtain production such that production then failed to meet the downward trend of demand slowing which was then met by its stock of film which had been already made

The cliff drop argument is superficially sound and may be deeply sound if the demand did say suddenly drop "overnight" i.e a matter of weeks or months and film stocks made in the boom time of only a few weeks previously were about to reach expiry dates but can that really be what the situation was?

Do the facts really support this cliff drop argument and if so what were the numbers backing this argument


pentaxuser

Eastman Kodak and all of its international subsidiaries was, before the implosion of the market, a relatively small manufacturer, with a very large international marketing and distribution organization.
It wasn't the costs associated with manufacturing that drove it into bankruptcy back then. Just as it isn't just current manufacturing costs that cause the current high prices.
 

PolyFilmLabs

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I hope this as well as Ilford's new color offering provide downward pressure on prices. Now if someone could produce an inexpensive general use E-6 like Sensia...

If you are in the UK we actually re spool ektachrome from the large 1000ft motion pic rolls!

'REAL' E100 36exp sells for £26 here where we can sell it for £16-£18 depending on our site vs Ebay (fees).

Cheaper than Portra :smile:
 

koraks

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Was it a cliff drop and if so over what period? Unless that period was only a matter of weeks or a few months was there nothing that the major manufacturer such as Kodak could have done such as cutting out shifts, 4 or 3 day week working or voluntary redundancy etc to curtain production such that production then failed to meet the downward trend of demand slowing which was then met by its stock of film which had been already made

Yes, it was a precipitous cliff drop that happened in the span of months. For instance, Fuji here in The Netherlands had a massive amount of stock and until this day, this stock is being sold by a local entrepreneur who bought the contents of a cold-store warehouse. Mostly film from the 2004-2005 era.

Everybody saw this coming for years, but when it happened, it was far more sudden than anyone expected. When this happened, there was only limited possibility to dial down cost. Yes, you can shut down production lines, saving on material costs and energy. Labor is already more inflexible, depending on where you're producing; it's easier to mass-fire people in the US than it is in Europe, the UK or Japan. The tangible assets as such were a sunk cost and capital costs don't disappear overnight - or indeed, at all. The entire production system was geared and financed to churn out hundreds of millions of rolls per annum. When the cliff drop occurred, the only way to offset a tiny bit of the costs was to produce at cut-throat prices.

Do the facts really support this cliff drop argument

Yes; talk to anyone in the industry. It was unprecedented carnage.
 

pentaxuser

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Some observations on my part based on your reply:

It seems that everybody saw this coming for years. If that included Kodak then surely it must have been able to take some action such as mass firing in the U.S. which you have said is easier but as I mentioned there were several other courses of action as well which can instantly lower costs

How many years' stock did a company like Kodak keep in reserve? Was it still producing that level when it met the cliff drop and is so why? Was it not part of everybody who saw it coming

Was the cut throat price you mention less than the cost of producing the product and if it was then surely this added to the cost rather than offset it this making the position worse?

Did Fuji not have to do the same as Kodak and if so but with lots of other non film products to sustain them why did Fuji not simply stop film production for good in 2004/5?

There may be a complete explanation of exactly what led to the price drop, how big the price drop was and why Kodak eventually went into bankruptcy but then arose from the ashes as a suitably downsized organisation but I don't think we any of us have seen all the information of this or even enough of it to be able to join all the dots completely

pentaxuser
 

MCB18

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There were persons very keen on Lucky 200, I never tried it personally. I suppose just 35 mm, no 120...

I have talked to someone who has visited the lucky factory, and they say that Lucky does have a 120 machine, and that they are either currently producing or are about to start production of 120 film.
 
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I have talked to someone who has visited the lucky factory, and they say that Lucky does have a 120 machine, and that they are either currently producing or are about to start production of 120 film.

Probably a stretch...but any hope of 220 as well?
 

MattKing

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Some observations on my part based on your reply:

It seems that everybody saw this coming for years. If that included Kodak then surely it must have been able to take some action such as mass firing in the U.S. which you have said is easier but as I mentioned there were several other courses of action as well which can instantly lower costs

How many years' stock did a company like Kodak keep in reserve? Was it still producing that level when it met the cliff drop and is so why? Was it not part of everybody who saw it coming

Was the cut throat price you mention less than the cost of producing the product and if it was then surely this added to the cost rather than offset it this making the position worse?

Did Fuji not have to do the same as Kodak and if so but with lots of other non film products to sustain them why did Fuji not simply stop film production for good in 2004/5?

