Perez

Agree Omaha! Heck back in the day My Space was gonna be the next AOL....

While I love to see Perez hit the road, there's always that risk of the devil you know...

The world isn't exactly filled with CEOs who think outside the box these days. Greed runs the world. It's not about stay good at what you do - its about satisfying the shareholders.

So, Perez says he will be leaving in a year. Kind of reminds me of when Doprah Winbag announced her show would be leaving in ANOTHER year. No time like the present, I say.

As to the film market 20 years ago - 1993, it was expanding! That is when the new high speed machine was being ramped up so as to meet the demands being placed on EK. And paper was selling as fast as we could make it!

PE

Photo Engineer said:

As to the film market 20 years ago - 1993, it was expanding! That is when the new high speed machine was being ramped up so as to meet the demands being placed on EK. And paper was selling as fast as we could make it!

PE

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Good times.....good times.

I bet back then you could not imagine how bad things would get with film.

Oh yes, some of us could!

By 1993 it was all over but for the shouting and introducing the APS system was major mistake.

Yes, I agree Fred, but all of the manufacturers made the same mistake. Fuji and Agfa bought into it and even helped in the design. All of them had blinders.

The big day of reckoning came in 2005, when Agfa went bankrupt, Kodak left pager manufacturing, and Ilford reorganized. It was a year in which analog sales fell 35% in one quarter.

PE

Photo Engineer said:

Yes, I agree Fred, but all of the manufacturers made the same mistake. Fuji and Agfa bought into it and even helped in the design. All of them had blinders.

The big day of reckoning came in 2005, when Agfa went bankrupt, Kodak left pager manufacturing, and Ilford reorganized. It was a year in which analog sales fell 35% in one quarter.

PE

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And in 2005 we both joined APUG.

Hmmmm

A few days ago I read an article about the long decline of kodak: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11991488/1/kodak-the-end-of-an-american-moment.html
For us youngsters who entered the scene late, wow! I certainly could imagine how it was given the many stories around and it has become a shell of itself.

Given all they have now is building 38 and the huge coating machine... What's gonna happen after the MP 2015 contracts end? The MP industry has shifted to digital really fast. I recall they will have demand for archiving MP film and still film but enough for the b38 machine?

Prest_400 said:

...What's gonna happen after the MP 2015 contracts end?...

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It all depends on what's in the agreement between Kodak and the UK pension plan that's taking marketing/distribution of Kodak film as settlement of the debt Kodak owes it. Nobody's revealing anything about the specifics of that agreement. We shall see...

...and while that new business continues to wait and wait and wait to get up and running, others are attempting to jump in right now and position themselves to fill the vacuum. Most recently the Italian concern for color. And Harman has already arrived for b&w.

With Kodak lounging through its never-ending bankruptcy and Fuji being the last non-bankrupt major color film producer, and itself teetering in its color commitment even as we speak, maybe the Italians think the time is ripe to jump into the emerging low volume color niche market to grab potential market share. If they are right, perhaps they will become the color Ilford instead.

If this new UK Kodak marketing/distribution concern doesn't shake off the traditional Kodak lethargy and get going, they're going to end up still-born.

(I know that the damn lawyers are in charge. But markets don't wait for lawyers.)

Ken

The new UK "Kodak" marketing company is already sourcing film products from third party producers. (AGFA microfilm).

Does anyone think it is coincidental that Ferrania suddenly, from out of nowhere, decides to revive its color negative and reversal film production? Where will they be positioned in 2015?

Ferrania could easily produce motion picture stock for "Kodak" with licensed formulations.

And AGFA is still producing useful color stock with its Aviphot line.

The new UK "Kodak" marketing company will simply source products from various right-sized producers and Eastman Kodak will drift off into the night.

The way I look at this, there will either be a sufficient market for still image film in the future or there won't.

Demand will never be zero, but the question is whether there will be any supply available at a price that the market is willing to pay. Ilford seems to have answered that question WRT B&W. That's encouraging.

What about color? If the motion picture industry sales go away completely, is there enough of a market left to support color film manufacturing? What is the critical price point? Would the market tolerate $15/roll for 120 film? Could film be profitably manufactured at such a price at the quantities the future will demand?

I certainly don't know, but I'm guessing that someone does. Or at least some people are willing to take a crack at it.

The problem I see with Kodak is that everything about the company is set up to be 'big', but the future for this market is 'small'. Very small (at least relative to what Kodak used to be). Culture is a very persistent thing. As I said earlier in this thread, big companies are not gracefully converted into small companies. Its one of the hardest things to do.

I expressed similar concerns in another thread about kodak and film and I mentioned the 2015 MP contracts and basically nothing is known about it and the UK plan that owns still film marketing of Kodak.

omaha said:

The problem I see with Kodak is that everything about the company is set up to be 'big', but the future for this market is 'small'. Very small (at least relative to what Kodak used to be). Culture is a very persistent thing. As I said earlier in this thread, big companies are not gracefully converted into small companies. Its one of the hardest things to do.

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Again, the industry has set this 2015 mark which I understand as a date for almost total conversion.

I realised that Kodak is the sole producer (well, they dominate the MP market) that depends mostly on MP film and how still film is "subsidized" by it. But given after 2015 MP demand will be rolling off and declining and all that EK has is that huge building 38 machine... As told by many here, unsustainable for small capacity manufacture. Well, there are other coating applications but are they relevant enough?

The other day, on their main page I saw one of their industrial printing banners. Seems odd. As of becoming smaller, in the coating department, they could change that huge machine for something small, but I would take that as a really wild and impossible thing.

