As you surmise one, or more variations are creeping into your routine; which is obviously frustrating.
The variation is most likely to be:
1. Developer strength/condition. Has your stock solution gone off?
2. Paper. Could you have type/grades mixed?
3. Light source / filtration. / voltage fluctuations.
When I experienced a similar problem I eventually traced the problem to the lamp contacts. I think your enlarger uses a bi-pin low voltage lamp. The lamp holder on these suffers from the heat, and really should be changed with each lamp change; but of course we don’t do this. Examine the lamp holder when cooled. If it looks a bit fried; change it. Rob one from a cheap LV spot from B&Q if need be. Check the pin spacing before doing so, there are different types.
Lamps do deteriorate, but not noticeably between sessions. You will notice the difference between a new, and old one; and certainly against a blown one.
Filters do deteriorate, but over years. They are unlikely to change between sessions.
Hope that helps.