There may be a complete explanation of exactly what led to the price drop, how big the price drop was and why Kodak eventually went into bankruptcy but then arose from the ashes as a suitably downsized organisation but I don't think we any of us have seen all the information of this or even enough of it to be able to join all the dots completely

pentaxuser

The fall off the cliff happened at the retail and end user end first, and the abrupt nature of the fall came as a surprise.
Most projections were that the transition would be gradual. That is where the APS program came in - with film and sensor sizes the same.
It wasn't really inventories of stock that were the problem. It was inventories of people. Relatively large numbers of well paid employees with vested financial entitlements spread over the entire globe.
Only a small percentage of those employees were in the manufacturing parts of the company. And many of the remaining employees in the manufacturing side were no longer involved with photographic film manufacture or even photography related businesses at all.
Eastman Kodak has done a fair amount of re-purposing their coating resources to non-photographic purposes. For example, they use it for making components used in electronic circuits. Fuji did the same in other areas. Many of the competitors didn't survive, or went into bankruptcy/receivership and came back as a tiny version of themselves - e.g. Harman/Ilford.
 

koraks

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How many years' stock did a company like Kodak keep in reserve?

IDK and it doesn't matter much since excess stock was not the primary explanatory factor for the low prices. The primary mechanism was a production capacity that ended up being one or two orders of magnitude bigger than market demand.

Was the cut throat price you mention less than the cost of producing the product

Cost calculations are difficult/complex. I call them 'cut throat' prices because they were unsustainable. They were insufficient to meet total cost of maintaining the production capacity, and using the small percentage of that capacity.

Did Fuji not have to do the same as Kodak and if so but with lots of other non film products to sustain them why did Fuji not simply stop film production for good in 2004/5?

They did for the most part. Fuji was producing 35mm film by the truckloads in The Netherlands up to 2004, serving a large part of the globe from that plant. At that point, they shut down that line and dismantled the building. It's a vacant lot now. I've walked past it many times. The confectioning building is still there, but it's now used for totally different products (biotech/healthcare related; growth markets).
Fuji attempted to diversify in the early 2000s in anticipation of the silver halide crash and eventually (after some hiccups) became successful in a few markets. Up to 2004-2006 they were largely dependent on silver halide products. One of the reasons they survived is that they make products that are used in e.g. LCD screens, and that business exploded about as rapidly as photographic film plummeted, and around the same time, too. They lucked out with that one.

In Japan, they also shut down production lines and in all likelihood dismantled some of them.

As to why they didn't exit entirely - it's likely a combination of factors. Pride and commitment play a role; they were/are pretty adamant about wanting to be the 'last man standing' in silver halide technology; their previous CEO said this literally. Moreover, photographic film production involves a technology base and manufacturing competencies to which "use or or lose it" applies (as with all knowledge & competencies!) - it's likely that they've kept producing film for strategic purposes. Instax shows furthermore that there was business sense to it, too; they're making good money on that. And then there's an effect that could probably be best expressed as "social inertia": if you have a group of a couple of thousand people who have been doing something for a couple of decades, you'll find that they simply keep doing it for as long as humanly possible. Patterns perpetuate themselves; it's a bit like a rock that won't suddenly stop falling midway in the air. As long as it doesn't hit anything, it'll keep falling. If it hits the water, it'll receive a lot more resistance, which will slow it down, but it'll still sink. Social structures show similar characteristics; they also perpetuate.

There may be a complete explanation of exactly what led to the price drop, how big the price drop was and why Kodak eventually went into bankruptcy but then arose from the ashes as a suitably downsized organisation

Of course there's an explanation. It happened, after all, and no magic was involved.
I'm not sure what dots you're trying to connect and for what purpose. Like I said, the mechanism in terms of the price drop boiled down to the simple fact that digital took over. Film business dropped precipitously and since it was (still is!!) an industry optimized for large volumes and high efficiency, things didn't pan out, resulting in a race to the bottom. You have to understand that you don't just dial down production capacity by 10% or 20% on a film manufacturing enterprise. A single coating line will coat such vast amounts of product that even a big plant doesn't have all that many of them. The Fuji plant in The Netherlands was literally a single line, and that one line coated millions upon millions of rolls annually. You physically can't cut that capacity in half. You either have it, or you don't.

Anyway, Fuji got away with it and basically said "f... the whole analog film stuff, we're going to make money off of something else", Agfa tried to get into medical as well as they could (quasi-successfully) and Kodak - well, Kodak tried, but they didn't make it as we all know. The Kodak miracle is that they somehow limped out of the grave after writing off tens of billions through their bankruptcy.

