Wayne, if your film speed is pretty close already, you just need to determine how much more development time is necessary. We are splitting hairs here when it isn't really necessary. If you already have decent shadow values, increased development won't hurt them at all. To pick a number out of thin air (sorry, use efke not ilford) I would try 10%, 20% and 30% as your points of departure. This will give you a range of vlaues, one of which should be very close. Remember, it is the print value we want, not the density number in mathematical terms of density, opacity or anything else.
The reason I mentioned BTZS type exposure numbers is their ability to give a 1:1 plot of development times with respect to scene brightness for a good print. This will only work for one film, paper & developer combination, but it will work. The SBR number for exposure is simply the highlight value minus the shadow value, added to 5 (the paper's range). Let's say you have a scene in which your highlights fall on ev 15 and shadows fall on ev 11. 15 - 11 = 4, so now you would just add 4 + 5 to get an SBR number or 9. This is your SBR number for the shot. If you don't have a spot meter, just use whatever meter you have and get a highlight reading. Do the same thing with shadows and count the number of stops between high and low values. This is the range of values you have to work with in light.
Get a peice of graph paper and on the left side (x-axis) mark SBR numbers from 5 to 12 in 1/2" increments, 5 being closest to the bottom, 12 being at the top. Do the same thing on the bottom (y-axis) with time. Use increments which are marked each half inch with short times being at the left (closest to the x-axis), go from 5 minutes out to the right as far as you can.
Draw a faint horizontal line from the left on the x-axis at SBR 9. Do your development tests to determine the correct time for this SBR 9 number and mark it on the lower (y-axis) at the corresponding time. Where the SBR 9 meets the time for your known print value of time, you have a correct development time. If you will keep track of SBR numbers and development times, a "curve" will be the result which can then be drawn in with a french curve. This is all there is to the whole business. Once you have a plot of this curve, record the SBR for each scene. Decide how much contrast is necessary for the print and stay with the development time.
Even if your eyeball is off a bit, the plot of a line through these points is the average of all of the times. Close enough for what we need to get a decent print. Best, tim
P.S. If you have any questions about this plotting business, please pm me off list.
P.P.S. Apologies to those BTZS people for my mutilation of Phil's studies.