Some thoughts on product availability

aldevo · Apr 9, 2007

Photo Engineer said:
If I had a solution, I guess I would be eligible for being called a prophet, but I have no solution and I'm not able to see the future. I'm not a prophet.

PE

Not a prophet? If I recall correctly, prophets have an unhappy history of getting killed (usually by stones) when they bear news that is not well-received in certain quarters.

We'd prefer to keep you around a bit longer to impart some of your emulison-making knowlege. So please don't go this route any time soon!

aldevo · Apr 9, 2007

Ken Nadvornick said:
Admittedly tangential, but are you certain?

A very substantial portion of the free metal mercury that enters the environment is as a result of degassing from the Earth's crusts and oceans.

Much more information is available here if you're curious:

http://books.google.com/books?id=Lu...ts=HeRYjlBQvc&sig=tmlEm2FUdGKqLNysBo3DZGwuPP0

Photo Engineer · Apr 9, 2007

aldevo said:
Not a prophet? If I recall correctly, prophets have an unhappy history of getting killed (usually by stones) when they bear news that is not well-received in certain quarters.

We'd prefer to keep you around a bit longer to impart some of your emulison-making knowlege. So please don't go this route any time soon!

A prophet is often not believed amongst his own people and is often stoned.

I hope I am an exception to this.

PE

aldevo · Apr 9, 2007

Photo Engineer said:
A prophet is often not believed amongst his own people and is often stoned.

I hope I am an exception to this.

PE

Yes, though it may seem otherwise when folks who don't have the depth of background you have try to counter your obervations.

Indeed, living in a large city I can claim to knowing several people who consider themselves prophets and are often stoned...though that has little to do with the casting of rocks.

Jordan.K · Apr 9, 2007

Well this will not only affect my job, but also one of things I truly love doing. This thread totally added to an already slightly crappy day. I was so excited to get my Phillips 8x10 that I am on the waiting list for, but after reading Photo Engineer's factual information and predictions he has made by it, I am honestly not nearly as excited.............. I am worried and feel hopeless............

braxus · Apr 9, 2007

I also hope to still have my job in the lab I work at for the next 20 years, assuming Im still there by then. Its hard to say how this will all effect photography down the road.

aldevo · Apr 9, 2007

Edimilson said:
I don't have even a fraction of the expertise displayed by you guys in this topic, but the remarks made by Photo Engineer reminded me of something I read about the subject "digital versus film" in the film industry. It has to do with the recent production of Miami Vice, with Colin Farrel. If I remember well, this film was shot digitally and some people argued that its image quality was sometimes lousy. I noticed that some ugly noise was clearly visible in some night scenes.
I brought this up to raise the following idea: perhaps people in the film industry will also object to giving in to digital and will remain loyal to film. That might, perhaps, ensure the survival of film for longer than the pessimists believe feasible.
Well, that's just a thought.

I hope you are right, but I have my doubts. Over the past 15 years there has been a rapid transformation in how films are financed by Hollywood. Bottom line: the studios don't do it any more - they reach out to the CitiGroups, the GE Capitals, etc. And I suspect that they want to contain costs wherever they can...

Given the general tastes of the movie-watching public in the USA, I'm inclined to believe that the advantage that film has over digital in cinematic image quality could go unappreciated...

Of course, there is also a great deal more motion picture film shot than the mass-market distributed stuff we see in the Cineplexes.

Jim Chinn · Apr 10, 2007

I don't quite understand the point of these threads. I think everyone pretty much understands the dire situation with regards to traditional materials. There is nothing any of us can do about it. The choices are pretty obvious. You either buy a large supply of film and paper and freeze it or you continue to use materials as always and when the day comes they are no longer available you move onto something else. I can't afford to buy a lifetime supply of materials so I buy film and paper as I use it and when the day comes it is either no longer available or to expensive for my budget I will learn collodion so I can still use my 8x10 and 11x14 cameras (lest they become very expensive door stops) and get a nice DSLR and Epson printer.