Nobody was in a position to fundamentally change their business structure to cater to the new reality of tiny volumes because this required a destruction of capital combined with an unprecedented act of corporate harakiri. It's literally the same as handing a person a machete and asking them very kindly to chop off both legs and the other arm. If you ask a company to restructure so it can basically shrink by 80-90% in the course of 2 years, you'll find that it just doesn't happen, even if 100% of the organization agrees it's the only way. The reasons for this encompass the full gamut of dimensions of a business, ranging from ownership, financial structure, human resources, assets, social embeddedness/stakeholders, etc. etc.

I don't think we any of us have seen all the information of this or even enough of it to be able to join all the dots completely
This is a bit like remarking to a pilot "but you see, since you don't really understand quantum physics, you're not really capable of entirely figuring out why this plane flies..." and yet, the pilot manages to land the damn thing safely. Apparently he knows enough to get by. So much has been published on this. If you find it interesting, why don't you do some reading?

It was inventories of people.

And financial structure. You can't simply call your shareholders and ask them kindly if it's OK that you're going to allow 90% of their investment to evaporate in the next 6 months or so. People tend to get a little angry if you do that with their savings, so instead, you try to do the best job you can in holding the sinking ship afloat even if you're perfectly aware you're riding the Titanic.
 

MCB18

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Probably a stretch...but any hope of 220 as well?

No. At least not in big volume like 120. That same friend went to Shanghai and their 220 production is only slightly more sophisticated than mine, basically they just have more people in the dark, and more precise jigs. All 220 is handmade, no machines are currently operating.
 

loccdor

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If you are in the UK we actually re spool ektachrome from the large 1000ft motion pic rolls!

'REAL' E100 36exp sells for £26 here where we can sell it for £16-£18 depending on our site vs Ebay (fees).

Cheaper than Portra :smile:

Thanks for the information. I'm in the USA - we get official metal DX cassettes of 36 exp E100 for $19 at the cheapest, maybe a dollar or two less for the plastic non-DX cassettes or from bulk rollers.

Portra 800 is about $18, Portra 160/400 are more like $13-$15. Not sure why Portra is more expensive than E100 in the UK.
 

loccdor

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No. At least not in big volume like 120. That same friend went to Shanghai and their 220 production is only slightly more sophisticated than mine, basically they just have more people in the dark, and more precise jigs. All 220 is handmade, no machines are currently operating.

Interesting, that is what I thought when I saw Shanghai's tape on their 220 paper. It always has a different angle, not regular like a machine.
 

loccdor

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Detailed responses with a lot of knowledge, @koraks and @MattKing, thanks.

Anyway, I just ordered my first 10 rolls of Phoenix, I'm doing my part!
 

Agulliver

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If you are in the UK we actually re spool ektachrome from the large 1000ft motion pic rolls!

'REAL' E100 36exp sells for £26 here where we can sell it for £16-£18 depending on our site vs Ebay (fees).

Cheaper than Portra :smile:

Good to see you back (I was conversing with you via Facebook the other day)

I purchased some Ektachrome from you when you first appeared....and promptly lost it! Only the gods know where it is, I've looked everywhere. I just hope I do find it before it deteriorates. The 800T I also got from you was all good so I can vouch for your products.

As for film sales falling off a cliff, from everything I have read that is what happened. A tail off over time was predicted but nobody within the industry realised that demand for film would collapse within the space of a few months. It hit everyone, manufacturers, staff, retailers, chemical manufacturers.
 
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PE had some first hand insight about the situation, and I really enjoyed the contemporary long winding threads of industry discussions with his voice:
Kodak's technological forecasting (done by analog engineers) said that digital would not become relevant until 2020. I was among those who disagreed and pointed out that Moore's law was not taken into account in this (among other problems such as chemists talking about electronics). I was actually sworn at by a Kodak manager which was actually a very very rare thing at EK. I was asked to get out of his office.

Kodak handled all digital R&D very poorly.

PE
The downtrend took everyone in the conventional photo industry by surprise, Eastman Kodak included. The rate has also been faster than anyone predicted at any company, and has led to what we are discussing here. If any company could have predicted it to any degree of accuracy, Agfa, Ilford and the others would not be having these financical difficulties. They would have been able to cope with a gradual downturn if they had been able to accurately predict it. So, if you are going to cast blame, spread it around evenly.

