Price trends and items you're looking for

[4season]

Remember Fight Club: When we spot a real bargain in the marketplace, we don't talk about it
(at least not if we want it to remain a bargain!)

I have the sense that film-camera prices rise and fall over time as trends come and go. Right now, premium autofocus compacts and Kyocera Contax are hot. Tomorrow, it'll probably be something else.

A few items on my wish list which aren't too tempting at today's typical asking prices:
50/1.9 Kern Macro-Switar for Alpa (or any 50mm Kern Switar in Alpa mount for that matter)
Kowa SW
Ducati Sogno w/35/2.8 Vitor

But reality-check for me is realizing that
$300 will buy a new Godox AD200 strobe outfit
$1200 will buy Sony's latest RX100 compact camera or maybe I could have a pair of shoes custom made for me.
$3000 can still buy a pretty good overseas vacation, at least once you-know-what has ended.
I admit that when it comes to film cameras, my comfort zone is closer to $50 than $500.

 

[awty]

Just a few years late.

If only bought up on hasselblad's and Leica's.
Snooze you lose.

 

[ic-racer]

I just finished a little search to upgrade some of my enlarger lenses. The nice silver Componon lenses that fit on the Durst lens panels are very very hard to obtain with good glass. About ten years ago I picked up these three with the intention of cleaning the glass. They all cleaned up reasonably well, but still some permanent marks and light fog remained.

I was able to find three Componon-S in the black barrels. For whatever reason the glass in all of these is perfect, yet I could not find any replacements in the silver barrels with perfect glass.

BTW Schneider changed the lens construction of the barrels so those Durst lens mounts for the silver barrel lenses don't work on the newer Componon-S lenses. The lens elements between the Componon and Componon-S are different too, so you can't put the new lens elements in the older barrels.

First picture shows 80mm Commponon, 135mm Componon and 210mm Componon.

Second picture shows 135mm Componon-S, 210mm Componon-S and 240mm Componon-S.

 

[Sirius Glass]

All talk, no do.

Why should I do anything. It is not my problem.

 

[Sirius Glass]

If only bought up on hasselblad's and Leica's.
Snooze you lose.

I never owned a Leica. Would have been nice to have and use, but I like slrs much better.

 

[reddesert]

That whole scene is not for me. I want cameras to use to make images, and I'd like to get some of my grail cameras before they hit the stratosphere. I'm thinking the Bronica S system will be the next marque that I soon won't be able to afford. Vintage cameras have some strange market quirks - who would imagine that Nikon F models with a plain prism finder would outpace those with Photomic prisms? I mean, if the meter is dead, you can use a Photomic as easily as a plain F prism with a handheld meter?

So what are you targeting?

Collectibleness is always a little odd and based partly on aesthetics and perceived scarcity. I'm pretty sure that the Nikon F standard prism was already semi-collectible when I bought my FTn in 1985. The Photomic prism is excess bulk if the meter dies and a bit inelegant, and the standard prism is rarer because all of the people buying them new in the 1960-70s wanted the meter.

(For reference, the F was "old" in 1985. I think I paid $100-150 for the FTn body, $100 for a 105/2.5, $65 for a 35/2.8, and later picked up a Konica auto S2 rf for $60, over-the-counter at local photo stores. That was all I had through college and after and was basically happy with it, pre-internet, pre-GAS. The dollar amounts are roughly similar to today but there has been 2.4x inflation.)

I'm interested in users that were iconic or special back in the day, for ex the Nikon F3 was top of the line when I started; or, in the 80s/90s I couldn't afford an interchangeable lens rangefinder, now some Canons are accessible. Leicas and certain RF lenses are well into the collectible, not user, realm.

 

[reddesert]

To expand, I don't really think of my preferences as collecting future rarities, it's more like excessively hoarding usable equipment. However, in retrospect we can identify some trends that influence demand. For example, in the 90s-00s, I feel nobody was very interested in 50mm MF lenses (especially for orphan mounts), or 3rd party prime MF lenses, compared to say AF zooms. Although a 50/1.4 was never completely cheap. The advent of mirrorless cameras and lens-adapting meant that now there is an additional user demand for such lenses, especially fast-ish lenses from wide angle to short tele, from the "must have out of focus blur" crowd.

There are likely examples of things underpriced compared to their use value. For ex, somebody mentioned 80s/90s plastic-clad SLRs. The Nikon N90/s is an extremely good camera that is nearly free at the moment. I get why a young person who grew up with digitals would want to go to the opposite end and get a manual film camera (like an FM2/FE2, OM-1, etc). Maybe at some point the AF film SLRs will see some demand (but always be cheaper than the F100). Another possible increase: as full-frame DSLRs and mirrorless become more common and affordable, demand for full-frame lenses, even non-pro-level, has probably increased and may continue.

Other examples: modern large format lenses are going for peanuts compared to what they once cost (normal plasmats like a Symmar, excepting collectibles or XL types). If more people took up large format, that could change, but sheet film and enlarging/scanning is enough of a pain that I don't think millennials in apartments will take it up casually. Darkroom equipment could increase over its nadir several years ago, but almost no darkroom stuff is "collectible." Some medium format system cameras are still moderate prices - more than 10 years ago, but less expensive than a Hasselblad or the late-model systems that were always pricey (Mamiya, Bronica RFs). Maybe people who again can't afford a Hasselblad will buy into Mamiya 645, just as they might have in the 1980s; maybe not.

