Where do you see Analogue photography in (say) 20 years time ?

Dogus Utkucu · Sep 3, 2014

Hello everyone,

I don't know if this was ever a discussion in another thread but since I am moving myself towards film these days (even though it is very slowly) I was wondering what is your assumption for the future of analogue photography.
I will make my own assumptions based on whatever I learned so far which is profoundly little so please be patient with me.

I think number of people who shoots film will grow in absolute terms however it will still be declining in percentage due to the increase in population and therefore number of people who owns a camera.
I think types of film will be declining but the brands who survive this will be in a much better shape financially.
Some camera manufacturers will introduce new model(s) of analogue cameras since there will be too much competition in digital and there will be so much junk lying around.

These are a few that I can come up with.

Anyways, what is your idea?

benjiboy · Sep 3, 2014

Sorry I've mislaid my crystal ball.

darkosaric · Sep 3, 2014

Dogus Utkucu said:
Where do you see Analogue photography in (say) 20 years time ?

On the same place as now. It will be ok, no worries .

removed account4 · Sep 3, 2014

in 20 years?
i see it part 1870-90 and part now ( kind of like now )

michr · Sep 3, 2014

Analog photography, e.g. film and film cameras, is a niche market from here on out.

There is no possible revival of the medium that could rival film in its heyday. It was once the default (and often the only) image making material for anyone that wanted to make an image.

Unfortunately, and I hope I'm wrong, film will not be cheap, abundant, and widely available either. Many emulsions have been discontinued already with more to follow. Buying new film stock will resemble buying from the Impossible Project; it will be a speciality item.

I think the main thing that will be lost, through increasing costs and scarcity, is the casual approach to analog photography. However you feel about the medium of the snapshot, it belongs to digital now.

BradS · Sep 3, 2014

I find life more enjoyable when lived in the here and now. Fear of the future is paralyzing.

Today we are blessed with the very best films in all of history. Use them and enjoy your short miserable life.

darkosaric · Sep 3, 2014

I can not speak for all world - but for western civilization (west Europe, USA, Canada...): people spending so much money on stuff that they don't need, on weekend hundreds and hundreds of euros/$ for drinks in bars and discos, electronic gadgets ... you name it. After seeing this - to spend 50-100€ per month for films, paper and chemicals is totally ok and justified. Analog photography is not expensive hobby. Films and chemicals are cheap, and if you don't have so much money - then print on smaller papers. 10x15cm prints are beautiful too .

ps. Maybe I see things differently because my roots are from ex. communist country, I grow up in totally different environment.

Ko.Fe. · Sep 3, 2014

B/W only. If any.
It isn't about price or your origin.
New generation ain't capable to keep their bedroom clean. Imagine what they will do in the darkroom.

Old-N-Feeble · Sep 3, 2014

Coating one's own films from scratch-made emulsions processed in scratch-made chemicals then printed on paper with scratch-made emulsions in scratch-made chemicals. By then it'll be back to the dark ages for analog.

Old-N-Feeble · Sep 3, 2014

Ko.Fe. said:
B/W only. If any.
It isn't about price or your origin.
New generation ain't capable to keep their bedroom clean. Imagine what they will do in the darkroom.

When I was a kid my bedroom was a disaster... but my makeshift darkroom was spotless.

Vonder · Sep 3, 2014

I'm always amazed at these threads, how most people go off on the OP, telling him to live in the moment. Obviously most of us have all we need. Food, shelter, sex and a computer with an internet connection. Anything else is a want - and I'm not 100% sure 'bout the computer. If everything went away, no more film, no more paper, no more chemicals (cameras already being gone, no longer made) we'd either switch to digital or make our own emulsions and carry on. In 20 years I might be dead. I'll take living first, then my family's wellbeing, then photography.

But the OP asked what your opinion was about film in 20 years time. He didn't ask for a lecture on values, greed, and general morality.

I think in 20 years the only one left standing will be Ilford. I give slight odds to most C-41 films, but E-6 might hang around simply for what it is, and requires no innate extra processing nor equipment.

snapguy · Sep 3, 2014

thanks

Let's give thanks to the Great Spirit (or whatever) that all those mindless, vapid snapshots vomited onto the Internet are not wasting perfectly good film. In my humbug opinion film photography will settle into its own niche like oil painting (not everybody doe it), silkscreening and ballroom dancing. Where it belongs. Film folks will be amateurs, semi-pros, pros and Art Photogs. Jut like today, only with less traffic in the fast lanes.

MattKing · Sep 3, 2014

Film will still be the pre-eminent tool for long term archiving of very important data, so it will still be manufactured.