In fact, I would bet that Fuji is in worse shape than we know, but that the Japanese government is aiding them as it does many companies in Japan.

I just wish them all good luck. They are going to need it.

PE
All chemicals used in color systems are custom synthesized by Kodak or Fuji in their own labs. Some companies may contract out synthesis, such as Ferrania. Agfa made their own or bought some from IG Farben. They are expensive and hard to make. Coating them is not easy either as it takes equipment far more sophisticated than at least Efke has at present. Even Ilford tried and then exited the market years ago.

So color will not be a "cottage" industry if it ever vanishes.

I believe that a form of dye bleach or a 3 color system may exist in the future, but I really cannot say as these chemicals are also so hard to get.

PE


As of Lucky, it will be interesting if they open up distribution. They can capture a bit of C41 if it is priced right as well as claiming back a chunk of photographers that are shooting respooled Motion Picture film. I believe the latter market has thrived lately just because of the high cost of C41, and so many "new films" popped up which are just respooled Vision 3 products.
220 for some uses would be wonderful, but basically the only solution is manual spooling. If would be interesting if Lucky makes films available in 120.
No. At least not in big volume like 120. That same friend went to Shanghai and their 220 production is only slightly more sophisticated than mine, basically they just have more people in the dark, and more precise jigs. All 220 is handmade, no machines are currently operating.
 

PolyFilmLabs

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This is true re the cost being the thing that switched people right. Once labs caught wind of ecn2 processing being a need, a remarkable amount invested in addition machines like the Jobo ATLs and modern versions.

All to ensure they could adapt and offer ECN2 for the new film. The shortages in C41 also helped that trend.


The fact of the matter is this. It's cheaper for us to buy bulk rolls, use our ex cinema machines to accurately cut them down to 100ft, re package them or respool them etc, make a small margin to keep the lights on AND sell it for 7.50 (Vision3)

The cinestill equivalent is 16.00 less the remjet. This all points to a few possible things 1) contract manufacturing with Kodak is expensive either due to the smaller runs or the finishing (cartridges) process or 2) these distributors i.e Alaris and Cinestill make a huge margin.
3) they don't but the retailers do...


If you read Alaris's accounts ad an example for the past few years you see that their 'growth' in industry size is actually mainly price rises (gouging?). They use film to offset their imaging losses.


Until recently of course when they probably realised their pricing has reached the peak of elasticity and brought it down in some products.

The same is true on motion pic film re distributors. In the UK Frame24 bought the distribution rights some time ago and thus most motion pic film had their distributor mark up added on. The amount of middlemen (or women) in the film chain is horrid for end consumers.
 

koraks

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If you read Alaris's accounts ad an example for the past few years you see that their 'growth' in industry size is actually mainly price rises (gouging?). They use film to offset their imaging losses.

Uh?

1716714298503.png

These are Alaris' revenue (blue), gross profit (green) and net loss (red) from 2015 to 2023. What 'growth' are we talking about? All that's been happening over the past couple of years is (1) a pretty dramatic impact of the sales of PPD (paper, chemistry) which cut back revenues, but cut back net losses much more, and (2) recovery from COVID which evidently impacted the kiosks quite dramatically.

Furthermore, if you read the notes on the development of revenue figures over the past few years, you'll see that they mention price increases as well as increasing volumes as explanations for increasing revenues (it's pretty much impossible to separate the two based on their figures), but also that about half of the growth in revenue is due to the growth in consumables for their kiosks. So I'm not sure what "imaging losses" you refer to, but in reality, both film and other imaging activities (e.g. kiosks) finance the constant stream of losses that for a large part track down to devaluation of assets, capital expenditures (loans) - and yes, continued R&D. Note that the film business is excluded from R&D, devaluation and capital expenditure because anything happening in this domain would pop up in Eastman Kodak's reports, not Alaris'. So arguing that 'film finances other losses' is an inherently flawed analysis.
 

czygeorge

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Hi all
I think i may need to make some explanation

First Lucky has no common with phoenix(toy film)
Lucky has very mature technology,lucky was cooperated with Kodak since 2000s,its film and paper manufacture line should be last generation of kodak (but you know quality control not very stable,but could use)

And also it is the representation of China's film and other silver material(xray, paper etc.) technology and manufacturer too.Lucky produce color film since 1980s

And the second is because of this, Lucky is actually equivalent to the Kodak-level production line

Once the production opened, it will be million rolls level. So no matter if it will cause Kodak's price reduction, it still very possible to make some change to the market

And also the order from abroad is also the consider factor to the decision of reproduction
 

koraks

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And also the order from abroad is also the consider factor to the decision of reproduction

In turn, this will depend on shipping, taxes & duties. However, experience with other goods shows that Chinese pricing tends to be very competitive.