For me the possible or probable demise of analogue photography is not worth losing sleep over anymore. I still think film and paper will be available from someone, somewhere for a long time. The questions will be, can I afford such a specialty product, and will it have the quality I am used to?

aldevo · Apr 10, 2007

Jim Chinn said:
I don't quite understand the point of these threads. I think everyone pretty much understands the dire situation with regards to traditional materials. There is nothing any of us can do about it. The choices are pretty obvious. You either buy a large supply of film and paper and freeze it or you continue to use materials as always and when the day comes they are no longer available you move onto something else. I can't afford to buy a lifetime supply of materials so I buy film and paper as I use it and when the day comes it is either no longer available or to expensive for my budget I will learn collodion so I can still use my 8x10 and 11x14 cameras (lest they become very expensive door stops) and get a nice DSLR and Epson printer.

For me the possible or probable demise of analogue photography is not worth losing sleep over anymore. I still think film and paper will be available from someone, somewhere for a long time. The questions will be, can I afford such a specialty product, and will it have the quality I am used to?

A good post and certainly a reasonable viewpoint.

The present concerns surrounding the continued availability of analog photographic materials should not be ignored by those presently using DSLRs and inkjet printers. Or those that may turn to them in the future.

It has been opined by some and with increasing volume of late (e.g. Dirck Halstead) that dedicated still photography is going to be extinct in a couple decades as it is simply ridden over roughshod by larger trends in the convergence of consumer electronics. I can remember an article in a British photographic magazine about two years that queried product planners from Canon, Olympus, Sony, and Nikon where the digital imaging market was going and - with the exception of the Nikon rep - they left me with the impression that pictorial photography would be recuced to the harvest of single images from video cameras in the not-so-distant future. And all agreed that the reflection print was just about dead in their estimation.

We all think of Pentax, Canon, Fuji, Olympus, and Nikon as camera manufacturers but Canon's largest business is office equipment (e.g. copiers), Fuji still makes the lion share of its profits off television production equipment, Olympus' core business has as much to do with microscopy and scientific instruments as photography, and Pentax is, increasingly, a manufacturer of medical imaging diagnostic equipment.

Yes, I know that people have been predicting the demise of still, pictorial photography since the advent of afforeable video recorders in the late 70s. This time, though, the threat is different.

So, increasingly, the threat I perceive posed by digital is something larger than just the substitution of the memory card for film. It seems to have evolved into an assualt on all parts of what I perceive as the photographic process from visualization, to output, to presentation.

I'm not sure anybody saw that coming. Let's hope for a backlash!

aldevo · Apr 10, 2007

Jordke said:
Well this will not only affect my job, but also one of things I truly love doing. This thread totally added to an already slightly crappy day. I was so excited to get my Phillips 8x10 that I am on the waiting list for, but after reading Photo Engineer's factual information and predictions he has made by it, I am honestly not nearly as excited.............. I am worried and feel hopeless............

Don't get too depresed! If there's one thing APUG has convinced me of, it's that there is an increasing number of people who recongize the issues the market faces and that some retailers are getting increasingly involved with manufacturers to ensure their products find a market.

So, yes, there are challenges ahead...but the outlook isn't hopeless.

Wayne · Apr 10, 2007

Photo Engineer said:
Mercury occurs naturally at low level in the environment as mercuric oxide or other mercury salts. It is not found in the air except as dust from natural ore deposits, and never as a free metal.

forest fires also release a lot of mercury into the atmosphere.

Wayne

film_guy · Apr 10, 2007

With all the talk of gloom and death of analog photography, how many years do you predict it'll take before it's impossible for us to buy fresh supply of film (C-41 and B&W)? I would like to teach my kids (hopefully in 5 to 6 years' time) analog photography, and let them grow up shooting film if possible.

Jim Chinn · Apr 10, 2007

film_guy said:
With all the talk of gloom and death of analog photography, how many years do you predict it'll take before it's impossible for us to buy fresh supply of film (C-41 and B&W)? I would like to teach my kids (hopefully in 5 to 6 years' time) analog photography, and let them grow up shooting film if possible.

