Where do you see Analogue photography in (say) 20 years time ?

pdeeh · Sep 4, 2014

Nuff said:
I think the big difference you will find is that people around here know more about art, photographers etc, not just megapixels and technical specifications of their cameras while arguing over DOF equivalence.

If you don't think digital is relevant to the discussion, why bring an utterly absurd statement like this into it?

Simon Howers · Sep 4, 2014

Dogus Utkucu said:
Hello everyone,

I don't know if this was ever a discussion in another thread but since I am moving myself towards film these days (even though it is very slowly) I was wondering what is your assumption for the future of analogue photography.
I will make my own assumptions based on whatever I learned so far which is profoundly little so please be patient with me.

For a discussion on any activity which relies upon manufactured articles, I suggest you read a copy of Roger Hicks' essay
"Carriage Whip Manufacturers" which deals with a shrinking manufacturing base for a 'niche' item. Essentially it postulates
that any item manufactured in any quantity will still be made somewhere in the world but the manufacturing base will shrink
to a much smaller number of traders. What you, the customer, will lose is any economy of scale i.e. things get more expensive.

Nuff · Sep 4, 2014

pdeeh said:
If you don't think digital is relevant to the discussion, why bring an utterly absurd statement like this into it?

Read the post I quoted.

Jaf-Photo · Sep 4, 2014

The key for me is that digital photography tries so much to look like film.

Ben Stiller explained that he shot Walter Mitty with film because so much work is put into making digital look like film. So why not use the real thing?

Sooner or later people will look back at the iconic photos of the 20th century and understand the true value of film.

Hopefully there will be some films left to rescue then.

No doubt

RalphLambrecht · Sep 4, 2014

benjiboy said:
Sorry I've mislaid my crystal ball.

I've got two of them and always with me but none of them are crystal.
sorry about that .in 20 years my current cameras will all be fit to be displayed in a photographic museum while still fully functionalbut noo film will be available.paper negatives will celebrate a big comeback for LFcamerasand the art of the darkroom will only be preserved in books,which is a good thingbecause, the price of water will be higher than gasolineand washing a film or a print will get you into jail if not prison;same for dumping processing chemicals

moose10101 · Sep 4, 2014

I think film will still be readily available, but from fewer suppliers, at a higher price. It will be used mainly by people who also do digital, because they enjoy both processes, and understand the benefits of each. Darkroom printing will shrink faster than film use, as more people adopt a hybrid work flow.

tnabbott · Sep 5, 2014

Film will be gone in 20 years, sadly.

perkeleellinen · Sep 5, 2014

Looking back to '94 I would never have guessed my situation today so I'll be useless at guessing the situation in 2034. Here's my prediction however which is just a bit of fun:

Film will outlive digital - by that I don't mean there will be a mass move back to film; that will never happen. Rather a new way to make photos will exist and the shift away from what we call digital will be rapid and total. It's possible to wax lyrical about film in a way that doesn't happen with digital. Ode to grain? Sure. Ode to RAW? No. Pros will move to the new post digital world for convenience and consumers will move because they want the latest thing, no 'traditional' digital photographers will exist because it's impossible to feel romance toward photoshop. In the future Jpeg will sound as arcane as U-Matic today. For that reason no one will scan either.

Onto film. Maybe mass production will finish, maybe because of problems with raw materials or environmental legislation. Cameras will rise in price. So much that maybe new manufacturers enter the market. Film production may be very small scale, perhaps annual runs of one type only. Quality is lower than now but we're prepared to put up that that. Maybe we have to slit and perforate at home. New techniques make film production possible on a very small scale.

Darkroom: not as we know it. Maybe a new way to develop without the use of chemistry. I imagine an air-tight box in which a gas develops and fixes a material that probably isn't paper, this can also be used by post digital photographers. Because of this the new post digital photography and film photography share many similarities and no adversarial cleavage exists.

pdeeh · Sep 5, 2014

Simon Galley has assured us Harman are in for the long haul with film, and makers like Foma and (we hope) Ferrania seem committed to film's future ... however ...

One thing that never seems to get discussed (although it does get mentioned occasionally) is ... cameras in 20 years time.

Can the recirculating stock of cameras manufactured decades ago sustain film use? It must dwindle to some extent as they break, become irreparable because of lack of parts or skill or simply get binned. 3D printing can't save them all ...

analoguey · Sep 5, 2014

In 20 years, we would have more consolidation of electronic data, and especially buying habits, info tracking - I suspect that we will have more accessibility to film than less. More availability of mail-order processing.
And digital devices (nos) would plateau because everyone would have had a sip and not be that enthused about frequent upgrades.
Analogue might be a more mainstream niche.

Sent from Tap-a-talk

darkosaric · Sep 5, 2014

Cameras are not a problem. My M3 is almost 60 years old, and it will outlive me. Buy Lieca MP new today and you have camera for a life time, and for your kid and your grandkid. And bigger formats are having even older cameras in working conditions, those 120 box cameras are not possible to break - they will be functional even 100 years from now .