My main concern with Lucky film is not so much about the coating as such or the volumes they can turn out, nor that the emulsion itself will be as experimental as something like Phoenix or Orwo. My concern is that in order to keep complexity and cost down, essential elements will be missing that result in poor archival stability and premature fading of the processed negatives. This is also a major problem with Lucky's photo paper, where they show extremely little interest in what happens with the prints as soon as they roll out of the machine. I'm afraid they may make similarly short-sighted decisions with regards to their color film. In that case, initial results may seem fine, but problems will start to manifest themselves in the following years - a time bomb, in a way.

One reason I'm particularly concerned about this is the fact that many film photographers today are committed to a hybrid process, where they have the film scanned and then reject or no longer require the negatives. This may lead Lucky to believe it's perfectly fine if the negatives don't last. For photographers who do want to come back later to their negatives to either optically print or re-scan them, this would be a very unfortunate turn of events. And the main problem is that we'll probably only find out when it's too late.

lucky was cooperated with Kodak since 2000s
Just to clarify: there was a brief period of around 2 years when Lucky was part of a joint venture with a few other Chinese companies and indeed Kodak, but this ended also in the early 2000s. Since that time, AFAIK Kodak has not been directly involved in Lucky's operations and no technology transfer took place anymore.
 

czygeorge

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In turn, this will depend on shipping, taxes & duties. However, experience with other goods shows that Chinese pricing tends to be very competitive.

My main concern with Lucky film is not so much about the coating as such or the volumes they can turn out, nor that the emulsion itself will be as experimental as something like Phoenix or Orwo. My concern is that in order to keep complexity and cost down, essential elements will be missing that result in poor archival stability and premature fading of the processed negatives. This is also a major problem with Lucky's photo paper, where they show extremely little interest in what happens with the prints as soon as they roll out of the machine. I'm afraid they may make similarly short-sighted decisions with regards to their color film. In that case, initial results may seem fine, but problems will start to manifest themselves in the following years - a time bomb, in a way.

One reason I'm particularly concerned about this is the fact that many film photographers today are committed to a hybrid process, where they have the film scanned and then reject or no longer require the negatives. This may lead Lucky to believe it's perfectly fine if the negatives don't last. For photographers who do want to come back later to their negatives to either optically print or re-scan them, this would be a very unfortunate turn of events. And the main problem is that we'll probably only find out when it's too late.


Just to clarify: there was a brief period of around 2 years when Lucky was part of a joint venture with a few other Chinese companies and indeed Kodak, but this ended also in the early 2000s. Since that time, AFAIK Kodak has not been directly involved in Lucky's operations and no technology transfer took place anymore.

So true Koraks
Actually those old lab who runs noritsu and minilab for 20+years also know that Lucky film''s quality control are not steady(has difference between batchs,also photo paper)

I think it could't work on professional job(like commercial shooting) too.But can just buy cheap and shoot for fun and produce just-fine image😂(And but also it need cheap C-41 process price to supply it.The Lucky's own lab C-41 Dev and Scan only needs about 2-3usds)

Now there still have hundreds of chemical ingredients are needed to be implemented in Lucky's color negative producing.Hope they could do it well:smile:
 

pentaxuser

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First Lucky has no common with phoenix(toy film)

Can I ask; Is the above quote referring to Harman Phoenix and can you clarify what you mean by toy film?

I think I know the answers to both my questions but I do not want to make any wrong assumptions about what I think you mean

Thanks

pentaxuser
 

mshchem

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I suspect Lucky is looking at the huge market IN China to justify film production. I certainly am no expert, but it's good to have a domestic producer. Tariffs and all that sort.
 

lamerko

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In turn, this will depend on shipping, taxes & duties. However, experience with other goods shows that Chinese pricing tends to be very competitive.

If there is any relation with the distribution of the Shanghai films - I would not be very convinced about the prospects...
 

czygeorge

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If there is any relation with the distribution of the Shanghai films - I would not be very convinced about the prospects...

No it won't, the ShangHai(its distributor) has very bad reputation in China too😂
 

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I've just seen a social media post from Nik & Trick (UK retailer) that they will be stocking Lucky SHD 100 colour film in 120 format "straight from source" at £6 a roll.

They also state that there has been investment from Kodak in this, and that it is new fresh film.
 
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