Jana;
1. Color film coating for amateur use is being supported, for the most part, by motion picture film production. If the motion picture industry converts to digital, there will be no compelling reason to continue to make the relatively small volume of film for other uses. Now, I admit that 100 - 200 million cameras full of 35mm film may seem a lot, but consider that this came from a 42 inch (~3.5 meter) roll which is 5000 ft long (sorry, I'm tired converting). At current coating speeds this could probably be made in less than a day! So, supporting a facility that is to be open 24/7/365 becomes problematical.
Ron,
you are simplifying. And you look always at Kodak. Fuji is not as dependant on motion film as Kodak is.
1. It's a lot more still film, not only for single use cameras. AFAIK last year 800 mio.(CIPA numbers) in addition to single use, and in addition to the colour film production of Lucky, which is not included in these numbers.
Even if the motion picture industry will convert to digital in the future, they will not convert completely.
Most of us would agree that the motion picture industry converted to colour film some decades ago. Nevertheless BW motion film is still manufactured in great numbers. That is the main business of Filmotec for example.
Your look is too static, you look at the current production structures at Kodak. But markets are dynamic, flexible and very inventive in Hayeks sense (Wettbewerb als Such- und Entdeckungsverfahren).
If there is demand, there will be supply. The film manufacturers think according to their market research that we will see a stabilisation in about five to seven years (probably in the 400-700 mio range).
Even if the motion film production would be completely stopped (which is rather unlikely, in the TV industry lots of productions are made with film, too; Arri has developed new film cameras), it is economically reasonable to invest in new, smaller machinery with capacities fitting to the lower, but quite stable demand, especially if the old machinery is depreciated.
That is the economic challenge. It is difficult, but it is possible. I have very good contact to the paper industry, which have similar structures. In some special areas there have been similar transformation processes, and we've made the experience that such transformation in capacities due to much lower demand is possible, when demand has stabilised.
Perhaps in 15 years Kodak is coating film not in four plants as today, but only in one or two. Perhaps the film division will be outsourced, perhaps we will see a management buy out or other changes in the structures.....
But it is not inevitable that film production has to be stopped due to lower demand.
Ron, I hold you in very high regard for your knowledge in film technology and your engagement here on apug. I said it once, I say it twice: you are an excellent engineer.
But your knowledge in economics and market analysis is not so good. You were wrong with your assessments in this areas several times. So with the research at Ilford, the resurrection of Agfa MCC/MCP, the new T-Max 400.
You have often explained to us that such a project like the resurrection of the Agfa papers is so difficult, technologically and economically, that it is nearly impossible.
From my (economic) knowledge and experience in industry transformation processes like these we see in the photographic industry are hard challenges indeed, but they offer new chances and possibilities for flexible enterprises as well. Quite a lot is possible with the right staff and ideas.
2. Research on digital printing is directed towards solving the problems you cite..
I have worked in research for some years. Research activity is an completely open process. Success is not guarenteed. Sometimes you have success, sometimes you fail.
Hundreds of reaserches are working on nuclear fusion for decades. And it is still only a hope....
And don't forget that Kodak and Fuji (Ilford, Foma, Inoviscoat, too) are working on improvements of classical photo paper as well. Fuji has built a totally new research center. Fuji has said that most of the research there is about analogue materials.
You simply do not understand.
Sorry.
PE
Oh no, I understand your argumentation very well. But I think you miss some relevant economic points. And your argumentation is static (problem of linear thinking) and based only on Kodak. From my economic knowledge and experience there are more options and possible solutions. This year I've talked to some employees from different film manufacturers. They have confirmed my assessment. They are convinced that we will see a stabilisation and then a little retro trend back to film. And they said it is possible to adopt the capacities to the expected demand. For some it will be easier, for some it will be more difficult. And all are working on technology to support these transformation processes.
Dear Ron, I think it does not make much sense for us to continue this discussion here.
Let's wait. In 10 or 15 years we both will know.....
.
Best regards,
Jana