It will come to us in drones operated by a competitor to Amazon.

pdeeh · Sep 3, 2014

Lets say I wanted to buy clothing made from hand-loomed textiles ... I could either buy something flawless made by a designer boutique, or perhaps get something loomed by an enthusiastic amateur which will have few faults and a certain rustic charm, or perhaps I could make my own (quite literally homespun) ... the first option will be very expensive indeed and available in limited volumes, the second option moderately expensive and available in only limited volumes and in only a very few styles, and the final option will probably be OK to wear to a barndance or in the garden.

pdeeh · Sep 3, 2014

Also, in 20 years everyone will wear silver lurex jumpsuits, have pills instead of food, and commute to work on Jupiter by personal nuclear rocketship

dwross · Sep 3, 2014

As a metaphor, "the Dark Ages" is a particularly poor choice for this topic. The historical time called the Dark Ages produced some extraordinarily beautiful and powerful art. The period of time from 1880 to around 1935 in photography also produced some extraordinarily beautiful and powerful art. That's the period of time that artisan emulsion makers are currently capable of reproducing. Not so shabby. We'd be doing even better if more people would participate in the rescue efforts.

Alan Klein · Sep 3, 2014

I hope I'm still alive in twenty years and shooting whatever.

Dave Martiny · Sep 3, 2014

I'm sure I remember reading threads like this 10, even 15 years ago. Many predicted back then that film would not be available in 5 years.

Well, here we are.

It reminds me of a John Prine song, "Living in the Future":

"We are living in the future,
I'll tell you how I know,
Read it in the papers,
15 years ago.

We're all driving rocket ships,
and talking with our minds,
wearing turquoise jewelry,
and standing in soup lines,
Yeah, we're standing in soup lines"

TheToadMen · Sep 3, 2014

Just watch the trilogy "Back to the future" once again and you'll know ...

BTW: I saw a real original Delorean for sale recently.

David Brown · Sep 3, 2014

Dogus Utkucu said:
I don't know if this was ever a discussion in another thread ...

Only two or three times a year. or more ...

Poisson Du Jour · Sep 3, 2014

In private conversations with dealers and labs, I give colour (E6 especially) 3 years to go before a wipe out and there is wide agreement on this as realistic. C41 will trickle down to nothing in the next few to 5 to 10 years while B&W, will probably hold out in the more common sizes if there is sufficient momentum in market uptake.

None of this worries or concerns me. I will have exited photography long before the stated 20 year timeline.

Nuff · Sep 3, 2014

In 20 years, no idea. Do I care? No I do not. As others have said, who knows what will happen tomorrow. You could have car accident or be hit by a bus. I only plan the most important aspects for the future. Photography is to be enjoyed now and appreciated later.

Even though everyone is saying E6 is doomed, I just got into it in big way. All of my 35mm colour is shot on E6. So what if it's dead in 3 years? My images will not disappear in a black hole. We still have lots of kodachrome images around.

Dogus Utkucu · Sep 4, 2014

When I opened this thread my goal was to have brain storming about what the future may bring us. This was definitely not coming out of fear because I didn't even shoot a full roll yet so I am the last person to worry about this among you lot. I see a lot of defensive comments most of them revolves around "carpe diem" which certainly was not address the question as to whether your projections about the future of analogue photography look like. If this is how you live your life, good for you; and if you felt the need of sharing this, that's welcome too but it just is not what we talk about here.
I wonder if the same thread was opened in as digital photography what would be the general approach. I don't think it would be negative quite as much.
This is more like a weather forecast or stock exchange projections based on scientific evidence, which btw rarely comes close to being true .
So far vast majority of people agree that it will be a niche product and b&w will survive longer. One fellow member thinks Ilford will be the only brand that survives and I would like to know why for instance.
Thanks to those who shared their opinions so far.

hdeyong · Sep 4, 2014

I think as we die off, there won't be enough people to replace us who buy analogue products. The film and paper companies may have mergers to keep going instead of trying to fight it out for a shrinking market.
But, I think film photography will be around for more than another twenty years.

Nuff · Sep 4, 2014

Dogus Utkucu said:
When I opened this thread my goal was to have brain storming about what the future may bring us. This was definitely not coming out of fear because I didn't even shoot a full roll yet so I am the last person to worry about this among you lot. I see a lot of defensive comments most of them revolves around "carpe diem" which certainly was not address the question as to whether your projections about the future of analogue photography look like. If this is how you live your life, good for you; and if you felt the need of sharing this, that's welcome too but it just is not what we talk about here.
I wonder if the same thread was opened in as digital photography what would be the general approach. I don't think it would be negative quite as much.
This is more like a weather forecast or stock exchange projections based on scientific evidence, which btw rarely comes close to being true .
So far vast majority of people agree that it will be a niche product and b&w will survive longer. One fellow member thinks Ilford will be the only brand that survives and I would like to know why for instance.
Thanks to those who shared their opinions so far.

I think because sometimes it's pointless to waste time thinking about future when it's unpredictable. And yes, I do live my life that way. I used to race motorbikes, I did snowboarding until earlier this year. But now I can't do it because of injuries. On the day I started snowboarding I didn't think about it's future and me (and I broke my wrists back etc thanks to it), even as on the day I started a guy has died from impaling himself on a tree. It's the same as getting into a car knowing that hundreds of people die in them.

I don't think digital is relevant in this discussion, if you ask the same question of course the answer will be yes. It will be here in 20 years. I think the big difference you will find is that people around here know more about art, photographers etc, not just megapixels and technical specifications of their cameras while arguing over DOF equivalence.

Where do you see Analogue photography in (say) 20 years time ?

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