Fuji is down to 5 emulsions (!) and no MP manufacturing. Perhaps OT but what is known about them? Production facilities et al; ie, their production capacity and intentions. We've got PE who gives us information about EK but little is known (at least it's my perception of it) about Fuji.
My perception of Fuji is that it's reeeallly far away out there.

Prest_400 said:

Fuji is down to 5 emulsions (!)

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Isn't it 10? Or have I missed another few cuts?

Fujicolor C200
Superia 200, 400, 800, 1600
Pro 160ns, 400h
Acros
Provia 100, Velvia 100.

I'm not sure about instant.

Prest_400 said:

Fuji is down to 5 [10?] emulsions (!) and no MP manufacturing.

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As I said, UK-Kodak needs to get off their butts and get going, or they are going to lose out to someone else who did. It's gotten so bad that almost no one still knows that Kodak even makes film anymore. Wait much longer and no one will know that Kodak itself even exists anymore.

By then everyone will be loading the reengineered—and easily available from multiple other distribution sources—Ferrania C-41 and/or E-6 color films into their roll cameras and film holders. They will have discovered that "Hey... Guess what? This stuff isn't so bad after all..."

They will also have learned to live with any minor quality-control issues just fine. If it's an especially important photograph, they will simply push the button twice or flip the holder over for insurance. Just like St. Ansel, Uncle Earl, and everyone else did for decades. No big deal.

The Kodak-brand mindshare will just continue fading into the dim past...

Ken

perkeleellinen said:

Isn't it 10? Or have I missed another few cuts?

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Sorry, I was thinking about the Professional films based on the packaging redesign they did. Kinda jumped too fast. Also, due to the multiple discontinuations lately I lost the count...
They redesigned the packaging of Acros, Provia and Velvia (50/100) and 400H. Pro 160NS (?) is rather lost around, I thought it became unavailable or perhaps only limited to some markets.
So it's 11 emulsions: 5 consumer C41; 3 Reversal E6, and 2 C41 Pro films & 1 B&W. As of instant, there is at least Wide instax and mini instax. Not that bad, if they can keep going as they are now.

Kodak is 2 Consumer C41 (Gold 200/400), 4 Pro C41, 3-5* B&W and no reversal.
*BW400CN and 320TXP which are available in limited formats.

Indeed Ken!
The power of Kodak's brand has rusted a bit but it's still important; or it can be again if they promoted it again. Somehow consumers think film is gone and I don't know how they imagined it, probably by not seeing it anymore; and some heavy discontinuations that were misleading ("No more kodachrome! That's no more film, right?"). But KODAK is Film, and film is Kodak; from a certain branding point of view.
I travelled to SE Asia (Philippines) 3 years ago and a name and verb for photographing and cameras is "Kodak". Just as it was used to "xerox" (they still use it too).

As of market position I'd not put much energy into convincing the layman consumer of the benefits of shooting film but just tell "film is there". Set awareness of the brand, getting more or less known; But of course, catering the advanced amateur, enthusiast and professionals. Seek to convert some digital photographers by presenting this alternative, which they can use along too. Explore "alternative" distribution channels, etc.
Yep, they should start moving soon.

As of Ferrania, if they did the same noise as the TIP guys did a while ago... Though it's a bit early and Nicola must be busy with the process.

perkeleellinen said:

Isn't it 10? Or have I missed another few cuts?

Fujicolor C200
Superia 200, 400, 800, 1600
Pro 160ns, 400h
Acros
Provia 100, Velvia 100.

I'm not sure about instant.

Click to expand...

2 Instax sizes and 2 instant peel apart films if I recall correctly.

3 Peel apart at the moment, FP100C in 4x5 is back (at least temporarily)

Fuji makes some beautiful film products. I hope they keep it up.

Kodak may have a swimmer's chance in a pool of sharks if Perez would actually leave.

I think he's waiting to ensure the zombie corpse is good and dead.

Guys, what is sold is not an emulsion, it is a PRODUCT. An emulsion is a light sensitive material within the product, and confusing the two is no appropriate when describing the product. This is particularly true when a product may contain 2 or more emulsions and several products may share an emulsion.

PE

I hadn't visited Kodak's page for a while and the last time I did these days I saw their new banners for industrial printing. Weird to see having known the company as film manufacturer.

Photo Engineer said:

Guys, what is sold is not an emulsion, it is a PRODUCT. An emulsion is a light sensitive material within the product, and confusing the two is no appropriate when describing the product. This is particularly true when a product may contain 2 or more emulsions and several products may share an emulsion.

PE

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Whoops, got some vocabulary mixup there. I've read enough of your material to know not to mix it: coating machines, different layers contained within films, etc. It's good to (re)learn something everyday.

The DOW Jones business news describes the products being transferred as follows:

"The deal, which covers such Kodak products and services as cameras,
retail photo-printing kiosks and scanners, will not only resolve the $2.8
billion in U.K. pension claims but will also bring in $650 million in cash and
noncash consideration to Kodak's bankruptcy estate."

It will probably also include the production of color paper (Endura), but IDK.

This statement by the DJBN does not seem to include film production. Just to clarify. Sales is another matter.

PE

BTW, my book is printed on a Kodak high speed industrial color printer.

PE

Photo Engineer said:

As to the film market 20 years ago - 1993, it was expanding! That is when the new high speed machine was being ramped up so as to meet the demands being placed on EK. And paper was selling as fast as we could make it!

PE

Click to expand...

Oh yeah! Good times they were; bring on the APS baby!! LOL