Enjoy shooting film yourself for now and if things start looking real bleak you could always buy a small supply of film, paper and chemistry and store it untill they get older. At least then you could give them a small taste of what film based photography in the 20th century was about.

And if film does completely go away? Then it will provide a good lesson on how all material things, no matter how much we love them are transient and fleeting.

Photo Engineer · Apr 10, 2007

film_guy said:
With all the talk of gloom and death of analog photography, how many years do you predict it'll take before it's impossible for us to buy fresh supply of film (C-41 and B&W)? I would like to teach my kids (hopefully in 5 to 6 years' time) analog photography, and let them grow up shooting film if possible.

As I have repeatedly said, "I am not a prophet".

OTOH, I really don't care as I can make my own paper and film. And, I'm doing my part by teaching others as much as I can in the time left to me.

PE

Snapshot · Apr 10, 2007

Well, to be a little upbeat (and perhaps overly optimistic) I've been speaking with a worker at Vistek (a large retailer of photography supplies in Toronto) about film and it's future. She commented that many people have abandoned d*g*tal and have returned to film for various reasons. I'm hopeful that there will be a continuance of this trend so that there be sufficient numbers of individuals to support the film industry.

wirehead · Apr 10, 2007

The problem is, the folks who used to burn 20 rolls of film on a single shoot all went digital and aren't coming back.

Those folks accounted for a lot of pro film volume, I'm sure.

I have a bad feeling all the folks who went back to film are just going to end up pissed like the rest of us when it all falls apart.

Petzi · Apr 10, 2007

wirehead said:
...when it all falls apart.

It won't fall apart. Things will be scaled down.

Snapshot · Apr 10, 2007

wirehead said:
The problem is, the folks who used to burn 20 rolls of film on a single shoot all went digital and aren't coming back.

Those folks accounted for a lot of pro film volume, I'm sure.

I have a bad feeling all the folks who went back to film are just going to end up pissed like the rest of us when it all falls apart.

I agree that most volume users have gone d*g*tal will not be coming back but it's good to see that there are folks that can see the merits of film. As for industry collapsing and the emotional tribulations that it will entail, my viewpoint is that it won't be as bad as it some people have portrayed it. Personally, I think it will be more of a rough landing than an outright crash but I have no basis for this opinion for other than gut feelings and instinct.

Scott Peters · Apr 10, 2007

Well, film is still a billion plus industry...fading for sure, but nonetheless, sizeable....so we'll still have it around for awhile...not time to panic yet.

The digital camera market has started to become mature," says J.P. Morgan analyst Hisashi Moriyama. ?Who's to say, Russia and China are big markets...

Photo Engineer · Apr 10, 2007

Scott;

That is the point though. A billion is going to Kodak but 99% is motion picture, so are we the tail that wags the dog? Or will we be discarded? IDK.

And to tell how much Ilford or EFKE are making one would have to look at their profit and loss statements.

PE

aldevo · Apr 10, 2007

Photo Engineer said:
Scott;

That is the point though. A billion is going to Kodak but 99% is motion picture, so are we the tail that wags the dog? Or will we be discarded? IDK.

And to tell how much Ilford or EFKE are making one would have to look at their profit and loss statements.

PE

Therein lies the problem. An Ilford, Efke, or Foma does not release publicly-accessible financial statements as they are under no obligation to do so. Outside of FujiFilm, I think EK is alone in doing so. And FujiFilm is a considerably more complex animal (they have large business units in TV equipment, consumer electronics outside of photography...even pharmaceuticals) and it would be difficult to analyze the health of the film unit to say the least.

As there is no reliable information that I can use to assess the relative health of any of these makers there is no reason why I am going to deviate from my practice of using the available products that most appeal to me - be they wearing Kodak, Ilford, or some other label on the box.

We can speculate all we want at the proverbial 50,000 foot level about the future of the analog market, but fly a bit lower to discuss the health of all but a couple of companies and you are flying blind without instrumentation.

Some thoughts on product availability

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency