What is the market size for film?

[ChrisGalway]

Does anyone have any idea of the market size for 35mm and 120 film (not Instax / instant)? I'm prompted to ask because of a comment made on another thread that "the market for colour is much bigger than B&W".

Perhaps it can be broken down worldwide into colour neg, colour pos (very small!), and B&W?

10 million rolls /year? 100 million? I realise after a lifetime in photography that I have no idea of the market size!

 

[BrianShaw]

I realise after a lifetime in photography that I have no idea of the market size!

In what feels like a lifetime of participating in Photrio (and it's predecessor), I realize that nobody seems to really know the answer in a quantifiable way... despite occasional self-claims of insider insights.

 

[brbo]

I'd guess 40-50m rolls.

 

[Alan Edward Klein]

Oh about a dozen or two fresh rolls. Everyone else is using dated film.

 

[cmacd123]

Dave at flic film did post in a video that he had a single customer who had him load 60,000 rolls... But the next day he revised the video to drop out that bit of information. he does say he can load 4000rolls a day, but of course that does not indicate if that is actually what he is doing every day. Dave seems to be one of the folks who tries to be very open with what he is doing compared to the average supplier. that could be that he gets a kick out of being a disruptive force.

I infer that the Big Customer is the one firm that is having trouble getting metal cassettes.

all the other suppliers tend to hold anything related to sales quite close to their chest.

of course their are market research folks who will let you subscribe to the figures that they have gathered for 10,000 dollars or so under a non disclosure agreement.

 

[Sandro.m]

In theory, it should be possible to calculate the market value at production by summing up the revenue of film producers. They are not so many. Balance sheet are usually public.

 

[koraks]

In theory, it should be possible to calculate the market value at production by summing up the revenue of film producers. They are not so many. Balance sheet are usually public.

Welcome to Photrio!

In theory, yes. In practice, this doesn't work for a host of factors, that boil down to two problems ultimately:
* Some annual figures actually not being public (e.g. Foma).
* The remaining reports are not specific enough (intentionally so, in all likelihood) to convert these figures into rolls of film.

You might want to ask @Henning Serger about this.

 

[MattKing]

As the major film producers make large portions of their revenue on products that, while sharing production resources with their photographic film products, aren't actually photographic films, I don't think we will ever see or be able to deduce those numbers, unless the manufacturers and/or distributors choose to share them.
Eastman Kodak, for example, uses their coating technology to make electronic circuits.

 

[Arcadia4]

Estimate of total sales in millions of rolls with credit to Mirko, Adox taken from -

 

[Arcadia4]

However some estimates, place the peak sales at lot higher at 960m rolls, such as this one;

Story of Kodak: How They Could Have Saved The Business - Ignition Framework

Few business cases are as rich with soaring success and abrupt failure than the story of Kodak. What was once considered a hub of technological wizardry suddenly became a bankrupt institution with little hope of surviving much longer into the future. All of this begs the question – what...

www.ignitionframework.com

And kodaks alaris 2018 annual report they said 17 millions 35mm rolls were produced in 2017

 

[Alan Edward Klein]

However some estimates, place the peak sales at lot higher at 960m rolls, such as this one;

Story of Kodak: How They Could Have Saved The Business - Ignition Framework

Few business cases are as rich with soaring success and abrupt failure than the story of Kodak. What was once considered a hub of technological wizardry suddenly became a bankrupt institution with little hope of surviving much longer into the future. All of this begs the question – what...

www.ignitionframework.com

And kodaks alaris 2018 annual report they said 17 millions 35mm rolls were produced in 2017

View attachment 372716

2017 is seven years ago. Isn't there more recent data?

 

[MattKing]

Even back in its heyday, information regarding sales and processing volumes was closely guarded.
Between 1961 and 1983 my father was a senior manager, including full responsibility for all Customer Services at a Kodak Canada Kodachrome and Ektachrome processing facility in North Vancouver, BC Canada. He was never privy to what their exact processing volumes were, because that information was compartmentalized, and shared only with those who absolutely needed to know.
That was how the information flow was structured - because if competitors had that information, it would be advantageous for them.

 

[ChrisGalway]

You've got to laugh: if I want to know something about a really big market, like cell/mobile phones, I can find (accurate) information all over the place, for example

Smartphone sales worldwide 2007-2023| Statista

In 2021 almost 1.5 billion smartphones were sold to end users worldwide. In the fourth quarter nearly 25% of all smartphones sold were Apple.

www.statista.com

but if I want to know anything about some piddling little market, like photographic film, it's "impossible" to find it! Small minds are everywhere!

 

[Chan Tran]

I don't know but back in the 80's and 90's the market for color is much bigger than B&W but today I am not sure. A lot of people who shoot film today do B&W. If B&W is not more than color at least the percentage is much greater than in the 80's or 90's.

 

[BrianShaw]

... that information was compartmentalized, and shared only with those who absolutely needed to know

That was how the information flow was structured - because if competitors had that information, it would be advantageous for them.

And if stock holders had the information they might find out just how much corporate earning reports can be manipulated. Interestingly, it's no different with not-for-profits... just no stock holders involved.

 

[MattKing]

You've got to laugh: if I want to know something about a really big market, like cell/mobile phones, I can find (accurate) information all over the place, for example

Smartphone sales worldwide 2007-2023| Statista

In 2021 almost 1.5 billion smartphones were sold to end users worldwide. In the fourth quarter nearly 25% of all smartphones sold were Apple.

www.statista.com

but if I want to know anything about some piddling little market, like photographic film, it's "impossible" to find it! Small minds are everywhere!

It's more likely that the information about film sales isn't worth much money or of interest to governments/regulatory agencies.
Who has the financial clout to devote the resources to seeking out and analyzing that information about film? I would say no-one.

 

[MattKing]

A lot of the information about film sales was from a time when spending money on film actually was an included item in cost-of-living reports. Those days are long gone.

 

[brbo]

I don't know but back in the 80's and 90's the market for color is much bigger than B&W but today I am not sure. A lot of people who shoot film today do B&W. If B&W is not more than color at least the percentage is much greater than in the 80's or 90's.

BW bigger than colour?! No, and it's not even close.

I've heard a lot of people saying it's about 1:10. But those are people from labs and larger stores, so they are probably underestimating BW usage a bit since BW can easily be processed at home and BW people also use smaller shops, buy bulk rolls etc. Still, I would be very surprised if BW was close to 20% of the entire film market.

 

[mshchem]

As long as the moviemakers are using film we will have color still film. Without it would be Ilford and Adox, maybe consumer color junk from China.

 

[Chan Tran]

BW bigger than colour?! No, and it's not even close.

I've heard a lot of people saying it's about 1:10. But those are people from labs and larger stores, so they are probably underestimating BW usage a bit since BW can easily be processed at home and BW people also use smaller shops, buy bulk rolls etc. Still, I would be very surprised if BW was close to 20% of the entire film market.

With the difficulty of having the film processed in a lab today you basically have to do mail order. Hard to get a 1hr. shop any more. DIY color processing is beyond the scope of most people but not B&W. Back in the 80's if you have the lab do your B&W it would cost you the same as color and I guess it's the same now but doing it yourself is quite inexpensive with B&W. So there are more B&W users than the labs know about and not so with color.

 

[Alan Edward Klein]

How much silver is in film? How much does it affect its cost?

 

[MattKing]

How much silver is in film? How much does it affect its cost?

A small amount. A bit, but relatively little.
Much, much less, for example, than the cost for backing paper on a roll of 120 film.

 

[brbo]

How much does it affect its cost?

A little when its price goes up and not at all when it goes down.

 

[loccdor]

A lot of the information about film sales was from a time when spending money on film actually was an included item in cost-of-living reports. Those days are long gone.

I've developed a problem where I need to include it in my own personal cost of living report.

 

[ChrisGalway]

I've developed a problem where I need to include it in my own personal cost of living report.

Same here, film-rich (in freezer) but cash-poor at present.