 

[AndyH]

To expand, I don't really think of my preferences as collecting future rarities, it's more like excessively hoarding usable equipment. However, in retrospect we can identify some trends that influence demand. For example, in the 90s-00s, I feel nobody was very interested in 50mm MF lenses (especially for orphan mounts), or 3rd party prime MF lenses, compared to say AF zooms. Although a 50/1.4 was never completely cheap. The advent of mirrorless cameras and lens-adapting meant that now there is an additional user demand for such lenses, especially fast-ish lenses from wide angle to short tele, from the "must have out of focus blur" crowd.

There are likely examples of things underpriced compared to their use value. For ex, somebody mentioned 80s/90s plastic-clad SLRs. The Nikon N90/s is an extremely good camera that is nearly free at the moment. I get why a young person who grew up with digitals would want to go to the opposite end and get a manual film camera (like an FM2/FE2, OM-1, etc). Maybe at some point the AF film SLRs will see some demand (but always be cheaper than the F100). Another possible increase: as full-frame DSLRs and mirrorless become more common and affordable, demand for full-frame lenses, even non-pro-level, has probably increased and may continue.

Other examples: modern large format lenses are going for peanuts compared to what they once cost (normal plasmats like a Symmar, excepting collectibles or XL types). If more people took up large format, that could change, but sheet film and enlarging/scanning is enough of a pain that I don't think millennials in apartments will take it up casually. Darkroom equipment could increase over its nadir several years ago, but almost no darkroom stuff is "collectible." Some medium format system cameras are still moderate prices - more than 10 years ago, but less expensive than a Hasselblad or the late-model systems that were always pricey (Mamiya, Bronica RFs). Maybe people who again can't afford a Hasselblad will buy into Mamiya 645, just as they might have in the 1980s; maybe not.

Great analysis! Especially the first paragraph, which describes my situation - "Hoarder of usable equipment" describes me.

I've got to agree that large format is the bargain area, especially lenses and less elegant brands like Cambo and Graphic. Field cameras are very popular with Millennials - and a recent video from a popular content provider showed more than ten active makers of large format view cameras.

Andy

 

[reddesert]

Great analysis! Especially the first paragraph, which describes my situation - "Hoarder of usable equipment" describes me.

I've got to agree that large format is the bargain area, especially lenses and less elegant brands like Cambo and Graphic. Field cameras are very popular with Millennials - and a recent video from a popular content provider showed more than ten active makers of large format view cameras.

Andy

Large format is an area where:
(a) there's a lot of usable equipment cast off by professionals and studios, that hasn't been soaked up like Hasselblads. This mostly doesn't include field cameras, but 4x5 monorails, high quality lenses, and necessaries such as holders.
(b) a cottage maker or importer can actually make a usable camera or accessory. Especially true with 3D printing and with access to custom manufacturing. A small business can bring a 4x5 or 8x10 field camera to market, since the really mechanically complicated stuff is in the lens optics and shutter, and you don't have to build in complicated interlocks, etc. By contrast, the people who have tried to kickstarter a complete 35mm camera got in way over their heads - it's like saying you're going to crowd-fund Nikon's engineering department.

New makers of field cameras perhaps keep the price of old field cameras from getting too inflated; because there were not as many old field cameras to begin with, compared to studio monorails. Top end field cameras were always expensive and likely will continue to be, especially those from makers who have retired.

I'm not really worried about getting priced out of the market for user or collectible cameras, but about the continued viability of things that take a large infrastructure, like film and paper plants, processing labs, and some kinds of repair and parts. The film and lab situation seems to have stabilized, but I hope another hit to the economy doesn't set it back.

 

[AndyH]

Large format is an area where:
(a) there's a lot of usable equipment cast off by professionals and studios, that hasn't been soaked up like Hasselblads. This mostly doesn't include field cameras, but 4x5 monorails, high quality lenses, and necessaries such as holders.
(b) a cottage maker or importer can actually make a usable camera or accessory. Especially true with 3D printing and with access to custom manufacturing. A small business can bring a 4x5 or 8x10 field camera to market, since the really mechanically complicated stuff is in the lens optics and shutter, and you don't have to build in complicated interlocks, etc. By contrast, the people who have tried to kickstarter a complete 35mm camera got in way over their heads - it's like saying you're going to crowd-fund Nikon's engineering department.

New makers of field cameras perhaps keep the price of old field cameras from getting too inflated; because there were not as many old field cameras to begin with, compared to studio monorails. Top end field cameras were always expensive and likely will continue to be, especially those from makers who have retired.

I'm not really worried about getting priced out of the market for user or collectible cameras, but about the continued viability of things that take a large infrastructure, like film and paper plants, processing labs, and some kinds of repair and parts. The film and lab situation seems to have stabilized, but I hope another hit to the economy doesn't set it back.

Excellent points. I hadn't really thought about the ease of developing new field cameras in the era of 3D printing and CAM/CAD woodworking technology. The film demand in standard sizes (at least up to 4x5) seems to be increasing still rather than decreasing, but I wonder how the pandemic will affect the demand, the supply chain, and the overall economy. I'm not too worried about the availability of classic cameras, but I try to strictly limit by budget for such indulgences as I approach retirement, and I remember vividly what happened to the Hasselblad and Rollei markets over the past couple of years. If I were moving to Hasselblad today, I could not afford to get started, let alone get a complete outfit to suit my needs. Mamiya (other than TLR), Pentax, and Fuji 6cm sizes have also gone beyond the point where I'd want to start a new system. I'm thinking the Bronica SLRs are the last affordable system of decent quality out there. I'm also assembling a Nikon F kit, as these prices seem to be rising rapidly as well.

Shooting film with a finely built mechanical camera is one of the great pleasures of life for me, and I want to make sure it's one I'll be able to enjoy for the rest of my life in all its beautiful variations.

Andy