20 years is nothing - it is a blink of an eye, Ilford and Adox will be there 100%, and maybe even Kodak will have his 7th "chapter 11" in 20 years from now

analoguey · Sep 5, 2014

perkeleellinen;1694729 Onto film. Maybe mass production will finish said:
problems with raw materials or environmental legislation.[/U] Cameras will rise in price. So much that maybe new manufacturers enter the market. Film production may be very small scale, perhaps annual runs of one type only. Quality is lower than now but we're prepared to put up that that. Maybe we have to slit and perforate at home. New techniques make film production possible on a very small scale.

Film, is being produced with commonly available raw materials, nothing exotic. (at least, afaik)
OTOH, every digital device has more and more of "rare-earth" raw material required, plus the obvious bit of electricity and not-so-abundant water-supply. Any new technology needs 30 years to be mature enough to be available for the common man/user, and I doubt we will see much difference in photographic media(digitally) by 2034.

pdeeh · Sep 5, 2014

darkosaric said:
Cameras are not a problem ... Buy Lieca MP new today and you have camera for a life time

This is wishful thinking.

How much is an MP? £3000? £4000?
How much is an M3 with a decent lens? £600? £900?

Cameras don't just "go on forever", even Leicas. You can see that simply by the volume of threads about getting them repaired, just here at APUG.

If there is not a continuous large flow of new equipment into the used market, keeping the older cameras going (they are not all box cameras or Leicas) will become more and more expensive as the skills become rarer and parts have to be remanufactured by craftsmen

Owning a film camera to use regularly will become even more of a rich-man's game - or , at the least, a comfortably-off-middle-class game ...

hoffy · Sep 5, 2014

pdeeh said:
This is wishful thinking.

How much is an MP? £3000? £4000?
How much is an M3 with a decent lens? £600? £900?

Cameras don't just "go on forever", even Leicas. You can see that simply by the volume of threads about getting them repaired, just here at APUG.

If there is not a continuous large flow of new equipment into the used market, keeping the older cameras going (they are not all box cameras or Leicas) will become more and more expensive as the skills become rarer and parts have to be remanufactured by craftsmen

Owning a film camera to use regularly will become even more of a rich-man's game - or , at the least, a comfortably-off-middle-class game ...

I agree - with no new smaller cameras hitting the market, there is going to come a time when there are going to be a lot of broken cameras that can't be used.

I am going to make a bold prediction. Once the Hipsters move onto other things and the older generation pass on, I think the hardest hit is going to be the 35mm market. I also predict that Medium Format will start to dwindle after a while, simply because the hardware will start becoming rare and hard to fix.

I predict that Large Format will have a following that will keep on. Why? In reality, a large format camera is so simple to both build and fix. There might also be a level of "well I'm spending $$$ to shoot film, I might as well go the whole hog".

But then again. I might be talking totally out of my arse...

Jaf-Photo · Sep 5, 2014

What concerns me re analogue cameras, is that the people who know how to service and repair them are getting old.

With proper care and servicing, the cameras could last another generation.

But then again, there will probably be some diy enthusiasts.

darkosaric · Sep 5, 2014

Maybe I am too optimistic - but 20 years is really not long period. Impossible project started business on cameras that are no longer produced, and we have still in production companies like Leica, Bessa, Rolleiflex, Russian and Ukrainian guys producing super cameras and lenses (not just for lomography), also 3D printing ... 200 years from now - maybe - but 20 years is nothing.

Mainecoonmaniac · Sep 5, 2014

I think it's going to be a fine art process like printmaking.

mark · Sep 5, 2014

pdeeh said:
Owning a film camera to use regularly will become even more of a rich-man's game - or , at the least, a comfortably-off-middle-class game ...

IMO it already is.

pdeeh · Sep 5, 2014

Hence my saying "even more of a ..."

DREW WILEY · Sep 5, 2014

I'll be grateful if I still see anything in twenty years time. But even if I was younger, I wouldn't worry much. Color slide "chrome" film is at risk, but not much else; and there will probably be a good selection of black and white film for a very long time. Various digital technologies self-destruct rapidly, otherwise they wouldn't have jobs! But it is an excellent time to buy used film cameras and darkroom gear. Just do it. Young folks often rebel against the values of their parents anyway... so given the ridiculous materialistic obsession of the current generation for every silly new electronic gadget, whether they need it or not, their own kids will probably be sneaking into the woods to secretly carve box cameras and coat glass plates. It's already happening. People with an artistic bent inherently gravitate to something tactile. I'm right here in the heart of Techie Land, and many many times have had software engineers approach me on the trail and ask to look under my darkcloth,
and even remark that they wish they had a "real camera" and a darkroom too!

