What 35MM cameras will still work in 2038?

elekm · Dec 10, 2008

Most of the crappy plastic cameras, including SLRs, will be cluttering landfills. The older classics from the 1930s to 1950s that work today will still continue to work. That includes the Retinas, the Contaxes and the Leicas, but also some Nikon, some Pentax, some Canon and some Olympus, some Minolta, etc.

Kowa, Petri and the names that pretty much are forgotten today will be pretty much forgotten tomorrow.

Most digi-junk will continue to pollute the earth as its plastic decays into some cancerous puddle in some poor region in China or the Philippines, which is apparently where most developed nations are shipping their really horrible refuse for alleged recycling.

tim k · Dec 10, 2008

John Hermanson said:
If batteries are available www.zuiko.com

Batteries, and er perhaps film? you think? hope?

Chazzy · Dec 10, 2008

Does the Minolta XD-11 have an electronic shutter or a mechanical one?

John Hermanson · Dec 11, 2008

tim k said:
Batteries, and er perhaps film? you think? hope?

The assumption is that film and batteries will still be around, film at least as a boutique item. Without batteries and film, the OM-1/1N, 3/3Ti will still wind and fire at all speeds. John, www.zuiko.com

uwphotoer · Dec 11, 2008

I'm betting on the Nikon F2's that I have will, since some are already over 30 yrs old and working well.... others I have are in need of service...... (suggestions?)

Batteries, no problem, I can meter by wetting my finger in my mouth and holding it up in the air..... I'd say f11....... lol actually I use the sunny 16 rule....

BradS · Dec 11, 2008

bnstein said:
....General electronics have a mean time to failure of about 20 years so the problems will be the same but with a longer half life. For my still happy FE2 aged 23, the chances of being electronically alive without surgery are about 35%....

I see that you are a man of Science.

Are you assuming an exponential distibution here? If so, I come up with the probability of survival to 53 years of only about 7%....

S(t) = exp( -t / 20 ) = exp( -53 / 20 ) = 0.07065

Perhaps, you've stated the probability conditioned upon the fact that the FE2 haas already survived 23 years?

Or has my brain gone soft?

Paul Howell · Dec 11, 2008

Chazzy said:
Does the Minolta XD-11 have an electronic shutter or a mechanical one?

All of the X bodies were electronic, like other there may a manual speed as well.

naeroscatu · Dec 11, 2008

my Leica IIIc and Summitar 50mm lens have been CLA'd last year and work like new. That is 58 years old. I see no reason why this camera will not work 30 years from now, assuming it will still be in good hands (mine proably not). My Zeiss Ikonta 520/ 15 (not 35mm but you get the idea) is close to 80 years old and still ticking. What are we worried about here

Besk · Dec 11, 2008

uwphotoer said:
I'm betting on the Nikon F2's that I have will, since some are already over 30 yrs old and working well.... others I have are in need of service...... (suggestions?)

The Nikon F2's are all (or the important parts are) made of metal. As long as the shutter hasn't had too many actuations it should be good for a looong time.

Plastic degrades - body, electronics, etc. Even cloth shutter curtains can go bad - especially from non-use.

So my bets are on all-metal, all mechanical cameras such as my F2 and my Olympus RC.

Thinking about it a little, there is a very good chance that the original owner of my 1930's Century Universal 8X10 is long dead. And the camera is in good shape except for the bellows.

Chaplain Jeff · Dec 12, 2008

Hello,

Here are my picks:

Rangefinders:
Leica M3, M5*
Minolta / Canon LTM clones like the Minolta 35 Model II
Minolta Super A

SLRs:
Minolta SRTs
Nikon F / F2 (maybe the F3 - gotta watch out for bad circuit boards)
Nikkormats and the Nikon FM family of mechanical bodies
Nikon FA

I don't have, but would suspect:
Leica LTMs, Contax, etc.
Canon F1 / F1n
Olympus OM series
Pentax Thread Mounts (awesome!)

NOT
Minolta CLE (irreplacible / irreparable circuit board)
Any Minolta SLR newer than the XE**
Cosina-made Voightlanders (plastic)
Consumer grade Nikons / Canons (or others) like the FG, AE-1, etc.

* The M5 and many other "older" cameras use Mercury batteries - you can work around this...
**Don't bet on any "modern" Minolta camera going the distance as there are no parts for repairs, as there is no more Minolta - unless you have bodies for your repairman to cannibalize

bnstein · Dec 12, 2008

BradS said:
Are you assuming an exponential distibution here? If so, I come up with the probability of survival to 53 years of only about 7%....

