This is a great example of the generational transition, I finally broke down and bought a cell phone, mainly to keep in touch with my GF and mom. Took me 2 days to learn how to use the damn thing. My GF's 12 year old son took it and started playing with it right away, putting ring tones, and god knows what else....I am hoping I dont get a $2000 cell phone bill...
...The cash revenue for camera and film manufacturers is the guy who buys a point and shoot to take pics of his/her kids, etc, etc. When the all inclusive gizmo has enough resolution so that the person can take the pic, beam it to Costo and pick it up 30 minutes later......
There will be very few photographs printed at this stage (my guess is 3-5 years) as they tend to be transient things (even pics of the kids get lost in shoeboxes etc) so the pics that are unwanted will be deleted whilst treasured pics will be archived to some as yet unheard of storage medium. I believe the sub $/£/euro 500 market is the one that is ultimately doomed.
Film will continue as a hobbyist medium, just like painting is today.
A New York Times article has some interesting observations on future trends for cameras. How about the GPS location caption for your images ;-) One interesting trend is demise of digital still photography in favor of movie clips. The related trend is digital gear is finally shedding its copying of still cameras.
Some interesting comments on this which probably show why cameras as WE know them are doomed apart from for serious users,
'Yet digital S.L.R.'s are big, bulky and heavy. And you can't use the screen to compose your shots, which, on other cameras, is a delicious convenience. You must frame your shots by peering through the eyepiece.' Has anyone here ever tried to compose a picture in a 2 inch screen held at arms length ? This is progress ?
'The P1 from Nikon and Elph SD430 from Canon both offer Wi-Fi wireless networking. Unfortunately, the only thing those cameras can do is transfer your pictures wirelessly to a computer or printer; they don't connect to the Internet.' And this is a problem because .... ?
'The EasyShare-One from Kodak, however, can send your photos by e-mail or post them on a free Kodak Web page or even go the opposite direction, summoning photos from your online stash to the camera's screen on demand.' Bye bye one hour labs for DIGITAL
Then the killer quote,
'THE NEXT-GEN CAMERA Paradise is still not in the cards; for one thing, nobody has yet figured out how to store all those digital photos for future generations. It's not clear how long hard drives and home-burned CD's can last, and the software question is even more frightening. Will the under-the-skin nanocomputers of 2100 still recognize JPEG files?'
Providing someone somewhere is making photographic paper and chemicals you will still be able to take a 50 year old negative and develop it to produce a print which will last at least 50 years (100 for BW).
Isn't progress wondeful ? Makes me feel glad I chose film .
'Yet digital S.L.R.'s are big, bulky and heavy. And you can't use the screen to compose your shots, which, on other cameras, is a delicious convenience. You must frame your shots by peering through the eyepiece.' Has anyone here ever tried to compose a picture in a 2 inch screen held at arms length ? This is progress ?
The funny thing is, my wife won't use the viewfinder on her Digital Elph. She only uses the LCD. I think it's just not intuitive for people that the viewfinder might be a better mechanism for composition.
The leave switched off in a drawer for months at a time, function works pretty well too.
Such a shame about Nikon, though.
"Providing someone somewhere is making photographic paper and chemicals you will still be able to take a 50 year old negative and develop it to produce a print which will last at least 50 years (100 for BW)."
And failing that, there will probably still be scanners.
The one issue that has not been addressed in any real form is long term storage of digital files (this is as much a problem for film shooters who scan negs to do post in photoshop). When people start seeing their memories destoryed that will be when the consumer questions the benefits of digital.