DREW WILEY · Sep 5, 2014

And I should add ... a rich man's game is having to replace your equipment every few years because the damn software is obsolete. I'd call that a dumb rich man. Crocodiles and turtles survived the age of dinosaurs, not because they were the fanciest or most conspicuous life forms for awhile, but because they had designs that just made sense in the long run. As long as I can remember, some favorite film or paper or camera design went out of production. But some kind of choice was always available. And well made lenses and cameras can last a long long time. I hear about expensive this or that, but heck, just take a damn JC machine shop class and learn how to fix things yourself. Any competent cabinetmaker could make a view camera, or repair one. Some med format equip is so cheap at the moment that you could buy a spare or two just for the parts. Will your car last as long? Will your silly cell phone be up to speed a year from now? A lens might work for two
hundred years if you take care of it. Stop having hissy fits and just enjoy photography. For all you know an asteroid will hit the earth and wipe
out everything digital anyway, just like happened to all those fancy dinosaurs. If we survive, we can always go back to cave painting and start
over.

Curt · Sep 5, 2014

pdeeh said:
Also, in 20 years everyone will wear silver lurex jumpsuits, have pills instead of food, and commute to work on Jupiter by personal nuclear rocketship

That's pretty much what they told us in grade school in the 1950s! They said it would be that way by the 1970s, go figure!

rbultman · Sep 5, 2014

I think people will come up with new designs that can be made fairly cheaply with rapid prototyping machines such as 3D printers, laser cutters, and other CNC equipment. Such designs would use existing glass, which I assume is more durable than the bodies with their many moving parts. This applies to both 35mm and MF. LF, as others have said, is relatively simple.

I worry more about the clockworks in those mechanical cameras. Who is making the timers for cameras like the Bessa R series? Will you be able to find parts to repair the shutters in RB67 lenses? How about Hasselblads? What about LF shutters?

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

Ken Nadvornick · Sep 5, 2014

Nuff said:
I think because sometimes it's pointless to waste time thinking about future when it's unpredictable. And yes, I do live my life that way.

Predicting the future is an exercise in abstract thinking. It's one of the distinguishing characteristics of intelligent life, including animal intelligence. We all do it. Even you. Even if you don't realize it.

Would you by choice step in front of a fast moving train? No? Well, that's because you can accurately predict the future. Predicting the future is often just a simple exercise in recognizing potential cause and effect. You put on shoes every day, right? Carry a spare tire on long trips? Don't walk into dark alleys carrying fistfuls of cash? Don't run with scissors? (That was your mom was teaching you how to predict the future...)

I have had many wonderful things happen to me in my life precisely because I refused to ignore what was going on around me and, using that information, successfully predicted the future. And I have also avoided many bad things the same way.

Far from pointless, I might associate the refusal to think about the future as something akin to walking down those same railroad tracks wearing a blindfold and earplugs. Sure, you can do it. And it's guaranteed that your future will arrive. But you must be absolutely willing to place the outcome of your future into the hands of that fellow driving the train. And to recognize that his are not, and will never be, your hands.

Analog photography in 20 years? Just apply the same cognitive reasoning to the question that you already do every day for everything else.

All signs point to it being reduced, but still practiced. Both color and b&w. It won't be Kodak or Fuji. It might be Adox and Harman and Ferrania. Or maybe even just Harman. But it will be somebody.

And the cameras? Well, it took 30+ years for me to have my heavily-used (including with a heavy-duty MD2 motor drive) Nikon F2 serviced for the first time. The technician matter-of-factly reported that all of the mechanisms, including the shutter speeds, were still within factory tolerances. And my current favorite camera, a 47-year-old Crown Graphic, looks, feels, and works like brand new.

I think we're good...

Ken

blockend · Sep 6, 2014

Predicting the future of film photography is impossible, because there are too many variables to make even tentative conclusions. Some of the factors that could hasten film's demise are:

Leaps in digital image quality and processing. Right now film offers a real aesthetic difference. If that was reproduced precisely by digital photography, at the same time as huge advances in digital image rendering, set against stasis in film technology research, the uniqueness of film would be entirely process based. Relying on processing novelty alone would shrink film use massively, perhaps to the same numbers who enjoy wood cuts and etching as image making tools. Also the spread of convenient imaging tools of the smart phone type. The fashion for film may die as equipment values tumble and film costs increase to boutique levels with silver and paper costs. Cheap custom printing to high standards. Digital making progress into large format photography at consumer prices.

Factors that could enhance film's status:
Lack of advances in sensor technology. Progress has slowed down to increased pixel numbers and processing tweaks compared to the early days of digital photography. Users may re-evaluate the cost of digital churn relative to image quality. The fashion for film may increase as consumers tire of seamless digital IQ.

My (complete) guess is film will continue its modest expansion if the industry can service cheap and bespoke film use. Medium and larger formats are less susceptible to decline than 35mm, but the smaller format will remain the driver for the foreseeable future.

Where do you see Analogue photography in (say) 20 years time ?

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