S(t) = exp( -t / 20 ) = exp( -53 / 20 ) = 0.07065

Perhaps, you've stated the probability conditioned upon the fact that the FE2 haas already survived 23 years?

Or has my brain gone soft?

Indeed, Ive assumed an exponential distribution, but I have conditioned it on the fact that my FE2 is alive and well at its recent physical

Chaplain Jeff · Dec 12, 2008

Chazzy said:
Does the Minolta XD-11 have an electronic shutter or a mechanical one?

Hello,

I'm pretty sure that all Minolta SLRs after the SRT (excepting maybe the XE, not sure) are electronic shutters.

Seems like even their "pro" camera, the XK had an electronic shutter, but I wouldn't swear to that (I know it's a bear to reset if you trip the shutter without the camera being "awake"). Haven't held one in a long time.

Jeff M

B&Jdude · Dec 22, 2008

I have one of those XKs, and when you trip the shutter, whether the camera is asleep or awake, it remains in the open position until I pull the battery . . . then it snaps closed. Something electrical/electronic in there has given up the ghost.

Hey, Colin Corneau, if the folks from the early 1900s had wondered if their cameras would last, they had no need for concern. I do a lot of shooting with cameras built in the 1900 - 1930 time frame, and if they haven't been left outdoors, thrown against the wall, stepped on, or otherwise abused, there is no reason why they won't work today, or 30 years hence, with a CLA and a bit of TLC.

My Kodak Panorams & Brownie boxes, Conley Kewpie, and dial-set Compur shutters keep on taking pictures 70 - 100 years later just as if they were new.

Smiff

viridari · Dec 22, 2008

BradS said:
oh, and I thought this was going to be a thread about the "year 2037" bug....

Did you mean the year 2038 bug?

narsuitus · Dec 22, 2008

My following 35mm manual/mechanical cameras should still be working in 2038:

Nikon F2 SLR with non-metered viewfinders
Argus C3 rangefinder

My manual/mechanical 6x7cm and 6x9cm medium format Fuji rangefinders should also be working in 2038.

DWThomas · Dec 22, 2008

I figure my Argus C3 will still work in 2038, problem is, at 97, I probably won't!

DaveT

DBP · Dec 22, 2008

Among mine I would bet on my Argus C-3, C-33, C-4, C-44, and A (the latter will be 100 then). Also the Nikon Fs, Nikkormat Ftn, Canon L1, Bessa R, Exaktas, and most of the old Soviet rangefinders, assuming occasional use, proper care, and service. Pretty much everything else has a piece of electronics in it somewhere.

Anything designed before world war two has a decent chance of operating pretty much indefinitely because parts are relatively easy to fabricate and mechanisms fairly simple. At the extreme, the Argus C-3s may outlast all of us, with little or no maintenance.

Frank Szabo · Dec 22, 2008

The Aztec calendar runs out in 2012 - I think my F1n will make it that long on a couple batteries.

minoltax570srt202 · Dec 23, 2008

my 1.5v battery converted and recently overhauled minolta srt 202 should be around in 2038. i have no reason to believe the next 30 years will be any different than the last for my camera, even though i just bought it!

Photo Engineer · Dec 23, 2008

I'll ask another question here.

What 35mm slitting, perfing and spooling equipment will be operational in 2038 considering they have to be custom built and constantly maintained. This is not a specious question. If these machines are retired, there will be no 35mm film to feed any operational camera.

It is easy to slit and chop roll and sheet film. Perfing without defects and removal of the perf debris is not trivial.

PE

Brandon D. · Dec 23, 2008

jmcd said:
I think that my Canon F1 will be operating well in 2038. I hope it will be me using it!

I think that a Nikon Fm2n will be working that long.

Actually, the world already ended back in the year 2000 with the onset of the Y2K disaster.

BradS · Dec 23, 2008

viridari said:
Did you mean the year 2038 bug?

Yes. Exactly. In my own work, I've noticed that it is actually 2037 however...apparently, they use 1969 as the epoc instead of 1970.

Fun stuff.

ChrisPlatt · Dec 23, 2008

Pentax mechanical SLRs (all).

Chris

André E.C. · Dec 24, 2008

My beautiful F2 will, and further than 2038, surely!

Cheers

André

gb hill · Dec 24, 2008

Let's see...at 79 years old in 2039 I hope my shutter finger will still be working.Seriously, I have a Zorki 2s that is as smooth as butter & I expect it to still be working being it's all mechanical & needs no batteries. It will be interesting to see if my Bessa R & Bessa L will still be working 30 years from now. They seem to get a bad rap at times.

What 35MM cameras will still work in 2038?

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